On 3rd July PFC announced that it was trading well ahead of expectations. Not surprisingly, sp jumped but has now fallen back pretty much to the same level as before the announcement.

While perhaps not as exciting as finding the next Cairn, remember that in the goldrush days, it was rarely the prospectors who made the money, but rather the suppliers of the spades and tents and stuff - e.g. Levis if memory serves me aright.

PETROFAC TO BUILD GAS RECEIVING TERMINAL IN TURKEY
Petrofac has been awarded an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contract, valued at approximately 340 million euros, with South Stream Transport B.V., a wholly owned subsidiary of GAZPROM, for the development of onshore pipelines and a gas receiving terminal near Kıyıköy in Turkey.

Through its EPCm business, Petrofac has been undertaking early works since April, which includes FEED verification, detailed design and procurement for the project which is associated with the offshore section of the TurkStream Gas Pipeline.

Under the contract, Petrofac will provide engineering, procurement and construction for the receiving terminal, which will be ready for commercial operations in December 2019. When completed, the facility will receive 31.5 billion cubic metres of gas annually from the TurkStream pipeline originating from the compressor station in Anapa, Russia.

Commenting on the award, Roberto Bertocco, Managing Director, EPCm for Petrofac Engineering and Production Services said: "We're delighted to be working with South Stream Transport to help open up a vital gas export channel to Turkey and Southeast Europe.

"We have been working collaboratively and successfully with our client's team for the past five months to establish the project. We now look forward to progressing to the next phase where our focus is on achieving safe and effective delivery in line with South Stream Transport's goals and expectations."

Anyone subscribing to the MoneyAM Level 2 platform please take note that most days it is not reporting the correct Trade High nor Trade Low information and "some days" not reporting the correct Opening Price or Closing Price.

The reason is because MoneyAM's Level 2 system is not sensing the Auto Trades or Ordinary Trades correctly so is wrongly reporting them

MoneyAM has been unable to fix the fault for over 8 weeks now but are still charging full price for their Level 2

StockMarketWire.com
Petrofac was awarded a contract worth more than $700m by Sakhalin Energy Investment for its onshore processing facility (OPF) on Sakhalin Island.

The project comprises a lump-sum engineering, procurement and offshore fabrication component, as well as a reimbursable element for construction and site services.

The scope of work includes inlet separation and feed gas compression facilities, a new flare system, utilities, substations and associated buildings, a temporary beach landing facility, refurbishment of the existing camp, temporary site facilities for Sakhalin Energy and Petrofac, as well as brownfield tie-ins to the existing OPF.

With early engineering work already underway, the project will support Sakhalin Energy in maintaining its sustainable LNG capacity.

Reason for optimism at Petrofac?- By Alistair Strang | Thu, 7th September 2017

Why is X Factor not shown once every four years? Everyone acknowledges 'Reality' shows are basically garbage, designed to fill these awkward spots between advertising.

Thus, it was with considerable horror we discovered our own favourite show, "Gold Rush", is classed as Reality TV! We thought it documentary - but our reality is better than everyone else's anyway...

Seriously though, if X Factor followed the World Cup model, it would prove more interesting with a wider timeframe allowing some proper talent to emerge. Similarly, if Big Brother followed the example set by the Scottish village of Brigadoon, it would appear only once every 100 years, along with "I'm' a Nonentity, get me out".

What's this got to do with shares? The clue is the word "timeframe" (along with irritation at a granddaughter's fascination with X Factor).

We never deny timeframes are our Achilles heel, though we do feel they are generally impossible to predict accurately.

A recent example was Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), where we'd postulated a target of 265p. It met this target, even exceeded it, and is now rummaging around in the gutter along with politicians searching for integrity.

We "knew" RBS was going to hit 265p and anyone who'd followed our commentary probably cussed when the price actually bettered target. From our perspective, it didn't really matter as we also "knew" 265p would doubtless provoke some stutters anyway, so, despite cursing us when it hit 270p, perhaps a round of drinks are in order with the share price slithering around 244p now.

