Star Energy is currently testing the Avington well in Southern England.
This will take about 4 weeks an RNS news feed said, it started on 25/06/06.

I hope it proves positive so we get a good share price rise!
We are 5% holders but i'm not sure how much in pence potential this is worth for the company.

Another good reason to hold on to this share.

$100 a barrel for 6Bn++ barrels is rather a lot more than NOP is valued at today.

NOP Italy deatils
http://www.northpet.com/operations/italy/


Way more detail in this article though.

In the Sicily Channel, the focus was over the G.R.17.NP., G.R.18.NP, and G.R.19.NP permits. Regional modeling suggests the Lower Tertiary reservoirs are the most promising targets, with the Cretaceous containing the primary source rock. Northerns geologists have identified several billion barrel-plus prospects developed as drape features over underlying thrust anticlines.

Another new 200 km (124 mi) 2D survey over the C.R147.NP permit in the Straits of Sicily, again on the median line, confirmed two significant prospects with potential reserves of 400 MMbbl and 200 MMbbl.

It also estimates the potential oil in place in six other drilling prospects identified by Enterprise on the two licenses at 1.26 to 6 Bbbl.

There could be further targets in three adjacent offshore licenses, for which Northern holds preliminary awards. According to Northerns geologists, the southern Adriatic is under-explored, despite most of the wells to date being discoveries. There are analogies to Mexicos prolific Golden Lane and Poza Rica trend, which includes the multi-billion barrel Poza Rica field.

http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/article-display/324175/articles/offshore/volume-68/issue-3/special-report-italy/independents-leading-exploration-revival-off-southern-italy.html

Option to get in before the spudding here. 1Bn+ barrels in Europe is an amazing potential discovery. NOP just 114.95m today.

Sicily drill decision imminent


Published: Dec 27, 2010
Offshore staff

LONDON -- Northern Petroleum and its partner Shell Italia will decide before end-March whether to drill in their Thrust and Fold Belt permits offshore Sicily.

Permits CR146 has a prospect with estimated resources of 1 Bbbl-plus.

Northern adds that the CR147 permit has been made more attractive by ADX Energys recent announcement of the Lambouka in nearby Tunisian waters.

The farm-out process for both permits continues.

12/28/2010
http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/article-display/3801899726/articles/offshore/drilling-completion/north-sea-northwest-europe-2/2010/12/sicily-drill_decision.html

The Golden Cross is here, as the 50EMA just crossed the rising 200EMA.

200 trade just went through. Here is a theory.

"If you believe in MM signals, 200 shares means "I need shares badly,but do not take the stock down."

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=57812748

Stop loss heaven for the MM's

So the 200 trade(see below) at 14:45 was a signal that someone was accumulating to fill an order, but keeping the SP supported as per the 200 signal was not filling the order so following the 300 trade(see below) at 15:52 they dropped the SP and hit a load of stop losses to try and fill the order. Not rocket science is it.

MM SIGNALS

100 > I need shares

200 > I need shares badly but dont take it down to get em

300 > Take the price down to get shares....

400 > Trade it sideways based on Supply and Demand

500 > Gap one way or the other, usually to the direction

of the 500 trade. Sometimes -if in the middle -keep the price right where it is.

A bit disappointing for the sp at close of play....

And the 500, 400 trades earlier in the day?

Guess best to ignore those.

Here we go again with more MM games to fill orders. There is no excuse for this volatility on such low volume. Look at the effect on the ASK of the 600 trade at 8:24:54.

Spread is now getting wider as they drop the BID to hit stop losses but move the ASK up to deter buyers.

Need more buyers but looks like it will have to wait until trading resumes in 2011.

The Golden Cross has happened and the UK oil well results are on the way, so I am confident that the SP will be much higher in a few weeks time.

Maybe 110 today/tomorrow, bottom of the uptrend channel if you look at the chart. Then POP back to 130p+ again as the day trader buys kick in.

Just need the well results and its GAME OVER for the MM's, they know it too, hence why they are creating such high volatility from such tiny volume before the news arrives!

Amazing that every time I add 5k shares to my test buys, the SP goes UP and UP and UP. This shows how valuable the stock really is to the MM's. If you want it, you have to pay a 2.86p premium just to get 80k shares instead of 5k. Meanwhile they bu66er round with the SP to get more stock back into their books before they hike the price back up on the next buy volume increase.

