Is This A Buy Yet??????????? @115p

131 now, 85p when last posted on here, over 50% gain. Possible FTSE 250 entry this time, seems to have slipped under the radar on here.

PARAGON GROUP (183p)

Nearly four years ago, Paragon was on the brink of collapse. A buy-to-let mortgage provider, the company was described in one analyst's note in 2007 as "Para-gone".

Paragon did not go. Against hefty odds, the business survived and last year, after putting itself into hibernation for more than two years, it began lending again.

Such has been the company's renaissance it has even begun to pick prime mortgage portfolios off larger rivals such as Royal Bank of Scotland that only survived the maelstrom of 2008 with billions of pounds of taxpayers' money.

This instinct for survival and a good opportunity are important skills for any financial company's management in the choppy markets we are likely to see in 2012.

Paragon's top team has demonstrated these qualities in unusual quantity, making its shares a good pick for the coming 12 months.

Buy-to-let mortgages carry considerable risk but Paragon's ability to pick the choicest borrowers means it is unlikely to be the first to come unstuck if property takes a knock.

Not only this, the company has learnt from the last crisis and has locked in longer-term funding, making it more resilient to the ups and downs.

Probably not one for the faint-hearted, but it could be a top performer.

hit a new high this week, reaching 197p yesterday to just pip its previous peak of 195.7p set in March. The buy-to-let mortgage lender has had a good year, rising from a low of around 140p last October, and has since experienced a somewhat bumpy ride to gain 38% to today.

Forecasts are good too, with the shares on a forward P/E of only 8.6 for the year to September, dropping to 8.1 for next year. The expected dividend is modest, at around 2.5%.

.

Final Results

Highlights

Financial Performance

· Profit before tax of £95.5 million (2011: £80.8 million)
· Underlying profit increased by 16.2% to £94.2 million (2011: £81.1 million)
· Strong cash position and cash flow
· Step change in dividend policy with final dividend at 4.50p per share (2011: 2.65p per share). New policy of targeting 3.0 - 3.5 times cover over the medium term
· Shareholders' funds £803.5 million (2011: £742.0 million)
· Net asset value 269p per share (2011: 250p per share)

Strategic development

· Three consumer loan portfolio investments, total £115.4 million, completed during the year
· Buy-to-let origination franchise well established, £184.3 million advanced (2011: £127.0 million)
· Two securitisations of buy-to-let loans completed
· Warehouse funding capacity increased by 125%

Berenberg Bank raises target price to 280p from 230p; rating buy ...... whoever they are!

Share price reaction to finals abit of an upset. Not sure why though, I'll have to take a good look at the results.

Peel Hunt Buy 241.90 250.00 288.00 - Retains

Canaccord Genuity Buy 241.90 250.00 313.00 313.00 Retains

No surprise Skinny, most brokers have these at 12 times earnings or slightly lower as I do. Expected a rally today, looks like I'll have to wait for my money though. With a margin at 40% of stake I'd rather not be holding for any length of time.

Arguably its had a good run - it looks compelling, but will look even more so a bit lower!

Glad I bought March 13 future now.

PAG PARAGON

Moving up nicely.

Brokers have some bullish SP targets.....

Stock on a lowely P/E of 8.8 to 2014.

Far too cheap.

Date Company Name Broker Rec. Price Old target price New target price Notes

22 Nov Paragon Group of... Shore Capital Buy 245.15 - - Reiterates
21 Nov Paragon Group of... RBC Capital Markets Sector Performer 245.15 240.00 260.00 Downgrades
21 Nov Paragon Group of... Numis Sell 245.15 - 168.00 Reiterates
21 Nov Paragon Group of... Jefferies International Buy 245.15 260.00 290.00 Reiterates
21 Nov Paragon Group of... UBS Buy 245.15 262.00 265.00 Retains
20 Nov Paragon Group of... Peel Hunt Buy 245.15 288.00 - Retains
20 Nov Paragon Group of... Canaccord Genuity Buy 245.15 313.00 313.00 Retains
16 Nov Paragon Group of... Berenberg Buy 245.15 230.00 280.00 Retains
14

GF my sentiments also, on a PE of 12 the sp would be some 287p but currently the market doesn't agree. Paragon have got everything in place to restart buy-to-let but its slow going at the moment. I think low interest rates that can only go one way is putting people off even if sky-high rental prices and good margins are achievable at the moment.

Yep ive got a few detailed broker notes, might help.

