I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

RESULTS FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2013

Key points
· Funds under management (FUM) down 5% to $54.1 billion (31 December 2012: $57.0 billion), FUM excluding guaranteed products up 1% to $51.8 billion (2012: $51.3 billion)
o Gross sales up 26% to $16.1 billion (2012: $12.8 billion)
o Redemptions down 2% to $19.7 billion (2012: $20.1 billion)
o Net outflows down 51% to $3.6 billion (2012: outflows of $7.3 billion), Q4 net inflows of $0.7 billion
o Investment movement of $4.3 billion (2012: $1.3 billion)
o FX translation effects and other movements of -$3.6 billion (2012: -$3.7 billion)
· Adjusted profit before tax (PBT) up 8% to $297 million in 2013 (2012: $275 million)
o Adjusted net management fee PBT down 20% to $175 million (2012: $220 million)
o Adjusted net performance fee PBT up 122% to $122 million (2012: $55 million)
· Statutory PBT for the year ended 31 December 2013 of $56 million (2012: $748 million loss)
· On track to deliver total cost savings of $270 million by the end of 2015
· Proposed final dividend of 5.3 cents per share bringing total dividend for the year to 7.9 cents
· Intention to repurchase $115 million of shares
· Surplus regulatory capital of $760 million at 31 December 2013, $550 million pro-forma for final dividend and share repurchase.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4762942

Merrill Lynch note:
"There were a number of positives in Man’s FY 13 results. Firstly, the earnings were well ahead of estimates. Secondly, flows beat our estimates. Thirdly, capital management was strong, with the company adding a $115m buyback to a full dividend. We don’t expect FY 14 numbers to change much, but the tone of these results is good.
EPS was a striking 38% ahead of our consensus-like estimates. There are a few components to this. Core revenues were in line (see the table overleaf for details), but performance fees were 36% ahead at $223m. GLG appears to be behind this. Overall costs were lower than our expectations, leading to PBT adjusted for exceptionals to be 30% ahead of our estimates. A lower than expected tax rate led to the 38% eps outperformance.
Welcome as this is, we think a lot of the outperformance is not repeatable. Cost savings have come through more quickly than the company had suggested but the overall cost reduction target hasn’t changed. Also, the tax rate is down to provisions from prior years being released. As a result, we don’t expect major changes to our numbers. AUM was 3% ahead of our estimates, with net sales of $700m (we were expecting $800m outflows). Star performers were GLG alternatives and long only. The European Long Short product and Japan Core Alpha were key here. Within quant, AHL Evolution sold well. Whilst this is a good performance, the outlook statement is cautious, and ELS seems near capacity. Overall, our expectations for FY 14 still strike us as realistic, with flows picking up throughout the year.
We think these numbers will be taken well. The company has done well to get costs down rapidly and the extra performance fees in H2 are welcome. The capital return should also support the share price. There remains plenty for the company to do – the US remains a tricky area, for instance, it seems – and we don’t expect massive changes to numbers, but H2 is a positive step, we think."

Exane note today:
"It may not be a wholly smooth ride from here on, but it now looks as if Man Group can be once more analysed as a viable operating company rather than a run-off situation. As well as a second consecutive quarter of positive net new money, with revenues in line with our estimates, the company is ahead of target on its cost reduction program. We had previously not been giving much credit for the cost cuts (our old forecasts had non-compensation expenses falling from $363m in 2013 to $255m in 2015e; our new numbers start from the outturn of $323m in 2013 FY and fall to $213m). It is this reduction in the operating costs, combined with the effect of the successful redemption of the debt and preference shares, which is driving our EPS upgrade of over 20% for 2014e and 2015e on an underlying basis.
New business is being driven by GLG Japan Pure Alpha, GLG European Equity Long/Short and AHL Evolution (between them, these accounted for 45% of gross sales). Management cautioned on the conference call that sales had been driven by “lumpy” single transactions, and so could be volatile going forward; set against this, the substantial investments made in distribution capacity in 2013 will begin to deliver in 2014e and 2015e. We continue to value Man Group on the assumption that GLG is an active franchise deserving a 14.5x multiple while the remainder of the group is a run-off deserving a 10x multiple; the EPS upgrades and rolling forward now deliver a valuation of 112p, so we set our price target at around 110p. We noted in October (“Stabilisation is better than decline”) that “half of AuM and 60% of management fees are coming from depreciating franchises”. This is no longer the case. As of FY13, GLG represented $30.1bn out of a total $54.1bn AuM; GLG plus the fund-of-funds business accounted for more than half of gross management fees. We have upgraded our recommendation to Outperform."

Seems like EMG may have turned the corner! Now 106p.