Buy 5000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.13p

Buy 10000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.474p

Buy 15000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.526p

Buy 20000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.552p

Buy 25000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.6043p

Buy 30000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.78p

Buy 35000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 118.88p

Buy 40000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 119p

Buy 45000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 119.33p

Buy 50000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 119.6p

Buy 55000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 119.87p

Buy 60000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 120.11p

Buy 65000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 120.35p

Buy 70000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 120.59p

Buy 75000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 120.8p

Buy 80000 NOP - NORTHERN PETROLEUM ORD GBP0.05 at a price of 120.99p (MAX offered)

Why is it amazing? MMs are obliged to deal in the NMS, anything above and you will likely pay a premium, nothing unusual in that at all.

For what it's worth my observations of dead crosses and golden crosses seem to indicate the SP usually gravitates back to the MAs before continuing the trend.

ptholden, please show me on the chart of the last 3 NOP Golden Crosses exactly where the SP moved back the the MA before moving up, it never did before rising first. If you look back on the charts you will realise that it is now past tense, so the MA's have moved up to meet the price over the following 50 and 200 days, not the other way round.

The SP should not rise on every 5k shares if there is the right amount of stock in the free float, it is absurd to suggest that I should pay a premium on 10,000 shares over 5000, or on 50,000 over 45,000. A premium on 50,000 over 5,000 would be the expected change, then another premium at 100,000.

"In French Guiana interpretation of the newly acquired 3D data set continues with the maturation of several Jubilee type prospects, Tullow stated.

"The first and most exciting of which, Zaedyus, will be drilled in Q1 2011.

Tullows comments are from this mornings comprehensive interim management statement, in which it highlighted that the Jubilee will come on-stream in December to produce 58,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day - the top end of expectations.

First oil production from the Jubilee field is expected early next month and will transform Group production next year.

Jubilees production will ramp up to around 120,000 barrels per day over three to six months.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/22885/wessex-exploration-welcomes-tullow-oil-comments-on-guyane-maritime-license-22885.html



So Zaedyus is similar to Jubilee. Northern have a net beneficial 1.25% interest in Zaedyus.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20101214070000P1197



Therefore, if Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5 to 65% increase on its production today.

Top

My comment re crosses refered to the Market in general, not specifically NOP.

As NOP is a SETsMM stock I suggest if you wish to buy a large qty, use DMA and fill your order through the book. Although probable, MM manipulation is less of an issue with SETs.

Oh and the SP action merely reflects the orders on the book, not necessarily MM activity.

FROM LSE BB

Sebwinder
NOP - simple chartToday 12:41

http://www.screencast.com/users/Sebwinder/folders/Jing/media/cdc9c11d-d975-48b4-8613-ec27abf99f3c


Not only the new trend but a confirmed Golden Cross, with the 50 day average going over the rising 200 day average on both EMA and now SMA, this is one of the most bullish indicators you can get.

Get stuck in!

From Scotty1 on advfn.

7 t1ps for 2011 (Resources)
Today (2010-12-31 10:03:14)
Print this Article 7 t1ps for 2011 (Resources

3.Northern Petroleum (NOP) at 115p valuing it at c106 million. Northern has had a great few months. Not only are its Dutch gas assets coming onstream faster than we had expected but also the cold Northern winter has pushed the gas price ahead sharply. The company will - I predict - flog its UK assets during 2011 for at least 10 million. That would leave it sitting on 40 million of cash. Holland should be generating an annualised profit of 20 million for 2011 and on a 5 multiple (low given the growth potential) it has to be worth 100 million. In Italy I expect that Shell will, before Easter, commit to a huge onshore jv with Northern acreage into which it has farmed in. That - and news of other farm in deals elsewhere across the vast acreage Northern sits on - should tickle the fancy of many. Valuing Northern's Italian reserves at 3 a barrel (very mean indeed) they add 150 million to a s-o-t-p valuation. And there is the wild card of Guyane where Northern has a tiny stake in a huge block where there will be drilling this year. Call that a bonus ( although it could be a 7 figure bonus). Even without the bonus the s-o-t-p valuation is 290 million or 318p per share. With upside from a) sentiment if (I think when) oil prices surge, Italy when Shell commits, Guyane and a re-rating of Holland as output ( and gas prices) surge this is a share which could almost treble in 2011. It is my top oil pick and although well up on our original 13.75p tip price, at 115p Northern is a strong buy at up to 145p with a 350p target. This stock is held in the Growth Fund not the Gold Fund for a rather obvious reason.

