Hi all
pretty new to all this. I have pumped some into Deltex - looks like a strong product with good growth. Could be a steady gainer.
Does anyone else have this, and anyone have some research on it? Someone with more experience than me!
thanks in advance.
Grajul

greekman,

If you sell here, where would you put the money with better chances of growth? The reason that the Deltex share price is going down is that the whole market is a festering stinking load of pants. It's not Deltex's fault. I've been a shareholder here since early 2005 and I'm not selling. I know people who have been investors for even longer. I have watched the revenues going up year on year, with or without NICE recommendation. Even in 2008, the year when the whole stock market went to Hell in a hand-cart, when everyone was screaming in pain, Deltex's revenues increased. The ship sails on, through the storm.

This year the stock market is again going down the toilet, and Deltex sails on, with revenues up.



Why is there only one monopolies' commission?
What if there were no hypothetical questions?

I never use cliches. I avoid them like the plague.

I haven't started procrastinating yet!

I don't make predictions and I never will.


You know anarchists have their symbol which is like a capital A with another line in it? The question is...
IF THEY'RE ANARCHISTS, WHY DO THEY ALL USE THE SAME SYMBOL???


I know a man who was so old, he went on an internet dating web site and they said he should use THE CARBON DATING web site.


Zippy says: when you get your PhD will you be able to work at MACDONALDS?

Hospital accountants don't look at saving money like the Public - it appears to be a no-brainer, like locking up all burglars . . but then the Police would have nowt to do.

So if a technology can save money the Hospital buys them, Hospital purchases go up. Accountants notice this - the Purchase Ledger say so.
If the hospital treats more patients, and they have fewer complications, no money changes hands . . . Accountants don't see thsi, but the Purchases has gone up . . . so they must try to keep them down, with delays, order-countersign, reorganising the Buyers and so on.
Purchases continue to rise, so Accountants stem the flow of Purchases, at least for 6-months - Accountants happy.

-and don't kid ourselves when selling to the NHS the price is Low! So don't expect any huge profits, just yet.

Whoopee! We're saved! We're saved! We're saved!

After being out for many months, finally back in as with watching and waiting I now feel that Deltex are just about to break through from 'all the talk' which I am not blaming the company for, to action.

Whilst still feeling that Deltex should have gone down the big brother partnering route, which would I feel have put them about a couple of years ahead of where they are now, I do think the tide has finally turned.

Greek.

From a RNS 5 March 2012

Deltex Medical Group plc, the global leader in oesophageal Doppler monitoring ("ODM"), announces that the Department of Health's Innovative Technology Adoption Procurement Programme ("ITAPP") has selected intra-operative fluid monitoring as one of three technologies for wide adoption by the NHS in England.

From a RNS 2 days later.

Deltex Medical Group plc, the global leader in oesophageal Doppler monitoring ("ODM"), announces that, following a tender process, it is one of the companies selected to sell cardiac output monitoring equipment to the NHS in England through NHS Supply Chain under a framework agreement that commences this week.

From an interview with Ewan Philips on 23rd July 2012, re the Nice and NHS implementation plan (mentioned by Festering Heaps post of same date)

Our best guess is that the implementation plan will be published at some point over the summer – the delays seem to have come mostly from the NHS sorting out the rules for the financial penalties (I do like that bit) they are planning for slow and non-adopters.

Momentum is growing behind Deltex Medical’s (LON:DEMG) lead product, a budget easing surgical aid, as it moves closer to a full roll out into Britain’s National Health Service.

As summer is from 21 June till 21 Sept, it surely can't be long now.

When I bought back in on 24th July, I did so expecting the implementation plan to be late, after all this is the NHS we are talking about, but I am still expecting at least a few orders to start trickling through in the next couple of weeks.

I also noted that the sp moved very little after the 2 what looked like blockbusting RNS's, but as ever that was because we have been down the 'promises' road many times before, but I strongly believe that 'if' the implementation plan does get moving, it will be those firm orders that the investors can't ignore, so the sp will finally start to DO SOMETHING.

