http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

This was a reply to a poster on a competitors thread,

Agree re the de-rampers although of course there will be a fair number of rampers also.
You can't beat just looking at the facts. RKH have discovered oil. That oil as yet looks to be on the higher side of what was first thought, in both quantity and quality, but we still need the final test results to be 100% sure, so on balance, to me this is a buy. I very rarely give a buy/sell or hold view as I believe punters/investors will make up their own minds, but I do believe that the 6 being muted is possible. Obviously if final results are disappointing so would a price of 1 or lower.

As to profit takers bringing down the price. Yes they could do so easily, depending on timing and/or simply taking a profit on the run sometimes being a good call. I did that last week making a decent profit within the hour, buying back in the same day. I must admit I rarely day trade, probably about 3 to 4 times a year. This time I was lucky with my timing, but I feel it is now far too risky with RKH,s present position.
Also of cause many other situations in your list are possible, but I do appreciate your post is stating 'HOW' these situations will be used to scare punters into selling.
So all we can do is look at the sp, weighing up the positives against the negatives.
If we believe the positives at the currant sp outweigh the negatives then it's either a buy or hold. If we believe the opposite then sell.
We should never look only at what de-rampers/rampers say, as their words may be right, but we should look at in what context and 'HOW' they say it.

Regards Pond.

we know what the downside position is, it is trying to quantify the sp upside potential that is difficult.

Exactly...do you buy in at these levels and see the sp drop to 150 or 160p....that would be terrible....and is Mr EK shorting these ?....would not be surprised, plus next well is FOGL's.....will be 3 months before Rockhopper's next....be wary of a serious pullback...

rf see our thread 827 EK is long, we know you are desperate to get back in just bite the bullet and buy, you may well regret not doing so if further good news comes out.

The trouble is you said exactly the same at 90p.

Now its 190p.

Give up, admit that GKP is as risky as hell and RKH is far better..... ;) LOL


required field - 10 May 2010 11:03 - 857 of 857
Exactly...do you buy in at these levels and see the sp drop to 150 or 160p....that would be terrible....and is Mr EK shorting these ?....would not be surprised, plus next well is FOGL's.....will be 3 months before Rockhopper's next....be wary of a serious pullback...

From E.K.:
"Finally, although I sold Rockhopper (RKH) short at 97p and 98p this morning (7th May) I closed at 85p and went long. More sixpence-swivelling, I suppose. But there now seems a sporting chance that the shares are worth many times their current price."

Holdings RNS out, Institution buying, gone through the 6% holding barrier.

GKP is risky to a certain extent... but 2 to 4 billion barrels isn't chickenfeed......yes I would like to buy back at lower levels if possible....but I'm not deramping, it's you lot promoting the possible fact that they have struck the black eldorado here....and that before any appraisal wells are sunk, any flow testing is run, that the stock should be worth : 300p or even 800p....nuts...it might go up there but it seems crazy to me ....

Perhaps Oil Expo isn't your required field.

Marky
I'll raise a glass with you tonight...the boat's come in!

Stanley residents in The Globe are cock-a-hoop so I'm told!

almost 2!

I would like to buy back at 130p or so...hoping for a pullback but not in DES....just cannot bring myself to paying close to 200p for this and I might be regretting that later on....my fault for selling out too early but a top has to be found soon...a few months wait to next RKH spud...

rf missed the boat big time!

half of it as I was in very low....

Richard Rose, the Oriel Analyst said this a few days back :

"Based on a notional US$8.5/boe valuation (may prove to be conservative in a US$90/bbl environment), a 170mmb discovery would be worth c600p/sh

So, he based that on the pre-drill best guess mean of 170M barrels recoverable.

Now the rumour is from the RKH boys that its going to be near or over the top side figure, around 450M barrels recoverable.

Plug 450M barrels into the formula and now its not 600p a share, but now 1450p a share that this find is worth using 8.5$ as a conservative figure based on the location of the find.

So rather than being 600p per share, the potential is 1450p per share. Perhaps you can see why the price is strong at the moment, plenty of willing buyers.

level 2 looks like we are going to break into 2 any minute...happy days!!!!!

Nearly double buy orders to sells

How far do you think it will go..? amazing...never thought it would go so far in such short time...

Broker Update from Evolution

The update from Rockhopper on its Sealion well is encouraging as the porosity and more importantly the permeability of the reservoir is good to very good (Kh of 200-500mD). Fluid and pressure samples have been taken. Oil samples have been recovered which suggest the oil is mobile. With up to 53 m of net pay in multiple zones, with no observed oil water contact, most observers reckon the 2P resource of the discovery could be at least 200m bbls (versus the 170m pre-drill est). Remember Rockhopper owns 100% of this licence. As long as the flow rate is in line with the rock properties according to the electric logs and samples recovered then the field is likely to be commercial. In terms of timing, the well is to be suspended for testing at some future date so we are unlikely to be a flow rate until at least after the BHP/FOGL well. However, derisked, the field could be worth several times the current share price, even after the rises on Thursday/Friday.

come on - just 1p more!

EK says it could add another 100p.