Max buy yesterday 80,000 shares, max buy today 25,000 shares. Free float running low.

Tip for 2011 from The Times.

Tempus Tips for 2011

* BHP Billiton, BG, Northern Petroleum, Catlin Group, Tullett Prebon, Intermediate Capital Group, Cookson Group, Capita, F&C Asset Management and e2v technologies.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/new-year-papers-estonia-joins-crisis-hit-euro-club-others-wary-business-money-and-tips/a460082/full

Goldman Sachs Note from November 2010 where they initiated coverage with a 189p target, with the initial one prospect(of six if I remember corretcly) offshore Italy offering 500% upside potential on that. Italy drilling decision has to be made by Shell by end of March. Goldman Sachs have put Q3 2011 as the drilling date, therefore NOP could be 189p+500% = 9.45 in 2011.

Source of opportunity
Northern Petroleum offers, in our view, an attractive combination of strong core value in the Netherlands, and the possibility for high-impact exploration in the longer term. We believe that the companys producing and discovered gas assets in the Netherlands and other core value gives 93% upside to the current share price,
before accounting for liquidity adjustments, and that the stock is therefore inexpensive. There are exploration catalysts in the Netherlands too, which we believe could add 10% to our valuation over the next 2-3 years. The real potential in our view, however, lies in the companys assets in Italy where it holds a number of offshore exploration licences with substantial potential. West of Sicily, the company has brought in Shell as a partner which gives a degree of credibility to the play, while in the South Adriatic Sea the company currently is 100% owner. We are cautious on the ability to monetize oil resources in Italy, noting the difficulties that companies have had in sanctioning assets such as Tempa Rossa and give the companys Italian oil assets a 75% political risking on top of the required geological risking. (We note that the company is confident the recent ban on drilling in Italian waters within five nautical miles of the coast should have limited or no effect on its prospects as they are further offshore than the areas the ban impacts.) In the event that exploration is successful, and the resource can be monetized, the potential is vast: success for one of the companys assets in the West of Sicily would add almost 500% to our valuation. The companys 1.25% stake in Tullows exploration block in Guyana is also of potential interest, despite the stake being small, as it offers large volumes and the potential for follow-on drilling in the event of success. We initiate coverage of the company with a Buy rating and a price target of 189p.

Catalyst
Continued growth from the companys assets in the Netherlands is a relatively low risk catalyst. We expect the prospect in Guyana to be drilled in the coming months. We do not expect significant activity in Italy in the near term, but the approach of drilling in the country should also help share price performance.

Valuation
Our 12-month SOTP price target is calculated using a US$85/bl assumed oil price. We include risked value for two prospects in the West of Sicily licence in Italy but apply a 75% political risking on top of geological risk, and also apply a 50% discount to these catalysts as we expect them to be drilled later than 12 months from now.

Key risks
Key downside risks to our view and target price are a weakening of the European gas price, cost overruns and delays in the development of the companys assets in the Netherlands or delays in exploration and sanctioning activities in Europe.

Page 250
http://www.mediafire.com/?i5bdmxxpmo6tm16

This applies to all oil companies, but just from NOP's view it means greater revenues in 2011, which leads to an increased valuation as the market continually prices in the oil price rise. Golman Sachs valuation is 189p based on $85 a barrel, yet 2011 looks to have an average near 25% higher than that, suggesting the NOP valuation for 2011 should be 25% higher at 236p

"The forecasts for oil, like the outlook for the US economy, are almost universally positive. A double digit oil price is a thing of 2010, in 2011 expectations are centering on a price closer to $110, probably higher. Already weve seen comments out of the OPEC that the global economy can cope with an oil price of $100, so dont be surprised if the oil cartel begins to increase its price target."

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Gold-oil-copper-silver-iron-ore-commodities-metals-pd20101231-CMTTN?OpenDocument