With all the evidence of lives saved, time in hospitals reduced, lower re-admissions plus of course money saved, it beggars belief how the NHS managers have to be cajoled into doing something which is a no brainer.

Of course these same thumb in mouth lot who run the NHS trusts, will no doubt pay themselves the usual 'bonuses'.

Deltex Medical gaining ‘real traction’ despite NHS hold-up, says CEO
2:19 pm by Jamie Nimmo Deltex's Cardio-Q device has the potential to create huge savings
Deltex Medical (LON:DEMG) continues to make headway despite delays to the NHS roll-out of its oesophageal Doppler monitor, according to its CEO Ewan Phillips.

Last December, the government pledged to launch a number of health initiatives, one of which included fully implementing Deltex’s device, which safely monitors a patient’s blood flow during surgery using a probe inserted into the oesophagus.

It has the potential to create huge savings – £1,100 per patient to be more precise – as they recover more quickly from surgery, have fewer complications and therefore spend less time in hospital.

However, its launch has seen a number of delays, which did not come as a complete surprise to the company’s chief executive.

He said such hold-ups are not uncommon, but expects the initiative – expected shortly – will help the company cement its position as the market leader.

“It will be a really good trigger – if not a silver bullet, a sort of bronze bullet if you like,” Phillips told Proactive Investors.

“It ought to put us on a sustainable, even faster growth rate than we’re already on.

“But the business is feeling likes it’s gaining real traction in lots of places and growing quite nicely without that.”

Deltex saw sales rise 7 per cent to £3.2 mln in the first half of the year, helped by a strong demand for its fluid management system CardioQ-ODM, even without the NHS initiative.

The company added that sales had been “satisfactory” since the end of June, both in the UK and overseas in its half-year results out last week.

Phillips was quick to point out that the company always performs better in the second half of the year.

He reckons France, Scandinavia and Canada have the best prospects after the UK – which is the company’s core market – and are starting to move into an accelerated phase.

The work done in Canada, for example, was going well a year ago, but the business was still tiny there.

“Because it’s medical technology, stunningly well doesn’t mean a new product launched by Apple, but it’s pretty good,” Phillips added.

“Fingers crossed, Canada could go from nowhere to very exciting in a two to three-year period.”

As for the US, some might ask why the company is focusing on the UK and not the more lucrative American health market.

Phillips explains that the market penetration across the Atlantic is “very small”, especially given the tough year that the sector endured last year.

“The US last year was horrible for all med-tech companies; the whole hospital system struggled, with falls in volume.

“So our business – which had been growing quite steadily – hit a decline in the middle of last year and we felt by last November there were signs it was recovering,” he added.

“So we finished catching up around April this year and July and August came through quite nicely and we’re on a pretty good track.

“It’s all underpinned by proper, increased, regular usage in good quality accounts where we’ve done the groundwork, so we’re feeling pretty confident on that.

“At the moment, we don’t think it’s ready yet for the roll-out but we’re trying to do the work which will get it ready for the roll-out,” said Phillips.

“It takes time but things can move pretty fast in the States so it’s a case of watching, keeping our ear to the ground and finger on the pulse.”

Robin Campbell, an analyst at Merchant Securities, reckons the growth story looks encouraging.

“You’ve got to look at the monitors, the probes, the placements and look at the razor-blade model they hope to develop there and that all translates into growth,” he said.

Campbell also highlighted the possibility of a bigger player coming in and buying out the company.

“I can see someone coming in who wants to use the technology as part of their own portfolio and take over the small footprint that Deltex has put together.”

The great thing about medical technology is that these are long-term, recurring revenue streams; the difficulty is cracking the market in the first place, Phillip says.

And he believes the company is grinding down these barriers to entry and now finds itself “within touching distance” of an accelerated growth phase.

“The key thing we want to do is keep that probe growth coming in each of the UK, Europe and the US,” Phillips added.

