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http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381032
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381151
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/final-results/201310250700053729R/

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VOG is presently drilling Well 104 in its West Medvezhye field,and expected to reach depth in 4 weeks from spud date of 30th June, that makes 27th July(this week).
Results of testing will be sometime mid/late August, with a positive outcome
it could be HUGH.
With estimates of 134BILLION cubic metres of GAS and 201 Million barrels of Gas
Condensate,it will be a Company Maker. The field is in the area of the largest gas field in the WORLD.
Other assets include Kemerkol in Kazakhstan, with C1 reserves of 8.7MBO
and C2 reserves of7.8MBO. Another acquistion is Tamdykol with potental
reserves of 34MBO, it also has interest in 2 blocks in the North Sea.
You can check it out on www.uk-wire.com, and its own site of www.victoriaoilandgas.com.
It has excellent management team led by Kevin Foo, who hopes to turn it into
a Mid Cap Company(�500m+) in the not to distant future.
As i stated earlier in the post, Drilling is almost complete so it won't be long to Lift Off?
Well, Well worth checking out.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111040700164867R

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111290700139263S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112200700132888U
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201207090700051587H
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/rsm-default/201401130700074445X/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/interim-results/201402280701321590B/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/CompData.aspx?code=VOG&tab=announcements

still a long term hold.

news is not that bad, they have one well confirmed so i guess i will hold these Long term as well

may as well average down prices

News is pretty bad, peeyam. West Med has had its estimates dropped by 9% and the three wells are non-commercial.

Still not bad enough to warrant the huge SP drop though.

- 9% drop in estimates
- One billion barrels of oil equivalent confirmed (i would have thought this was atleast something to be happy about)

SP drop of 30% is a bit too much so i guess it would recover to a more decent level in the next few days, unless there are huge sellers out there, for long term it looks like one to hold. what do you think is the prospect from here?

well that t10 proved a disaster- i guess i will now be buying at a large loss!.

Morning all. A bit of a disappointment with the non-commerciality of Danniella.

I agree with Peeyam - longer-term the prospects are very good. We should not forget that this is one of the world's premier gas regions and that apparently the horizons due to be tested next are more prospective than the ones just tested (I hope this proves to be the case!).

The way to get the best out of these E&P's is to buy on the dips as that's where you get the baggers. A strong portfolio of prospects is the key. Look at what happened to NOP last summer on disappointment over two particular wells, followed by the spectacular rebound for a 5-bagger when they got into something more commercially viable. VOG ought to be capable of recovering, although how low it will go in between is anybody's guess.

Having sold half my holding at 215p I'll now be looking for a chance to buy some back at a price that seems cheap. Will most probably hang on to my core holding unless I really fancy my chances at predicting the peaks and troughs.

Good luck everybody.
ST

this is the norm for oil stocks non commercial wells are all part of the risk. still 1 billion barrels estimated and plenty encouragement for the future.

couldn't resist again at 100p!.buying for the long term!.

not been in touch with you for a while. The news this morning very disappointing. I have still got my 40,000 holding. Plus at close I bought anoter 18,000 at 1.01. Lets hope tommoro they will come back some, I noticed that there are more people buying than selling. I believe now that victoria are going to be a long term buy. for me, because the majority or mine were purchased at 2.50 - 2.40 so I am doing my brains in at the moment. Good look to you all. look forward to reading your views in the future.

This is a message to lizard, I have read your messages today, and thought I must tell you how I have ended up with so many of these shares. Noted that you bought some on a t10, and that you have bought some more at 1.00. End of april this year i bought 10,000 victoria at 2.50 a few days later I bought 10,000 more at 2.40. I bought both of these on t10 deals. unfortunatly when the settlement date came along they had dropped considerably. the diffence between selling the shares and buying them back was at this time 5 pence, so other than take the losses, I decided to pay for them. Another week went by victoria dropped even more to 1.80 approx. I thought these are a good buy I will buy some more on a t10, seven more days went buy the fell furthur, the difference betweek buying selling was still 4-5pence. I paid for the shares again. 7 more days went by. I had thirty thousand victoria now. To sell these and buy them back would cost say 400 plus dealing costs. I paid for them again. Bought another ten thousand, and then they dropped down to 1.10 per share . Other than take the book loss I again paid for the shares. I have now bought more at todays price on a t10. It is quite easy to dig a hole. It would not be bad ithe the difference between buying and selling was not so great. Then you would babel to sell them and buy them back on the t10 deal. This is my story . I needed to tell some one. Good luck.

