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House prices 'back to 2008 level'
House prices are now the same as they were a year ago, says the Nationwide
UK house prices have now recovered to the same level as a year ago, according to the latest Nationwide figures.
The average price of a home last month rose by 0.9% to 161,816, almost identical to September 2008.
The building society said house prices had now risen for the fifth month in a row.
But it warned that price increases were unlikely to continue at their present rate, especially if more properties come on to the market.
"The most intense phase of the recession and financial crisis has probably passed," said Martin Gahbauer, the Nationwide's chief economist.
"However, given that the housing market still faces considerable headwinds in the form of high unemployment, restrictive credit conditions and an impending withdrawal of the stamp duty holiday, it would be surprising to see house prices continuing to increase at the very strong rate seen in recent months," he added.
Remaining cautious
The Nationwide said price rises had been particularly vigorous in the past few months.
In the three months to September they rose by 3.8% compared to the average level in the previous three months - the biggest rise on this measure since August 2004.
Mr Gahbauer said another reason to remain cautious about the outlook for house prices was that turnover in the market was still well below normal levels.
The Nationwide calculates that housing turnover - the percentage of private sector housing stock changing hands on an annualised basis - now stands at almost 4%.
This is still significantly lower than the rate of between 7% and 8% recorded before the downturn in the housing market.
David Smith, of property consultancy Carter Jonas, said anyone hoping to sell now had a "window of opportunity" that might soon shut.
"We have to expect more turbulence ahead, specifically as a result of rising unemployment and interest rates," he said.
"This toxic combination will bring more property on to the market as people struggle to meet their repayments, which will apply downward pressure on prices and potentially reverse the recent trend, at least for a time," he added.
'Accidental landlords'
Another factor that might depress house prices again would be if "accidental landlords" now decided to sell their homes instead of letting them to tenants, the Nationwide said.
"The downturn in housing turnover over the last two years has prompted many home movers to let their old properties out rather than sell," said Mr Gahbauer.
"The surge in so-called "accidental landlords" has limited the supply of property in the ales market and increased the stock of homes available to let.
"Over recent months the increase in "accidental landlords" seems to have tapered off, which may indicate that some of this elevated rental supply is returning to the sales market, with possible negative implications for house prices," he said.