“On top of that, we want to start to see ideally the UK first then other countries start to accelerate off that solid growth into something, if not spectacular, then something quite a bit more quickly.”

Deltex then is certainly one to keep a finger on the pulse of.

UPDATE: Deltex Medical sees "step change" as NHS targets big increase in fluids monitoring
7:29 am by Philip Whiterow Deltex says its CardioQ-ODM oesophageal Doppler monitor is “by some way the market leading fluid management monitor in surgery in the region" ---adds audio interview---

Deltex Medical (LON:DEMG) yesterday hailed as a “step change” a new NHS target for a big increase in patients in the south of England using fluid monitoring systems.

The move by the NHS follows a series of health initiatives launched by the government at the end of last year.

One of these was to implement fully "ODM or similar fluid management monitoring technologies" across the health service.

Deltex said its CardioQ-ODM oesophageal Doppler monitor is “by some way the market leading fluid management monitor in surgery in the region".

The targets just announced are for 150 patients per 100,000 in the south of England to be treated with fluid management systems by February and March of next year.

The target rises to 200 patients per 100,000 in the NHS financial year starting 1 April 2013; to 250 patients per 100,000 in the NHS financial year starting 1 April 2014 and to 400 patients per 100,000 in the NHS financial year starting 1 April 2015.

With the population in the region estimated at 13 mln, that would amount to about 54,000 patients per year on fluid management systems by 2015/16.






Ewan Phillips, Deltex Medical's chief executive, said: "Successful implementation of the NHS South of England plan will cause a step change in the market for intra-operative fluid management monitoring in the region in the next two and a half years, with clear potential for either faster or further growth to address the remaining three-quarters of patients where NICE already recommend CardioQ-ODM usage.

In the 2011, CardioQ-ODM was used during surgery on 50 patients a year per 100,000 of population in region covered by the new targets.

The device uses a probe inserted into the oesophagus to monitor a patient’s blood flow during surgery.

It has the potential to save £1,100 per patient treated as they recover more quickly from surgery, have fewer complications and therefore spend less time in hospital.

"CardioQ-ODM has a strong market leadership position in the NHS, is the most widely applicable technology available for major surgery, is the only technology recommended by NICE and is the only technology with an evidence base that shows both improved outcomes for patients and reduced lengths of hospital stay which are the benefits being pursued by the NHS," Phillips added.

I'm beginning to wonder if Deltex do have a viable product that will sell.
And it's sales that are by far the most important aspect of any product.
Just had a look at the 10 year chart, which shows that the sp was higher in 2004 (yes, nearly 9 years ago) than it is today.
Please Deltex, open your eyes and get a door opening partner in!

If things are going to progress how we all hope, something must start happening within the next few weeks, or at the latest before year end.

From the RNS 23rd Oct 2012.
The NHS South of England targets for fluid management are expressed in terms of numbers of patients a year treated per 100,000 of population and the targets set are:

150 patients per 100,000 in February and March 2013
200 patients per 100,000 in the NHS financial year starting 1 April 2013
250 patients per 100,000 in the NHS financial year starting 1 April 2014
400 patients per 100,000 in the NHS financial year starting 1 April 2015

In the year ended 31 December 2011, CardioQ-ODM was used during surgery on circa 50 patients a year per 100,000 of population in NHS South of England.

So as the target of increase from 50 patients a year to 200 by 1st April 2012 and a further increase to 250 April 2013 and 400 to April 2014, there has to be time to both supply and train the end users.
And hopefully, other NHS Trusts will also have to start implimenting, I expect this to have a plus effect on supply contracts within a very short time.

Due to the above I am as posative as I have ever been re Deltex, BUT if there is the usual stalling/delay by the NHS Trust regulating take-up and the so called penalty process, I will not delay in once again selling my holdings.

As everyone quite rightly keeps reminding me, patience and more patience is still required, but eventually everyones patience wears thin.

So a hold for now, with great expectations.

