Star Energy is currently testing the Avington well in Southern England.
This will take about 4 weeks an RNS news feed said, it started on 25/06/06.

I hope it proves positive so we get a good share price rise!
We are 5% holders but i'm not sure how much in pence potential this is worth for the company.

Another good reason to hold on to this share.

Why is it amazing? MMs are obliged to deal in the NMS, anything above and you will likely pay a premium, nothing unusual in that at all.

For what it's worth my observations of dead crosses and golden crosses seem to indicate the SP usually gravitates back to the MAs before continuing the trend.

ptholden, please show me on the chart of the last 3 NOP Golden Crosses exactly where the SP moved back the the MA before moving up, it never did before rising first. If you look back on the charts you will realise that it is now past tense, so the MA's have moved up to meet the price over the following 50 and 200 days, not the other way round.

The SP should not rise on every 5k shares if there is the right amount of stock in the free float, it is absurd to suggest that I should pay a premium on 10,000 shares over 5000, or on 50,000 over 45,000. A premium on 50,000 over 5,000 would be the expected change, then another premium at 100,000.

"In French Guiana interpretation of the newly acquired 3D data set continues with the maturation of several Jubilee type prospects, Tullow stated.

"The first and most exciting of which, Zaedyus, will be drilled in Q1 2011.

Tullows comments are from this mornings comprehensive interim management statement, in which it highlighted that the Jubilee will come on-stream in December to produce 58,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day - the top end of expectations.

First oil production from the Jubilee field is expected early next month and will transform Group production next year.

Jubilees production will ramp up to around 120,000 barrels per day over three to six months.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/22885/wessex-exploration-welcomes-tullow-oil-comments-on-guyane-maritime-license-22885.html



So Zaedyus is similar to Jubilee. Northern have a net beneficial 1.25% interest in Zaedyus.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20101214070000P1197



Therefore, if Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5 to 65% increase on its production today.

Top

My comment re crosses refered to the Market in general, not specifically NOP.

As NOP is a SETsMM stock I suggest if you wish to buy a large qty, use DMA and fill your order through the book. Although probable, MM manipulation is less of an issue with SETs.

Oh and the SP action merely reflects the orders on the book, not necessarily MM activity.

FROM LSE BB

Sebwinder
NOP - simple chartToday 12:41

http://www.screencast.com/users/Sebwinder/folders/Jing/media/cdc9c11d-d975-48b4-8613-ec27abf99f3c


Not only the new trend but a confirmed Golden Cross, with the 50 day average going over the rising 200 day average on both EMA and now SMA, this is one of the most bullish indicators you can get.

Get stuck in!

From Scotty1 on advfn.

7 t1ps for 2011 (Resources)
Today (2010-12-31 10:03:14)
Print this Article 7 t1ps for 2011 (Resources

3.Northern Petroleum (NOP) at 115p valuing it at c106 million. Northern has had a great few months. Not only are its Dutch gas assets coming onstream faster than we had expected but also the cold Northern winter has pushed the gas price ahead sharply. The company will - I predict - flog its UK assets during 2011 for at least 10 million. That would leave it sitting on 40 million of cash. Holland should be generating an annualised profit of 20 million for 2011 and on a 5 multiple (low given the growth potential) it has to be worth 100 million. In Italy I expect that Shell will, before Easter, commit to a huge onshore jv with Northern acreage into which it has farmed in. That - and news of other farm in deals elsewhere across the vast acreage Northern sits on - should tickle the fancy of many. Valuing Northern's Italian reserves at 3 a barrel (very mean indeed) they add 150 million to a s-o-t-p valuation. And there is the wild card of Guyane where Northern has a tiny stake in a huge block where there will be drilling this year. Call that a bonus ( although it could be a 7 figure bonus). Even without the bonus the s-o-t-p valuation is 290 million or 318p per share. With upside from a) sentiment if (I think when) oil prices surge, Italy when Shell commits, Guyane and a re-rating of Holland as output ( and gas prices) surge this is a share which could almost treble in 2011. It is my top oil pick and although well up on our original 13.75p tip price, at 115p Northern is a strong buy at up to 145p with a 350p target. This stock is held in the Growth Fund not the Gold Fund for a rather obvious reason.