Needs to turn a few more corners before it gets to my bus stop but am grateful it's on the way!

Cheers harry i caught the bus

Stay on till my stop and you'll be rich!

HSBC note out today:
"The two material headwinds seem to have now reduced materially…
a)Reduced dependence on guaranteed funds: Given the intervention of policymakers in financial markets, we would expect AHL to struggle to deliver a good performance near term. However, given that AUM in high margin guaranteed product have reduced significantly, it will account for only 10% of group net management fee revenues in FY’14e compared to c.30% in H1’12.
b)Pressure on revenue margins: revenue margins across the product categories were expected to decline due to higher proportion of money coming from institutional investors. However, now we believe that other than AHL open ended product, revenue margins have stabilized or trending slightly upwards given the pickup in demand from retail investors.
Cost savings: Management is taking out costs from the business faster than its guidance, something we expect to continue in FY’14e. Rundown of unamortised deferrals from USD 54m at Dec’12 to USD 24m at Dec’13 is likely to help the reduction in staff costs further.
Back to inflow territory: With the headwinds from AHL reducing and sentiment towards Europe improving, Man has started to receive net inflows. After 8 consistent quarters of outflows till Q2’13, Man has reported net inflows of USD 0.7bn and USD 0.7bn in Q3’13 and Q4’13 respectively. Management has also launched a number of new products which have helped develop a positive flow momentum.
Capital return: As the fixed cost base continues to run down and the capital tied up in guaranteed products frees up, the regulatory capital requirements will reduce further. This is likely to increase the surplus capital position enabling management to distribute further capital to shareholders. We estimate that Man can deliver c.8% capital return in FY’14e, with 6% in the form of normal dividends and additional 2% via special divi / buybacks.
We upgrade to OW(V): We increase our FY’14e EPS by 48.2% due to recovery in flows and faster than expected cost saves. We increase our TP to 125p (previously 82p) and upgrade to OW(V). Excluding surplus capital, shares are trading at a PE of 9.5x for FY14e earnings."

Ex-divi wed 23rd Apr (3.19p)

Interim Management Statement

Key points

· Funds under management (FUM) as at 31 March 2014 of $55.0 billion (31 December 2013: $54.1 billion)
· Net inflows in the quarter of $2.0 billion, comprising sales of $6.5 billion and redemptions of $4.5 billion with net inflows into GLG alternatives and long only funds being partially offset by net outflows from FRM funds and guaranteed products
· Overall investment movement of negative $0.7 billion in the quarter:
o AHL Diversified programme was down 2.2% in the quarter which was the main driver of the negative investment movement of $0.3 billion in Quant alternatives strategies
o Performance in GLG alternative strategies was flat overall with positive performance in credit strategies being offset by negative performance in equity and macro strategies
o Performance at FRM was positive overall which increased FUM by $0.1 billion in the quarter. FRM Diversified strategies were up 0.5% in the quarter
o The majority of GLG Long only strategies had negative investment performance in the quarter. Japan CoreAlpha strategy was down 5.9% which contributed to the majority of the negative investment movement of $0.5 billion
· FX movements of positive $0.3 billion in the quarter, driven by the weakening of the US dollar against the the Japanese Yen
· Other negative movements of $0.7 billion driven by guaranteed product degears of $0.3 billion and product maturities and other movements of $0.4 billion
· Completed $68 million of the $115 million share repurchase programme announced on 6 March 2014 equating to 40 million shares

Comment on press speculation
Man Group plc notes the recent press speculation and confirms that it is in discussions concerning the possible acquisition of Numeric Holdings LLC. These discussions are ongoing and may or may not lead to a transaction.

Further announcements will be made if and when appropriate.

Panmure Gordon note:
"Following a press leak Man Group has confirmed it is in talks to acquire Numeric Holding, a Boston based fund manager with $14bn of AUM which is being sold by TA Holdings. If the revenue yield was 1% and it made 30% operating margin this would represent £40M of profit enhancement.

Estimates Our estimates are circa 20% ahead of consensus at £290m current year, which are assuming a £155m performance fee. It seems this could add 20% to the earning potential of Man Group.

Valuation Man group trades at 4.8% of AUM. The lowly PE of 11X and yield of 4.8% underline the high yielding and cash generative nature of Man Group’s AUM. Man Group had excess capital of $1bn at Dec 13 so this would be paid for in cash.

Conclusion Acquiring its way out of a tight corner is the right thing to do. This could mark the turning point. Maintain BUY."