Announced this morning that NHS Trusts are still wasting £500,000,000 per year (thats around £1,300,000 per day) on overpaying for equipment,drugs and services.
This disgraceful scandal continues even after an in depth review showed that if these NHS Trust got together and ordered en mass, they could save the above amount .

Just think, if just a fraction of this money was spent on the CardioQ, the result would be even more money saved.
Again all we hear from government health ministers are promises that, 'things will improve and that the department of health are continually looking at ways to be more efficient and to save money'.
That is why I am watching and waiting for action and not words regarding take up dead lines and fines for those NHS Trusts that fail to implement the take up of the CardioQ.

No one in authority appears to want to take a grip of health policy and get things moving.

What do they get paid for!

How much longer.

A quick summery of the Nice recommendation, drip, drip, time line.
8th June 2010.
Deltex Medical's CardioQ-ODM chosen for NICE review.

4th October 2010.
Deltex Medical's CardioQ-ODM endorsed in NICE draft guidance.

1st December 2010.
Nice to award NHS Trusts for CardioQ-ODM implementation.

30th March 2011.
Final NICE guidance recommends Deltex Medical's CardioQ-ODM

9 December 2011
The National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death ('NCEPOD') has today published its report on standards of surgical care in the NHS.

30th March 2011.
Nice recommends the CardioQ-ODM as the cardiac output monitoring technology to use in NHS hospitals.

23 October 2012
Deltex Medical Group plc, the global leader in oesophageal Doppler monitoring ("ODM"), notes that NHS South of England has published its "Innovation Health and Wealth: Innovation Plan" which includes targets for the implementation of national high impact innovations.

And still there is no publication of the penalties for none take up of the CardioQ, so procrastination still rules!

Down again
When will we hear news, as confidence in Deltex is fading the longer we go without news of NHS take-up.

Deltex Medical expects NHS roll-out details by Christmas
8:25 am Deltex said today a study in Sweden had further demonstrated the advantage of ODM over a rival technology.



Deltex Medical (LON:DEMG) expects details for the first phase of the NHS’s planned national roll-out of fluid management monitoring to be published by Christmas.

Ewan Phillips, chief executive, said it had been informed by Department of Health this will include targets and financial incentives.

One of the NHS‘s key initiatives is to install oesophageal Doppler monitoring (ODM) or similar fluid management monitoring technologies across the health service.

Once this goes ahead it should be a major boost to Deltex Medical’s CardioQ-ODM, which the company says is already market leader in the south of England where the roll-out is expected to start.

Deltex said today a study in Sweden had further demonstrated the advantage of ODM over a rival technology developed by Lidco (LON:LID).

The Karolinska Institute in Sweden found the uncalibrated Pulse Pressure Waveform Analysis (PPWA) system used in the study to be unable to replicate accurately measurements from the CardioQ-ODM during major surgery.

Phillips added; “This independent study from one of Europe's leading teaching hospitals is very timely. It addresses any misconception that the device used in this study could be considered similar to ODM in the demanding environment of major surgery.”

"ODM is the only fluid management monitoring technology proven to deliver the improved outcomes sought across the NHS and only CardioQ-ODM has been evaluated and recommended by the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) for use by clinicians for intra operative fluid management," Phillips added.

The new planning guidance for the NHS was released by the NHS Commissioning Board over 24 hours ago.
Despite spending a considerable time on the internet trying to find out the specifics, I can only find the basics.
I appreciate it is a substantial document and probably due to the cost per copy, is somehow being kept to a limited number of persons or and organisations, but I would have thought Deltex would have obtains a copy by now.
Reviewing the little I have found, its full of the usual 'political speak', IE putting the patient first, more choice, more accountability, zero tolerance on infections, lowering death rates, blah, blah, blah.
The few thousand words I have read, both on the net and in several newspapers, reads just like a political manifesto, being full of great ideas with very little facts and figures.
I can't find anything re penalties for none take up of systems such as the CardioQ, but plenty of mention re rewards for improvement.
Early to say yet, but it is looking more like a carrot and stick approach without the stick.

I will give one glaring example.