If you read the Renaissance Capital Research Alert issued earlier today it says it all - perhaps VOG Management should have released this instead :-)

ALERT ==> Scale of resources largely unchanged. VOG also said today that an
updated DeGolyer & MacNaughton report confirmed 1bn boe of gross resources
for West Medvezhye. D&M had previously estimated that the other 26 identified
structures in the acreage could harbour prospective resources of 5.3 tcf (883mn
boe) of gas and 164mn bbls of liquids. The risked best estimate of these
resources is 1.0 tcf (168mn boe) and 31.5mn bbls.
Target price update. Excluding Danniella from the resource base barely
alters VOGs valuation. Based on Novateks 2010 EV/production rating, a
150 bcm prospect from which 4 bcm of gas production might be achieved is worth
an estimated and marked-to-market GBPp374/share today. This allows for the
funding gap to actually get there. Our mini-DCF still indicates that such an outturn
is worth GBPp407/share. The midpoint, GBPp390, is our updated target price, up
from GBPp316 previously, mainly on account of Novateks recent performance.
Buy the weakness. While todays share price plunge is a stark reminder of
the risks associated with junior exploration plays, VOG seems to be pricing-in
failure at the current price of GBPp105. This represents around $6.5/bbl for
VOGs 2P oil reserves in Kazakhstan. Hence, the very large gas upside now
comes for free. VOGs EV/resources of $0.20/boe is less than one-fifteenth of
Novateks current EV/reserves multiple, so we see a good risk/reward here.

The fall does look overdone to me, good buys at the end of the day.
Considering getting into these from here

candolim- t10 trades on vog have done me also three times . i never buy a share without thinking of buying for the long term even if in the money. my annoyance is i could have bought them cheaper a day later (bad rns/good rns situation regrettably it was the former). vog will now be a med long term play for me.

long at 1.85 1.49 and today 100p. if it goes to 80p then again it may get tempting again i would expect new investors would be interested at these levels i still am confident for vog.

yet again though my timing is rubbish. who would have thought these would have gone from 250p to 100p in a few months.

Playing good enough golf yesterday to win a pretty trophy was scant recompense for VOG's horrid day ..... However, I intend to stick with my holding .... Almost wish I had the funds to buy more these levels ...... Jameel's post (848) ties in exactly with what I was told .... As with a similar "incident" with Burren (a really good oil company for those interested), the climb back could be quite slow, but it ought to happen ..... which of course is no guaratee that it will!

I'm not sure that VOG and BUR should be compared cynic. BUR is a producer and has real earnings, VOG is purely exploration and is based on hope/future production. You posted a while back during the wobble about city rumours re: dry well. Looks like they were pretty accurate.

I'd like to see a bit of director buying or some other support before piling back in myself. The story has changed, and the company lacks credibility at the moment.

My condolences to all those who have lost money on this one. Esp candolim. First rule of investment is use a stop loss, 2nd rule is don't average down. It cost me a few grand to learn those two as well!

Good luck all.

P.S. that deramper bloke with the tales about Kevin Foo, is he still around? I'd like to know what other companies Foo has been involved in. He wasn't the wacky backy bloke was he? (Bakyrchic Gold and its rock eating bugs: anyone remember?)

Drop was annoying but you cant win 'em all. I have bought more this am as on balance of probabilities (in my view) drop is over done. NO I am not trying to claw back losses as I never made any actual loss - just failed to take a profit!, I regard it as a new investment, albeit one to watch carefully.

Morning all. Thanks Jameel for that post - it's nice to get some useful figures.

bonfield ...... i too am sorry that the info re dry wells was denied (apparently by the company) ..... they weren't actually dry etc etc, but still somewhat economic with the truth .... suppose they had little option .....

with regard to attempted (de)reramping, that is dead easy and can be done with any share especially iof the perpetrator does not back his opinion with hard cash! ..... of course, these peeps will crow when they get a right call, but are otherwise very quiet.

I happen to hold BUR as well as VOG so follow the pair of them quite closely ..... To say that VOG is based on hope is, i think, more than a little unfair as there seem to be very (hugely!) significant reserves under their "control", unlike say ELP or even CHP ...... confess i do not know how/when VOG are expected to actually start extracting the stuff, but no doubt some "friends" here could enlighten

Cynic,

That reminds me that I wanted to mention to you the difference between resources and reserves (since you raised an issue related thereto a few weeks back).

As I understand it, resources are the expected volumes of hydrocarbons in a prospect. Resources are an estimate based on seismic and other data.

Resources are converted into reserves when the company has confirmed that hydrocarbons are in place and that they are accessible in such a fashion as to be commercially viable. This means that drilling is required to prove that the stuff is there in the first place. It is also dependent upon the oil price, as obviously a lot more oil is commercially viable if oil goes to $100 than if it slumps back to $25. For this reason, companies will occasionally release a reserves upgrade based on a sustained change in the oil price, as NOP did a couple of weeks ago.

Neither resources nor reserves appear to me to indicate the true amount of hydrocarbons present in the ground, which obviously nobody can ever really know.

VOG has strong resources - i.e. a lot of prospective territory which, according to seismic could, possibly, hopefully, maybe, yield 1 bln bboe.

However, its reserves at West Med are presently nothing much, because reserves depend upon the company successfully locating commercial hydrocarbons, which they obviously did not do at Danniella. VOG has a lot more drilling to do! If the whole area turns out to be uncommercial (perish the thought!), then reserves will be nil, even though a proven resource is in plce which may one day turn out to be commercially viable if prices continue to increase.

Don't be misled by some articles which use the vocabulary interchangeably.

I tried to confirm the difference using the very useful OSHA Glossary of Petroleum Industry Terms

GO THERE

but they only had the definition of reserves.

reserves n pl: the unproduced but recoverable oil or gas in a formation that has been proved by production.


Hope this helps. Any experts out there are welcome to correct me if I've got this wrong.
ST

many thanks for your enlightenment ST