They key element was it almost had to happen, but we'd no idea how long it would take.

And this is the problem with Petrofac (PFC). It has experienced a couple of good sessions recently and we feel guilty, 'cos it had ticked virtually every box to suggest the price really wants to bottom (ideally before) at 180p. At time of writing, it's trading at 444p and needs above 740p (red line on the chart) to force us to shut up about the 180p bottom potential.

But when a 4 quid share starts experiencing 8%-plus days, we must surely pay attention?

From a near-term perspective, it seems some optimism remains possible, as above just 448p calculates as entering a cycle toward 490p next.

While perhaps not the most scintillating of notions, the key ingredient comes if 490p is bettered as our secondary comes in at 568p. Visually, given an ambition of 490p matches the highs of earlier this year, common sense demands some stutters around such a level. So, if chasing a quick trade this presents a sane target.



The 568p thing is a bit more tenuous - remembering an ultimate bottom of 180p remains, exerting its own brand of gravity. But, with closure above 490p, it becomes a difficult thing to ignore as the price could easily accelerate beyond such a point and cover the gap from 615p.

In summary, there are some very real dangers associated with this share price and a poor news report is liable to stuff it downward sharply. For now though, the visuals imply an attempt at 490p is not out of the question and hopefully, with closure above, beyond.

Societe Generale today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Petrofac Ltd (LON:PFC) and set its price target at 530p.

TMF article posted today

"Also offering upside potential with considerable risk in the oil and gas sector is Petrofac (LSE: PFC). The support services company continues to perform relatively well as a business, but the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) investigation is continuing to hold back investor sentiment. The outcome of the investigation could have a positive or negative impact on the company’s share price.

Despite this risk, Petrofac seems to be worth buying at the present time. It has a wide margin of safety which indicates that the market has priced-in potentially negative news flow. For example, it has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 6 and a dividend yield of 7.8%. Since dividends are covered more than twice by profit, they appear to be highly sustainable over the medium term.

Certainly, the company has a very uncertain future. It could be fined, for example, as a result of the SFO investigation. However, with such a low valuation, the rewards on offer appear to be hugely enticing and could make the stock of interest to less risk-averse investors."

Speculative interest in Pfc as reported by The Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/16/market-report-us-oilfield-services-giants-circle-vulnerable/

StockMarketWire.com
Petrofac is trading in line with expectations, with US$5.2 billion in new order intake so far this year.

Net debt is forecast to be around US$850 million at 31 December 2017, in line with expectations.

Ayman Asfari, Petrofac's group chief executive, said: "We have seen a recovery in new order intake in 2017, securing US$5.2 billion in new awards in the year to date in both existing and new markets. Tendering activity remains high, we continue to maintain our bidding discipline in competitive markets and we have a healthy order backlog.

"Our portfolio is in good shape, and we remain focused on project delivery and maintaining our cost competitiveness through operational excellence. This - together with measures we are taking to strengthen our balance sheet - positions us well."

Petrofac announces that it has completed the migration of the Santuario Production Enhancement Contract (PEC)1 into an interest in a Production Sharing Contract (PSC)2.

Effective from 18 December 2017, Petrofac will own a 36% equity interest in the PSC, with PEMEX Exploration & Production Mexico (PEMEX) having a 64% interest. The PSC will run for 25 years, with two optional five-year extensions. Petrofac will be Operator of the block and will carry PEMEX's share of cash calls for the first year.

Rob Jewkes, Chief Operating Officer, Integrated Energy Services, commented: "We are pleased to have successfully concluded the migration of the first of our Production Enhancement Contracts. We are committed to unlocking value in the block through a new field development plan in conjunction with our partner PEMEX."

Notes
1. The Santuario Production Enhancement Contract was signed in October 2011. It covers the onshore Santuario block in Tabasco State, central Mexico, which produced an average of c. 7 kboed in 2016.
2. As at 30 June 2017, the net book value of the Santuario PEC was US$260 million. As a result of the migration, Petrofac expects it will incur a small impairment charge.