Max buy yesterday 80,000 shares, max buy today 25,000 shares. Free float running low.

Tip for 2011 from The Times.

Tempus Tips for 2011

* BHP Billiton, BG, Northern Petroleum, Catlin Group, Tullett Prebon, Intermediate Capital Group, Cookson Group, Capita, F&C Asset Management and e2v technologies.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/new-year-papers-estonia-joins-crisis-hit-euro-club-others-wary-business-money-and-tips/a460082/full

Goldman Sachs Note from November 2010 where they initiated coverage with a 189p target, with the initial one prospect(of six if I remember corretcly) offshore Italy offering 500% upside potential on that. Italy drilling decision has to be made by Shell by end of March. Goldman Sachs have put Q3 2011 as the drilling date, therefore NOP could be 189p+500% = 9.45 in 2011.

Source of opportunity
Northern Petroleum offers, in our view, an attractive combination of strong core value in the Netherlands, and the possibility for high-impact exploration in the longer term. We believe that the companys producing and discovered gas assets in the Netherlands and other core value gives 93% upside to the current share price,
before accounting for liquidity adjustments, and that the stock is therefore inexpensive. There are exploration catalysts in the Netherlands too, which we believe could add 10% to our valuation over the next 2-3 years. The real potential in our view, however, lies in the companys assets in Italy where it holds a number of offshore exploration licences with substantial potential. West of Sicily, the company has brought in Shell as a partner which gives a degree of credibility to the play, while in the South Adriatic Sea the company currently is 100% owner. We are cautious on the ability to monetize oil resources in Italy, noting the difficulties that companies have had in sanctioning assets such as Tempa Rossa and give the companys Italian oil assets a 75% political risking on top of the required geological risking. (We note that the company is confident the recent ban on drilling in Italian waters within five nautical miles of the coast should have limited or no effect on its prospects as they are further offshore than the areas the ban impacts.) In the event that exploration is successful, and the resource can be monetized, the potential is vast: success for one of the companys assets in the West of Sicily would add almost 500% to our valuation. The companys 1.25% stake in Tullows exploration block in Guyana is also of potential interest, despite the stake being small, as it offers large volumes and the potential for follow-on drilling in the event of success. We initiate coverage of the company with a Buy rating and a price target of 189p.

Catalyst
Continued growth from the companys assets in the Netherlands is a relatively low risk catalyst. We expect the prospect in Guyana to be drilled in the coming months. We do not expect significant activity in Italy in the near term, but the approach of drilling in the country should also help share price performance.

Valuation
Our 12-month SOTP price target is calculated using a US$85/bl assumed oil price. We include risked value for two prospects in the West of Sicily licence in Italy but apply a 75% political risking on top of geological risk, and also apply a 50% discount to these catalysts as we expect them to be drilled later than 12 months from now.

Key risks
Key downside risks to our view and target price are a weakening of the European gas price, cost overruns and delays in the development of the companys assets in the Netherlands or delays in exploration and sanctioning activities in Europe.

Page 250
http://www.mediafire.com/?i5bdmxxpmo6tm16

This applies to all oil companies, but just from NOP's view it means greater revenues in 2011, which leads to an increased valuation as the market continually prices in the oil price rise. Golman Sachs valuation is 189p based on $85 a barrel, yet 2011 looks to have an average near 25% higher than that, suggesting the NOP valuation for 2011 should be 25% higher at 236p

"The forecasts for oil, like the outlook for the US economy, are almost universally positive. A double digit oil price is a thing of 2010, in 2011 expectations are centering on a price closer to $110, probably higher. Already weve seen comments out of the OPEC that the global economy can cope with an oil price of $100, so dont be surprised if the oil cartel begins to increase its price target."

