Proselenes
- 22 Oct 2009 11:14
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required field
- 10 Dec 2010 19:34
- 853 of 3002
Thanks...missed that....
cynic
- 10 Dec 2010 20:34
- 854 of 3002
on that basis, possibly a good time to jump in - i.e. very short-term holders forced out, pushing down sp
opinion of others, far more knowledgeable then me, would be appreciated
ptholden
- 10 Dec 2010 22:45
- 855 of 3002
Ricardo
The situation is a relative simple one:
XEL have a 100% interest in the Bentley oil field which is estimated to hold approx 200mmboe and perhaps considerably more. This has the potential to transform XEL into the 3rd largest independent E&P company (in terms of reserves) active in the UK North Sea today (behind Dana & Premier Oil) and they could overtake both.
The only drawback I can see it that the discovery is heavy oil and its flow properties are not good, however, XEL have done their homework and liaised very closely with the operators of the Bressay field next door. They have drilled a horizontal well (complete) to maximise Chance of Success (which depending on who you listen to is 70%-80%).
The final phase of this stage is the flow test, which was supposed to have started last week but has been delayed by weather. You may have read posts mentioning the 'Betty' which is actually the tanker contracted to take off the oil from the test. Until the weather abates the Betty cannot hook up to the rig. There may be a weather window over the weekend.
The test is expected to take 3-5 days.
The test will be considered successfull if it knocks out 1200 bopd, which is the min figure to look out for when the RNS appears, slightly less may be acceptable. For info Bressay, produces at 3000bopd (approx). On completion of the test, expect to see the contingent resouce base converted into reserves.
Essentially you have to decide whether the oil will flow commercially, even if it doesn't on this occasion the oil will still be there and I expect XEL to re-evaluate. I imagine the SP will be trashed on bad news (-50%?) and surge (+50%) on good. +50% is very, very conservative - Arbuthnot, the house broker has something like an 800p target (but then, they are the HB).
The fall from 330p is probably predicated upon disappointment the FT has not been completed which in turn has led to short term traders closing and perhaps those not so confident (losing profits?) selling.
cynic
- 11 Dec 2010 09:53
- 856 of 3002
i would hope that at the present level, there is not much downside, and indeed, i let greed get the better of me yesterday and i bought a few more at 287 .... do you also hold?
ptholden
- 11 Dec 2010 10:56
- 857 of 3002
Yep, have an average of 268p (was 255p) but added some more yesterday during the first sell off and then the second dip towards the close. Prepared for bad news or good, good will far outweigh the impact of bad IMO.
Balerboy
- 11 Dec 2010 12:08
- 858 of 3002
also bought more yesterday and am now very over wieght for me, greed getting the better of me. ave 186.,.
required field
- 12 Dec 2010 11:23
- 859 of 3002
In with quite a few...but a lot ..lot less than before....as I had a very low entry level for most of mine.....free ride on remaining.....if this was at 200p...I would have more....but anything above 300p has forced me into profit taking due to risk.....so now waiting for flow result.....but if it does not come right ; for me it will now not be a disaster.....;.....trading in the markets is all about risk assessment and how much one is prepared to lose in a bad downturn....it's also more difficult for me as I cannot watch all the time and get caught out....
Proselenes
- 13 Dec 2010 08:04
- 860 of 3002
Strong week ahead...... !
required field
- 13 Dec 2010 11:25
- 861 of 3002
I would like to think that the testing has started as the weather seems a bit better.....and who knows...we could be looking at a four to five pound stock here....dream on rf......
cynic
- 13 Dec 2010 12:12
- 862 of 3002
or even one worth 4/5p! ..... sure as hell hope not!
hlyeo98
- 13 Dec 2010 12:15
- 863 of 3002
Went to Scotland last weekend to see my sister and the roads are just gridlocked and dangerous. And the forecast says snow will be back before christmas.
cynic
- 13 Dec 2010 12:17
- 864 of 3002
fascinating, but what's the relevance? ..... i could equally tell you that Aberdeen airport has remained open throughout this cold spell
========
meanwhile XEL's performance over the last few trading days is becoming more than a little unsettling
Balerboy
- 13 Dec 2010 13:33
- 865 of 3002
top up or jump ship.....rf???
required field
- 13 Dec 2010 13:42
- 866 of 3002
Topped up but at the wrong price by the look of it...
cynic
- 13 Dec 2010 13:44
- 867 of 3002
it's so easy to get sucked into trying to catch the knife ..... no RNS but also impossible to tell why sp is tumbling ..... head says that bad news is in the offing; heart says it is just MMs playing silly buggers and/or PIs being closed out
Balerboy
- 13 Dec 2010 13:57
- 868 of 3002
those on the other board seem to think the Betty is heading back to Shetland. Other than pro that is who said the complete opposite.....dyor don't know what to think, i topped up yesterday at 290 but like rf could have done better today...hind sight!!
required field
- 13 Dec 2010 14:00
- 869 of 3002
Just topped up again at 258...????....ten days ago that would have seemed crazy when i sold some at 327 !!!!.....hope this is not going to slump....I will take a knock along with others....up to now...this has always delivered.....
required field
- 13 Dec 2010 14:07
- 870 of 3002
Betty won't mind cold ...sleet or snow..rain, fog or anything like that...what they will mind is rough seas and wind....
cynic
- 13 Dec 2010 14:24
- 871 of 3002
if Betty has merely retired to port to await better conditions, then that is just tiresome but of course does not alter one iota what the flowtest will ultimately show
required field
- 13 Dec 2010 14:29
- 872 of 3002
At present levels...starting to look like a bargain (or ikea bargain) depends if you like furniture or not.......if there is a possibility of a 400p plus surge on good news....and that 400p plus is a big possibility if the flow goes well....