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South American countries firmly support Argentina............ my donkey they do ;)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2082623/English-HMS-Protector-stirs-ill-feeling-Uruguay-allowed-dock-en-route-Falklands.html?ito=feeds-newsx

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Who gives a damn about what happens there ?.....it's what happens around the falklands......and the drilling...all the sabre rattling in South America is not even worth a mention....

Sabre rattling or not, it would be fooling to ignore anything connected with the Falklands, no matter how tenuous.
I am sure that if the UK government acted as if nothing could possibly happen, they would quite rightly face criticism.
So it must be worth a mention, as if nothing else it will have an impact on what price Rockhopper can put on their oil in the ground price.
You can guarantee that if this threat or as you say sabre rattling (and I agree thats what it is) was resolved, Rockhoppers sp would improve.
So it matters not what we think, its what others think that also counts.

Everything has some token of credibility even if its only credence is because someone believes it.

The south american falkland talk will carry on for years.....RKH's sp is rising and as we go on the oil in the ground is getting closer and closer to being pumped out and towards the british forecourts...might take four years but no more than that......by then if Rockhopper has not been taken over ; the sp will be worth eight to ten pounds in my estimation....now that's better than bonds !...

RF,

Thats were we both agree.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/294034/Falklands-boom-in-the-pipeline

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From III

Re: Going Second, Seismics - BHP I spoke to FOGL a while back (didn’t catch the person’s name but he appeared well informed and very confident). I queried why BHPB no longer retained the option to farm back in on a discovery and whether FOGL still had access to the escrow cash. He confirmed that they still had access to the escrow cash to drill Loligo.

He explained that FIG effectively vetoed the decision to allow BHPB to retain back-in option (not hard to work out why given BHPB’s poor record in FI). He stressed this was good news for FOGL’s farm in discussions with other potential partners as the BHPB back-in option had clearly presented a complication.

Now owning a 100% FOGL was in a much stronger position to negotiate a new farm-out deal. I asked why this situation had not been made clearer in the RNS dated 21/11/2011 (link below) as it was clearly excellent news – we get to keep BHPB’s cash and create a clean slate to negotiate a new farm-in.

He said neither FIG nor FOGL wanted to give the impression that they were (I quote) “rubbing BHPB’s nose in it”.http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111210700134113SI would also add that despite never being keen on the politics (with Argentina sabre-rattling) BHPB clung on to their interest in Loligo until the very last and even then did not relinquish it voluntarily.

Simple question – why?

Please note no new information was released to me during this discussion, it was simply clarification of the RNS above which I queried.

Leiv Eriksson.

2123Nm, 203 DEGREES
13d 14h 38mins (at 6.5knots)
ETA: 2012-01-21 08:28 (UTC)
Port Stanley

It looks like FOGL is being heavily short sold at the moment, as people gamble that there will be no farm out and FOGL will need to raise some extra funds to drill 2 deep wells, and will do so before BOR finish their first drill.

That means if a farm out is announced expect a very strong rally upwards and the shorts close their positions rapidly.

Either the shorts are right and will get their stock back in a placing, or there will be a helluva shorts closing rally before too long.

perhaps you're grasping at straws ..... a damn-fool buy imo

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i am not a holder of fogl in any respect and have no wish to be
i only hold rkh in this region, and am currently showing a very nice profit

logic is as follows, and as posted a couple of weeks back ....

if fogl fluke a find - chances are usually something like 5:1, but in unknown territory, more realistic to say 8 or 10 or even 12:1 - then rkh will also benefit
there will also be plenty of opportunity to jump on board after the event.

if fogl get a duster or a non-commercial find - the most likely outcome - then fogl will be badly hit, but rkh will only a dip a bit

i don't play roulette, even when the odds are a bit better than at that that mug's game

1 in 10 chance of hitting oil with only enough money for 1 drill at moment.

I did suggest it was being shorted ahead of a placing and there we go.

Excellent now that we can drill deep Loligo, deep Scotia and still have plenty of funds at the end of that.

FOGL now go into this with 100% of Loligo and 100% of Scotia - and that means massive upside if either of those two strike oil :) !!

No farm out needed now.

Away we go............ bring on the rig.

I thought it pretty certain they wanted to drill Scotia given the excellent sands found in the Toroa near shore well, it meant that a big risk for deepwater wells targeted the same sands was greatly reduced, hence the need to drill Scotia second after Loligo.

Todays placing is no surprise and it means they now drill Loligo and Scotia with 100% ownership and no farm in.

Given the dilution from todays placing the risked and unrisked with the new shares in issue figure is as follows :

Loligo risked per share is now £13.13
Loligo unrisked per share is now £89


FOGL main prospects risked is now £44.71 per share
FOGL main prospects unrisked is now £303 per share.


First up, Loligo now represents £89 a share unrisked upside based on a low in the ground valuation of the potential 4.7 billion recoverable barrels of oil on P50 figures.

Rig is arriving very soon and drilling starts for BOR within weeks.

This is going to fly when Loligo spudding nears............

RKH 38p to 500p.

FOGL could go 50p to 2000p - such are the massive massive size of the FOGL drills compared to tiddler RKH.

2000p here we go again!!

3 guesses as to which line represents FOGL

LOL

RKH is now POST drill - and will now go down and down over the coming months.

FOGL is now PRE drill - and will go up and up in the coming months.

I will post your chart back to you in June cynic - and laugh and laugh :)

Worth re-reading this now, and the implications of Scotia which I predicted would be drill number 2.

http://boards.fool.co.uk/nfsc-2012-write-up-fogl-falkland-oil-and-gas-12443771.aspx?sort=whole

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