Financial
Paragon (PARA.L) Anton Kryachok............ +44-20-7568 3580
Analyst
anton-a.kryachok@ubs.com
Alastair Ryan...................+44-20-7568 3238
Analyst
alastair.ryan@ubs.com
Price (19 Nov 2012)..............241p/US$3.83
12-month rating...............Buy (Unchanged)
12m price target.....Prior:
262p/US$4.17 => 265p/US$4.21
Market cap...................£0.73bn/US$1.15bn
Full-Year EPS
2012E............................... 23.34p => 24.24p
2013E............................... 26.79p => 27.24p
L.aying solid foundations for 2013 Strong delivery on key aspects of the business
2012 was another year of strong performance from Paragon: the successful completion of the
new PM17 securitisation, an enhancement of warehouse facilities and robust earnings delivery
from IDEM. These developments leave the group well positioned for a strong performance in
2013, in our view, which to a large degree will be measured by the pace, profitability and credit
q.uality of new BTL lending (UBSe £350m) and an improvement in stated RoEs (UBSe 9.7%). FY2012 PBT 3% ahead of consensus, dividends up +50% y/y
FY2012 PBT came in at £95.5m, +3% ahead of consensus and +4% ahead of UBSe, supported
by stronger than expected Net Interest Income of £157.8m (+3% ahead of UBSe) and better
provisions (£24.1m, -11% UBSe), as BTL loans in arrears for 3+ months declined to 48bps from
54bps in Q3 12. The Board proposed a final dividend of 4.5p per share, taking a total dividend
f.or the year to 6.0p (up +50% y/y) ahead of UBS expectations of 4.5p. Earnings upgrades: +2% to 2013E EPS
On the back of FY2012 results, we increase our 2013E earnings by +2% and revise up our
2013 DPS forecast by +28% to 6.6p to reflect the new dividend policy. We trim down our
f.orecast for new BTL lending in 2013 to £350m (from £400m). Valuation remains undemanding
We increase our DCF-derived price target to 265p (from 262p). The stock is trading on 0.8x
2013E BVPS. We reiterate our Buy recommendation, but remove Paragon from our Mid-Cap
Key Call list, due to a lack of near term catalysts.
-
European Morning Meeting Highlights 21 November 2012
UBS

250ish very long term resistance area.

PAG PARAGON

J P Morgan

Europe Equity Research
20 November 2012

Paragon Group Overweight
PARA.L, PAG LN

Full year profits modestly ahead of estimate, and a
substantially better dividend ▲
Price: 250p
Price Target: 290p
Previous: 225p
General Financials

Adj. EPS FY (p) 19.6 23.4 23.7 24.4 26.1
Bloomberg EPS FY (p) 19.30 23.00 - 24.70 26.10
DPS (Net) FY (p) 4.0 6.0 5.0 7.0 8.0
NAV/Sh FY (p) 247.6 266.6 284.4 284.6 303.2
Revenue FY (£ mn) 151 170 173 186 195
Pretax Profit Adjusted FY
(£ mn)
81 94 96 99 106
Adj P/E FY 12.7 10.7 10.5 10.2 9.6
Net Yield FY 1.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2.8% 3.2%
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Cazenove estimates.

Company Data
Price (p) 250
Date Of Price 19 Nov 12
Price Target (p) 290
Price Target End Date 31 Dec 13
52-week Range (p) 257 - 151
Mkt Cap (£ bn) 0.7
Shares O/S (mn) 299
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
p
Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12

Price Performance

Paragon Group (“Paragon”) has this morning released its full year results
for the year to September 2012. The company has reported profits a touch
ahead of our estimate at £94.2m (our estimate £92.8m) and 16% higher
than a year ago. It has also announced a material change to its dividend
policy with the intention of targeting 3.0-3.5x cover over the medium
term. The immediate impact of this is a final dividend of 4.5p taking the
total dividend for this year to 6.0p, compared with our estimate of 4.4p. In
our view, the combination of having secured new funding this year and the
new dividend policy are confirmation of Paragon's recovery from the
travails of the credit crunch, and are likely to be well received by
shareholders. We have both rolled our price target forward to December
2013 and increased it to 290p reflecting the company’s return to lending.
We retain our Overweight recommendation.

 Underlying PBT £94.2m v our estimate £92.8m (2011 £81.1m). Q4
profit was £25.3m, 14% ahead of a year ago.

 The company reports that the pipeline of business at the start of the
year is strong supported by the recent securitisation and warehouse
facility. The company reports that to date there have been no arrears on
mortgage lending advanced since October 2010.

 We are making no change to our profit estimates at this stage
although the better than expected performance in 2012 increases
confidence. A lower tax rate implies modest EPS upgrades while we
have increased materially our dividend estimates to reflect the new
dividend policy. We also introduce our FY14 estimates.

 Our price target is rolled forward to December 2013 and increased
to 290p. In our view book value is a reasonable next base for the share
price.
 Analysts meeting 9.30am. 1 Finsbury Avenue, EC2M 2PP.

Closed today just off the Money for my Future position, fingers crossed for next week.

Im £1.90 pence up..he he. March contract.

Think its looking strong though shortie.

March contract also GF

27 Nov Paragon Group of... PAG Espirito Santo Execution Noble Buy 241.00 245.50 259.00 338.00 Retains

SP target 338p