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Gold-oil-copper-silver-iron-ore-commodities-metals-pd20101231-CMTTN?OpenDocument

Excluding the huge 945p potential of Italy I have done a couple of charts to show how long it should take to get to 2 per share, with and without the Golden Cross effect. The difference is that without the Golden Cross effect the stock should take 6 months longer to reach 2. This is why the Golden Cross is such an important very bullish indicator.

P.S. The MA's I have used are 50EMA and 200EMA. The 50SMA has also now crossed above the rising 200SMA as a confirmation of the Golden Cross.

Interview with Gazprom Chief Alexei Miller

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,737443,00.html

Northern Petroleum - Times tip of the year
January 03, 2011

Amid a dull selection of blue chips published today Martin "Taliban" Waller has picked Northern Petroleum as one of his ten tips of the year for The Times Tempus column. Normally such an endorsement would be a good sell signal but on this occassion I am at one with Waller - Northern was one of my 7 resource tips of the year for 2011. At 109p the t1ps Growth Fund ( which owns shed loads already) is likely to be buying more next week. Target price 350p.

Tom Winnifrith

http://www.jpjshare.com/content/News/11-01-03/Northern_Petroleum_-_Times_tip_of_the_year.aspx

Martin Waller is Deputy City Editor at The Times

"when the forecast net production of over 2,250 barrels of oil a day once Wijk en Aalburg is on-stream is achieved, we will have reached a good base for advancing overall growth of the group."
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/21431/northern-petroleum-starts-production-at-third-netherlands-field-21431.html

Well that would be right now then wouldn't it!

"Northern announces that production has started from the at Wijk en Aalburg gas field in The Netherlands. The forecasted contracted gross gas sales volume from the Wijk en Aalburg field is 150,000 normal cubic meters per day (5.6 million standard cubic feet per day or 963 barrels of oil equivalence per day (boepd), 433 boepd net to Northern), which brings Northerns daily production capacity to the higher end of our forecasted 2200 - 2300 boepd."
http://www.northpet.com/news/detail/2010/12/fourth-new-netherlands-gas-field-put-into-production


So NOP is now at "a good base for advancing overall growth of the group"

Going well today, up 10p, more to come methinks ;)

Current shareprice seems way under priced compared to analyst forcasts. 2 by Christmas ?

robnickson, your target is a bit low?

Here is how I think it will pan out. I am referring to recent posts on here so go back and look if you want more info on any of the points:

Current SP should be 196p according to Goldman Sachs, this is at $85 a barrel. The consensus expected 2011 average for oil is around 25% higher, which would lead to an increased valuation on NOP to 235p
t1ps.com have a 'buy up to 145p with a 350p target' recommendation
NOP is a 'Tip for 2011' from The Times
3 brokers are listed on Digital Look, all have 'strong buy' for NOP
Matrix analysts have a 170p target
http://gecr.co.uk/ have a 314p target

Results from MW1 should be in within a week or two, if they hit 35m to 60m barrels and a producer it will be seen as big news for NOP.

Tullow are drilling Guyana in Q1. The oilfield is expected to be similar to the nearby Jubilee field which is running at 58,000 bpd rising soon to 120,000 bpd. If Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5% to 65% increase on its production today. See post 90.

Based upon the above the NOP SP should easily pass 2 by the end of Q1.

Also by the end of Q1 Shell Italia MUST make a decision on drilling the Thrust and Fold belt offshore Italy, targeting 1Bn+ barrels of oil. Goldman Sachs have pencilled in Q3 2011 for the drilling.

Based on Shell Italia going ahead with drilling in Q3 2011, the SP should rise rapidly on the announcement and continue rising as the date nears for the spudding in Q3.

Goldman Sachs have valued a successful oil strike on a producer of 1Bn barrels as being worth 500% on their valuation of 196p, taking it to 945p. Allowing for the 25% higher oil price the valuation would increase to 1181p

So by the time Shell Italia are drilling the Thrust and Fold belt in Q3, the NOP SP should be speculatively bought up to at least 4 per share, leaving room for a double or treble for those already in, if they hit 1Bn+ barrels of producible oil as expected.

Digital Look Analysts, 3 strong buy and very bullish figures for 2011/2012. None of them will have included anything for Italy yet.