http://www.oilbarrel.com/news/article.html?body=1&key=oilbarrel_en:1185847528&feed=oilbarrel
31.07.2007
Rockhopper Encouraged By Latest Technical Work On Its Falkland Acreage While FOGL Excites With News Of Possible Farm-In
Things may, at last, be starting to heat up down in the Falkland Islands. After a year of not-much-happening (a couple of years back there were hopes wells would have been sunk by now), there are signs that the Falkland Island explorers are making slow but definite progress on putting together a drilling programme in these remote waters of the southern Atlantic.
Rockhopper Exploration, which focuses on the North Falkland Basin where it has interests in six licences, attracted a flurry of investor attention last week when it provided new resource estimates for the eleven best prospects in licences PL023 and PL024, suggesting total unrisked P50 recoverable reserves of 2.5 billion barrels. Shares in the AIM company, which is named after the local penguin colonies, jumped 5.5p to 52.5p after the release of the new numbers.
These licences lie close to the Falkland Islands and in relatively shallow water depths (less than 200 metres), reducing the minimum economic threshold for discoveries to 35 to 50 million barrels of recoverable oil. The company believes that the net present value of a single 100 million barrel recoverable oil field would be between US$750 million and US$1 billion.
The prospects, named after local place names, carry unrisked P50 recoverable estimates that range from 44 million barrels on the Concordia structure to 580 million barrels in the Keppel prospect. None of the eleven include the stratigraphic leads, which can be difficult to identify on seismic data and will require further data acquisition to mature to prospect status.
The most attractive of the eleven prospects is reckoned to be Ernest, with a P50 estimate of 130 million barrels. Ernest is a four-way closure that has been derisked by matching the 3D data with a CSEM anomaly: it carries a 40 per cent chance of success.
The company has also reviewed the 800 sq km of 3D data acquired over licences PL032 and PL033 to the north. These are ex-Shell licences that yielded live oil back in 1998 when the first and last wells were drilled in the North Falkland Basin (only six in total for an area half the size of Texas). The 3D shoot included a 30 km stretch of the previously untested eastern margin of the basin. This is significant because Rockhoppers geological model is based on the assumption that oil in the basin migrated to the basin margins, thereby explaining why the 1998 drilling campaign proved disappointing: all six of the 1998 wells focused on the centre of the basin where a regional seal is believed to have prevented the upward migration of oil.
Preliminary interpretation of the new 3D data is promising, revealing a number of structural closures and two large fan bodies. Oil has already been recovered on licences PL032 and PL033 so the fact that we can see structural closures and possible fans on our 3D seismic in this area is highly significant and increases our confidence in the prospectivity of the acreage, said chairman Pierre Jungels.
All of this, of course, remains purely speculative until tested by the drillbit. The companies exploring these waters need to either pool resources to secure rig time or bring in farm-in partners with the deep pockets to finance these kinds of wildcatting projects. There are signs that the tight rig market is easing somewhat but it is still going to be expensive to drill in these remote waters.
The partners are doing what they can to inch towards drilling, collecting data in order to de-risk their prospect inventories and taking the necessary logistical steps to have drill-ready projects. Millions of dollars have been spent on 2D, 3D and CSEM surveys. Desire Petroleum, which like Rockhopper is active in the North Falkland Basin, has been stockpiling drilling equipment and is in the process of conducting a high res 2D seismic site survey over its Ann, Dawn and Ruth prospects in order to identify any potential hazards that could affect the surface location of the wellbore.
And both Desire and Rockhopper are conducting Environmental Impact Assessments over their licences. A successfully completed EIA also enhances the marketability of the acreage to prospective farm-in partners. The more work done to de-risk the acreage and present a drill-ready portfolio of prospects the more value the AIM players will be able to extract during farm-in negotiations.
No deals have yet been struck but last week investors got the first real signal that a major oil company may be getting reading to join the AIM explorers. Falkland Oil & Gas Limited, which is focused on the virgin waters to the south and east of the islands, confirmed it is in advanced discussions which may or may not lead to a major resources company farming in to certain of its assets.
This is big news. FOGL opened its data room well over a year ago but despite reports of interest from all the usual suspects, a deal has been slow to materialize (not least because of the vast amounts of data to digest by risk-averse oil majors). Shares in AIM-quoted FOGL shot up by 42 pence to 123 pence on news of the talks, taking its share price up 55 per cent week-on-week. The shares have since eased back to 114 pence but are still more than 30 pence higher than in early June. Investors will be keen for those advanced discussions to firm into a concrete deal that brings the prospect of drilling a very real step closer.