Deutsche Bank AG selling today.

PFC has been under the cosh for quite a while as the chart shows, but is slowly clawing its way north again
arguably a reasonable sector to be in with a stronger crude price prevailing
in the past, i would have said this was the pick of the bunch, but now not sure, but nor do i know what alternative i would choose .... assuredly NOT LAM

StockMarketWire.com
Petrofac said an investigation into the company by the UK Serious Fraud Office would continue to involve interviews with directors of the company, including its chairman, as well as employees.

The company said it would continue to provide relevant documents to the SFO.

'No further comment will be made on the basis that this may prejudice an ongoing investigation,' the company said.

'We also do not anticipate providing further updates on this matter.'

'Since the events of last year the board and management have worked together to ensure safe and reliable delivery for clients and secure new orders, whilst at the same time responding as constructively as possible to the SFO investigation.'

Morgan Stanley today downgrades its investment rating on Petrofac Ltd (LON:PFC) to underweight (from equal weight) and left its price target at 475p.

FULL YEAR RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2017
· Business performance net profit (1) up 7% to US$343 million

· Reported net loss of US$29 million post impairments and exceptional items of US$372 million

· New order intake (2) of US$5.2 billion; backlog (3) of US$10.2 billion

· Net debt of US$0.6 billion reflecting strong capital management

· Full year dividend of 38.0 cents per share in line with dividend policy

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5874560

J P Morgan comment:
"Petrofac delivered a good set of underlying results, despite an 11% revenue miss in 2H 17. PFC beat implied company derived 2H 17 EBITDA by 9% (+10% vs. JPMe), reporting 2H EBITDA of $407m and giving a margin of 12.5% (consensus 10.2%, JPMe 9.9%), helped by IES at the top of guidance range and strong execution in E&C. At the segment level; FY17 E&C net margin of 7.1% (7.5% 2H 17) remains inside the target range of 7-8%. Cash collections into the year-end were also strong with the company reporting net debt of $612m, significantly ahead of pre-close guidance of ~$850m. PFC continues to prioritize deleveraging and has formally committed to exit deep-water, classifying the JSD6000 as held for sale. A further impairment on GSA due to high gas oil ratio is something of a disappointment. Finally, we note that while no update on the SFO was given, CEO Ayman Asfari has had his board restrictions, in place since May 2017, lifted. PFC is well covered for 2018 (greater than 90%), but contract awards will continue to be the focus, particularly given the expected 2H bias for contract awards this year. Overall we see today’s results as another indication of continuing solid operations and remain OW."

SocGen comment:
"We reiterate our Buy rating following the just released stronger-than-expected 2017 results. We think the sharp greater than 50% drop in the share price following the 12 May announcement of a UK Serious Fraud Office investigation is excessive, even assuming a heavy fine (i.e. $320m as implied by Rolls Royce’s SFO fine) or an even steeper penalty (we have $640m built into our valuation). The group’s strong 1H17 results underpin our positive view; SFO aside, we think order intake is now likely to be the key share price driver."

thanks harry .... i already hold and it's nice to think someone thinks PFC remains a good company

Numis, which I didn't post, has a TP of £7, just to give you more comfort!

PFC is having a 2nd strong day (+4.5%), albeit from a low starting point
it certainly has a mountain to climb to get anywhere near the previous heights of a few years ago
neverthless, assuming the company survives as now seems at least reasonably certain, it's not a bad one to hold in that sector

Once the SFO have declared their final penalty, this should surge, imo. The uncertainty is that the assumed fine is too low.
I don't hold at mo, but on my watch list. 400p seems very good support.

StockMarketWire.com
Petrofac said it had won an engineering, procurement and construction contract from Bharat Petroleum worth around $135m for work at its Kochi Refinery in India.

The 27-month contract was for the addition of a new 'motor sprit' block of refining units, which would increase the current output of the facility to meet fuel quality standards.