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BOR will soon have 484m shares in issue - giving a market cap of 416m @ 86p share price.

FOGL has 320m shares in issue - giving a market cap of 284m @ 89p share price (yes FOGL is cheap)


If we take off the 55m shares coming to BOR they had 429m shares and got to 133p share price on excitement over a potential 760mmbo rec. find.

Market cap circa 570m. I do think DES got to 600m market cap ahead of Liz results.


So if we take 600m market cap as the "price they go to just before results" then applying that formula in future should see :


BOR going to 123p ahead of Stebbing results (But Stebbing is bigger times 4 over Darwin) (600m mc divided by 484m shares)

FOGL going to 187p ahead of Loligo (But Loligo is bigger times 16 over Darwin) (600m mc divided by 320m shares)


Anyway, those will be the target prices many people may have for the share price to be before the big news comes - just the pure "speculation value" pre-results.

I'm simply moving stop losses up on both futures and reinvesting unrealised profits.

A good write up on CFK.

http://www.economist.com/node/21553031?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/ar/cristinascrapesthebarrel

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For those looking at the economics, the minimum size field for dry gas is 5 Tcf, thats a dry gas target for BOR for Darwin (E+W). Of course, if its very rich in condensates that 5 Tcf will come downwards.




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With the price holding well and most long term holders sat on 50% profits - its no surprise the muppet comments of earlier this week have all stopped and those making them are now gone.

Strange places BB's.

ffs, stop prattling and rattling for half an hour at least - a week would be better

Pro

With the greatest respect old chap, there is hardly any reason to comment - it has all been said! Most of us just sit and wait to see what happens. Most of us I suspect do not need to harp on about what profit or loss we have made in order to inflate anonymous egoes. Some sciolists will want to post regardless - as you say "Strange places BBs"

Whilst your resourcefulness and dedication is admirable, you DO bang on with rather unconnected 'cut and paste' items across multiple threads which becomes tedious for the average reader.

By referring to those that do NOT hold the same views as yourgoodself as 'muppets' it shows you in a rather arrogant light and it is hardly surprising that other posters take a pop at you.

Just my 2p worth!

EDITED To add the word "not" where I had a finger fart

avsec - people can have different views, like cynic, I would not class him as a muppet. To see the muppets look to the posts on Monday.

:)

how flattering :-) ..... shame avsec couldn't write what he meant though!

We all cannot write what we really want to say.................. ;)

tomasz can :-))

i do but pro can't see it lol.,.

Strong end to the week by BOR as well as FOGL. Will be news for sure next week, Stebbing spud, but will there be anything else as well ?? ;)

cynic PP earns his living from ramping and the lemmings that follow him.

There is just the fact that BOR have probably discovered a massive gas condensate reservoir worth a fortune.....and Stebbing could be anything....now once we have FOGL results plus more drilling from another rig later this will all be tied in together....great stuff....one not to forget is CHAR oil. in Namibia (Africa)...and that could ht the target as well...5 wells to be drilled....and number one is ongoing....

Are you pro's brother by any chance rf.,.

namibia juxtaposed with south falklands ...... why didn't i pay attention in geography 50 years ago?

A link to an interesting PDF about about LNG future demands.

http://www.gdfsuez.com/document/?f=files/fr/sg-oil-oil-services-lng-conference-april-3-2012-vdef3bis-1.pdf

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Numis: Borders & Southern (Buy, TP: 175p)

Opening up the South Falkland Basin

In our view, Borders and Southern's Darwin exploration well has proven a working hydrocarbon system in the South Falkland Basin, confirming the existence of an extensive marine source previously known to exist to the East and West of the company's acreage. The Darwin well appears to have hit high quality Lower Cretaceous reservoir, in-line with prognosis, with a thick, homogeneous gas condensate bearing interval.

Clearly, understanding the liquid content of the discovery will be key in determining its value. Based on the aerial extent, net pay and reservoir quality of the Darwin discovery we believe that a commercial stand-alone discovery remains a possibility.
We raise our target price from 86p/share to 175p/share, adjusting our valuation for the possibility of a commercial rich gas discovery at Darwin and a partially de-risked EMV for Stebbing.

• Opening up the South Falkland Basin: In our view, the Darwin well result helps de-risk the South Falkland Basin, confirming the existence of source rock, thick high quality sands and robust play types. Next steps in the SFB exploration programme include two important catalysts: 1) Determination of liquid content at Darwin (expected in approximately five weeks) 2) Testing the fold belt play type. Stebbing is the next prospect in the drilling schedule (expected to spud within one week) - a prospect for which the company estimates a P50 recoverable resource of 1280mmboe.

• Darwin - a potential stand-alone development: In our view, it would be wrong to rule out Darwin as a commercial stand-alone development. Detail released on aerial extent and net pay suggest a material discovery and we estimate recoverable gas at 2.3 to 3.7tcf. In our view, if the gas is sufficiently rich, a >200mmbbl condensate development remains a possibility and could be commercialised. Given the location of Darwin, we believe the most likely stand-alone development concept would involve condensate recovery with 100% of lean gas recycled back in to the reservoir - a development concept analogous to the Bayu-Undan phase I field development in the Timor Sea.

• Valuation: We have adjusted our NAV to include a rich gas discovery for Darwin risked at 50% commercial COS, and included an EMV valuation for Stebbing which now assumes a 30% commercial COS (10% oil case, 10% rich gas, 10% dry gas case). Please see note for full details. Our 175p/share target price stands at a 50% discount to NAV (350p/share) in order to pre-empt the dilutive effect of future share placings and farm-downs.

I have heard there is a chance FOGL will now drill Loligo next.

BOR announced the Darwin results and intention to drill Stebbing, but then did a placing to do additional work on Darwin (which may include more downhole seismic, neutron logs etc....)

It could be, so I heard, that BOR wanted to run loads more tests at Darwin, hence the quick placing. Owing to the need for time to analyze those tests and their implications they may have agreed with FOGL for FOGL to drill next at Loligo.

So at the moment everything is in limbo as FOGL must talk with their potential farm in partner before any announcement can be made.

Interesting, and possible that next is Loligo and then Stebbing. FOGL are drill ready as all their plans were made for May spud, which slipped to June.