Pine Grove, a US-based credit-focused fund of fund manager, will add to Man Group's fund of hedge funds business in the US, and further diversify its product offering
London and New York, 9th June 2014 - Man Group plc ("Man Group") has agreed to acquire Pine Grove Asset Management LLC ("Pine Grove"), a US-based fund of hedge fund manager specializing in the management of credit-focused hedge fund portfolios with approximately $1.0 billion of assets under management. The transaction is subject to customary closing requirements and is expected to close in the third quarter of 2014. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Pine Grove is a credit-focused fund of hedge fund manager, founded in 1994, with offices in Summit, NJ and New York City. The firm is employee-owned, with senior investment professionals having on average 18 years of direct investment management experience. Since inception, the firm's hedge fund selections and portfolio management have delivered attractive risk-adjusted returns across market cycles. Approximately two thirds of Pine Grove's assets are from institutional investors, primarily US-based, with the remaining third from US high net worth individuals and family offices.

Pine Grove will enhance Man Group's presence in the US and add to Man Group's fund of hedge funds business, FRM. Pine Grove will also reinforce FRM's efforts to offer clients a wide variety of investment opportunities including SEC-registered US 40 Act funds and complementary fund of hedge fund products.

ACQUISITION OF NUMERIC HOLDINGS LLC

Overview
Man Group plc ("Man") announces that it has entered into a conditional agreement to acquire Numeric Holdings LLC ("Numeric") (the "Acquisition").

Numeric is a privately-owned, Boston-based quantitative equity manager with $14.7 billion of funds under management as at 31 May 2014.

Founded in 1989, Numeric has an attractive and established investment track record across a range of long only and long-short, fundamentally based quantitative strategies. Based on annualised returns, over 95% of Numeric's current strategies have historically outperformed their selected benchmark over 1, 3 and 5 years(1). 100% of Numeric's long only strategies covered by eVestment rank in the top quartile of their respective peer groups over 1, 3 and 5 years(1).

Numeric's business has seen substantial growth in recent years, with funds under management increasing from $7.6 billion at the end of 2012 to $14.7 billion as at 31 May 2014. Numeric generated EBITDA of $47 million for the year ended 31 December 2013.

Under the terms of the Acquisition, Man will pay $219 million in cash at completion, with up to $275 million of further consideration payable to a broad group of the Numeric management team and employees ("Numeric Management") following the fifth anniversary of completion under an option arrangement, dependent on the run rate profitability of the business. The regulatory capital usage associated with the Acquisition is expected to be approximately $325 million.

RBC note today (Summary):
"Conclusion: This morning we indicated that the Numeric transaction “allows Man to diversify away from underperforming products (such as AHL), and gives Man access to US distribution. We believe that both of these are positives.” We also indicated our view that the purchase price “is very fair to Man Group shareholders, and that the acquisition structure adequately aligns Numeric’s management interests with Man Group shareholders.” Post the call, we retain these views.
The acquisition of Numeric is not about synergies (management has admitted that they expect no synergies), it is all about diversification and expansion into the US. The acquisition takes away $325 million in surplus capital (approximately 11p per share, assuming 1.78 billion fully diluted shares and an Fx rate of 1.700), but adds – at least -$30 million in run-rate management fee EBITDA (10p per share assuming a 10x EBITDA multiple, 1.78 billion fully diluted shares and an Fx rate of 1.700), performance fee potential (we believe another $20 million is likely, or 3p per share assuming a 5x EBITDA multiple, 1.78 fully diluted shares and an Fx rate of 1.700) and immediate access to US distribution (hard to put a value on, but if Man is able to sell its existing product more strongly into the US, the result in flows could be substantial). In our opinion, the deal makes strategic and financial sense and the positive share price reaction is warranted."

Citigroup Neutral 105.10 105.10 88.00 102.00 Upgrades

StockMarketWire.com
Citigroup has upgraded its recommendation on Man Group (LON:EMG) to "neutral" from "sell" after updating its estimates to reflect yesterday's announcement that the company has agreed to purchase Numeric. Numeric is a privately owned, Boston-based, quantitative equity manager. Analysts have upped their target price to 102 pence per share from 88 pence. Earnings per share estimates have been increased by 22 per cent for fiscal year 2015. However, the broker stated that its pre-deal concerns remain. Citi said: "Numeric reduces Man's reliance on GLG for fund flows, and extra earnings raise our target price: so we upgrade to Neutral. But we remain concerned that recent poor GLG fund performance could reduce future GLG flows, perhaps even leading to net outflows.
Interestingly, both Numis and Espirito Santo Investment Bank both reaffirmed "sell" rating in separate notes to clients, yesterday. ESIB said: "We retain doubts around Man's ability to maintain its margins as the flow dynamic within the business evolves. However, this morning's [yesterday's] use of surplus capital appears to us to be sensible."

On the move again.

Approaching the 2 year high.

nearly back in the money ..... keep going!!!