In 2007 Doctors/Consultants were offered new contracts to deliver services at more unsociable times.
It was thought the this would mean more hours worked.
Figures now show that most are actually working less hours on the new contracts, and yet the only 'stick' being waved is a request that they keep their side of the bargain or the new contract bonuses of up to £70,000 per annum will be limited down to £40,000, (not bad, less work=£70,000, but still work less and it will =£40,000).

Why the hell have we had a situation for nearly 4 years where only one side keeps to a contract, with the other paying side (the tax payer, us) still splashing out the money, and then the only move suggested is to request the agreement is kept, or the reward is lowed.
The only reason is that they do not want to upset such a politically powerful group.

As for Deltex, if we don't hear some stick approach re none take up CardioQ soon, the sp will be heading only one direction, and it won't be up!

Not happy!

http://www.commissioningboard.nhs.uk/files/2012/12/cquin-guidance.pdf

I have spent a good hour looking through the draft report trying to find where I could knock it, and apart from the fact that there is still no mention of penalty costs for none compliance, it does mention benefits and sanctions should apply', so I will wait and see if the Stick matches the Carrot.

If the draft becomes the full blown report without much alteration (as suggested) then it looks very good indeed.
Of course the proof of the pudding etc!

When it comes to the Prequalification Criteria, IE in order for providers to qualify for CQUIN payments, they will need to satisfy at least 50 per cent of the pre-qualification criteria that apply to them, Deltex looks to have satisfied well beyond the 50%, in fact as we know they have been fully approved for NHS take up.
Also the uptake programme for the use of ODM or similar is recommended to be commenced in 3 months.
With this last statement surelly the sp for Deltex must start climbing upward, if not I fail to see what else can be done to fully infiltrate the NHS.
So sp to climb steadily untill end Feb then accelerate after is my best bet.

Time will tell of course.

Not posting again till after Xmas, so happy Xmas to you all.

Trading Update.

A good indication of how things are progressing.

It does though show 2 main areas that wind me up.

1 This section shows how the NHS procrastinate.

The ODM being selected as one of six high impact innovations to be implemented fully by the NHS in England, was originally expected to impact 2012 as the NHS had committed to launch a national drive to implement ODM or similar fluid management monitoring technology by early March 2012. However, the key details of the implementation plan were only published on 21 December 2012.
So launch expected March, not yet inplimented (remember the plan has only just been published)

2 Premier and Deltex Medical have agreed to undertake a second phase of collaborative research. This will involve implementing CardioQ-ODM and other enhanced recovery steps in colorectal surgery in a small number of Premier's hospital members, supported both by Premier's clinical change management experts and Premier's data management group. The objectives are to develop both a substantial body of real-life evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of enhanced recovery with CardioQ-ODM and clear guidance to hospitals on how to implement effectively the necessary changes.

Why the hell do they need yet more trails, research, the same is happening in Canada.

The CardioQ works. It saves lives and money, wheres the argument.

I do feel that Deltex are now firmly in the driving seat, and the future in the mid to far term looks very good indeed.
As to the near term, with a cash position of £0.7 million at 31 December 2012 (down from £1.3 mil in September), it won't take much more of a delay to require a further cash injection.

I expect the market to treat this latest RNS nuetrally.

Good interview with Ewan Phillips.


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/1621/deltex-medical-ceo-discusses-traction-and-sales-growth-in-2013-1621.html

An interview that shows plenty of good news filtering through, with the only question missing was about cash flow.
I would have liked to see Ewan answer such a question, as if the cash flow continues at its last 3 month rate, it will only last for another 7 months.

To my mind, if Deltex can survive the next 7 months without having to raise funds they will be running clear.
That is why the market has concentrated on the cash in bank figure at the detriment to all the good news feeding through not just on the UK markets, but several spread around the world.

We are SO close, I just hope that we are close enough and downt fall at the last fence.

Director buying here, 3 to the tune of £225k. Encouraging eh Greekman.
2517

Hi George,

Agreed.