I don't think their name "Telford" indicates where they operate - East London according to Shares.

The current sp 1.50 is more-or-less the price prior to the Olympic Bid, which probably gave the sp a boost, withouit looking to far to the cost involved.

It's been all downhill for the last 12-months - Oooo deary.
The yield isn't good, despite the fall.

this isn't a whizz-bang stock, but certainly lots right about it and i put a number into my sipp a few months back
the chart is quite encouraging have just poked back about 200 dma, but still a long way from its high and curiously, sp has been having trouble re-piercing 50 dma

Been watching for months, so putting money in now.

Jim Slater: my tax-free share portfolio is up 35pc in a year

TEF is not longer a buy but a hold ............

Telford Homes
This company, a residential property developer, reported excellent results in May. Then, at the annual meeting in July, it reported that there was still very strong demand for its homes.
From a launch of 148 apartments, villas and penthouses at one of its sites in Bermondsey, south London, 92 were sold in June, adding £43m to forward sales, which now stand at more than £620m. Bear in mind that Telford is valued by the stock market at only £250m.
A planning delay has caused a decrease in the company’s earnings per share estimate for 2017, with an equivalent increase coming in 2018. Its broker, Peel Hunt, has a target price of 550p and forecast that Telford’s pre-tax profits would rise from £25m in 2015 to £43m by 2018.
At 417p, on a prospective p/e ratio of about 10 and a rising dividend yield of 3.5pc, Telford’s shares are a strong hold.

telegraph/Jim-Slater-my-tax-free-share-portfolio-is-up-35pc-in-a-year

i'm more than happy to hold for all the reasons given in my various posts about it

430p +10p

Trading update

Telford Homes Plc (AIM:TEF), the London focused residential property developer, is pleased to give the following trading update ahead of its interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2015, which will be released on Wednesday, 2 December 2015.

Highlights
●
Profit before tax for the six months to 30 September 2015 expected to more than double compared to the equivalent period last year (H1 2014: £9.4 million)
●
Strong forward sold position of over £685 million to be recognised across five financial years (31 March 2015: over £550 million)
●
The Group has acquired the regeneration business of United House Developments which has the potential to add some £500 million of revenue to the existing £1 billion development pipeline
●
Planning permissions secured at key sites including Caledonian Road (156 homes), Chobham Farm (471 homes) and Redclyffe Road (192 homes)
●
Group well on track to deliver growth and profit expectations for the year to 31 March 2016 and beyond

Current trading
Telford Homes remains focused on relatively affordable locations in non-prime inner London where the average price of an open market home is typically between £500 and £800 per square foot. At this price level demand from investors, tenants and owner-occupiers continues to be strong and yet there are still not enough new homes being constructed. Whilst there has been a necessary and expected slowing in demand for prime property, this is a very different market to those in which the Group operates.

The Group has recently opened a new sales and marketing centre in Stratford to give Telford Homes a permanent presence in the heart of its area of operation. The remaining 32 homes at Stratosphere were launched from this centre on 8 October with 18 reservations secured by the end of the first day. Following several successful sales launches in the last six months, the Group's forward sold position currently stands at over £685 million to be recognised across five financial years from the year to 31 March 2016 onwards (31 March 2015: over £550 million).

Legal completions on forward sold homes are also being achieved in line with expectations. These completions are weighted towards the first half of the current financial year and, as a result, the Board anticipates that profit before tax for the six months to 30 September 2015 will more than double compared to the equivalent period last year. Given the forward sold position the Group remains well on track to meet profit expectations for the year to 31 March 2016 and beyond.

Development pipeline
On 21 September 2015 the Group reported that it had acquired the regeneration business of United House Developments. The developments that were acquired in this transaction are all in the Group's core area and have the potential to add some £500 million of revenue to the existing £1 billion development pipeline. As a result of the anticipated timing and phasing of some of the developments, Telford Homes now has an enhanced longer term strategic pipeline stretching over the next eight years and this represents an excellent platform for further investment and future growth.

The Group has also achieved significant success in progressing planning for several of its key developments. The Board is pleased to report that, after an initial delay, full planning permission is in place for 156 homes at Caledonian Road, N1 and work is underway on site. In addition planning permission has been granted in the last few weeks for 471 homes at Chobham Farm, Stratford in partnership with Notting Hill Housing Group and for 192 homes at Redclyffe Road, E6. Both of these were approved at recent planning meetings and are subject to signing the usual legal agreements.

Outlook
The fundamental lack of supply of new homes at an affordable price in London continues to underpin the Group's growth plans over the next few years. In addition demand remains high from all of the Group's typical customers such that the Board continues to be very confident in investing further in the development pipeline. London has a growing economy, an excellent transport network and, given the market dynamics in the Group's operating area, there is nowhere the Board would rather be developing in the foreseeable future.

Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented: "Telford Homes is focused on relatively affordable locations in non-prime inner London where the demand for new homes from investors, tenants and owner-occupiers far exceeds the supply. The Group continues to add to its development pipeline and our recent acquisition of the regeneration business of United House Developments has resulted in an enhanced longer term strategic pipeline stretching over the next eight years. With over £685 million of forward sales secured, Telford Homes remains well on track to meet profit expectations for the year to 31 March 2016 and beyond."

Shares fall 10% on £50m placing announcement.

Will probably be a good bit of diversification away from prime inner London. Outside London is allegedly performing better now if the housing stats are accurate.

re - placing
that means shareholders are losing ground

Telford Homes placing to raise £50m
Telford Homes is raising £50m, gross, through a placing of 13,888,889 new ordinary shares at 360 pence per share.

The group says London has a growing economy with an excellent transport network and yet suffers from a fundamental lack of supply of new homes at an affordable price, and demand remains high from the group's typical customers.

It says that following the recent acquisition of the regeneration business of United House Developments for £23 million the group has a substantial platform from which it can undertake further investment. And it says it has a number of opportunities to acquire new developments that require additional funds beyond those deployed for the acquisition.

The net proceeds will be invested in some of these development opportunities and are expected to be committed within one year and fully utilised within two years.

The board believes that the placing will enable the group to target annual profit before tax exceeding £45m from 2019 onwards and increasing towards £60m thereafter.

The placing is conditional on shareholder approval at a general meeting on 13 November.

Chief executive Jon Di-Stefano said: "Telford Homes is experiencing strong demand for its homes in non-prime inner London and has a sector leading forward sold position of almost four times last year's reported revenue. This is due in part to a fundamental lack of supply of new homes in London at an affordable price.

"The imbalance between supply and demand is not going away and the Group already has a substantial development pipeline to take advantage of this in the coming years. Despite that, there are more opportunities available in the Group's typical locations. The proposed Placing will enable Telford Homes to take advantage of those opportunities and achieve enhanced longer term growth in its output of new homes and therefore in reported profits and dividends paid to shareholders."
At 3:48pm: (LON:TEF) Telford Homes PLC share price was -33.12p at 376.88p

i understand why companies prefer placings over rights, for they are cheaper to do and the end-buyer certain
however, it is intrinsically unfair on the existing shareholders - 'twas always thus i'm afarid

Exactly and at 360p fantastic value which is why us folk get left out. Still, looks like a double bottom at 380p. Or triple if you go back to March this year.

Bought some

middle price now 380.25p

It looks like yesterday was the low point on the share price as the placing @ 360p reaches the end. High growth company and at this price is worth backing as results due very soon should see double profits at the interim stage.
Stronger order book and shares bouncing from lows yesterday

A recent email from the CEO to a share holder after the placing

Dear Steph,

Apologies for coming back to you so late in the day. We have had a few similar queries from private shareholders and although you have asked a specific question about earnings and dilution I have set out below a wider rationale for the placing. I hope you don’t mind me covering all the bases at once but it saves me having to pick and choose bits of it depending on each enquiry and you may have had follow up queries on some of these issues.

Why did we do it – the financial reasons

In simple terms to drive the longer term growth of the business it was always likely that we would need additional equity at some point. Our business is capital hungry and a typical larger development can require circa £50 to £80 million between land value and build costs and takes around three years to develop. Therefore the cycle is slow and this means growth eventually slows even with continued forward sales.

Why now rather than later comes down to two factors – opportunities in the market and the profit profile over the next couple of years. To be clear we did not need to raise the equity to fund the United House acquisition. This was very much a land acquisition deal that gave us some assets that were right up our street and enabled us to have a longer term more strategic element to the pipeline for the first time. However it does mean that we have allocated future equity to these developments in our cash flows and therefore inevitably they fill up the pipeline such that we cannot take other opportunities that are out there. So the fact that we had a full pipeline but could see more opportunities in a positive market was a significant factor in the timing.

Additionally we have an issue with profit timings in relation to 2017 and I am sure this has not helped the share price in recent months. Despite the long term nature of our developments there are ways of bringing profit recognition forward where homes are built under construction contracts. No doubt you have already noticed that we have started to talk about selling developments to institutions for PRS and this is becoming a hot topic for the industry as a whole. From our point of view this is not of interest because it accelerates profit recognition but instead because it represents an exciting new string to our bow. Nevertheless it has the benefit of earlier profit recognition and of course enhanced returns on equity due to the payment profile.

We are now seriously pursuing PRS possibilities and as a result we are currently marketing Caledonian Road to potential buyers on this basis. This is public knowledge as it has been in the market for a few weeks now. This and any other PRS deals would bring profits forward which if they cannot be replaced quickly enough just leaves a hole in the profit growth further out – i.e. robbing one year to pay another.

.The placing should enable us to smooth that impact by acquiring new sites more swiftly and therefore I believe that a combination of the placing and a couple of PRS sales would enable us to return to a broadly increasing profit growth profile from now onwards. Clearly this is not assured at this point but we have some confidence in the PRS market given our current marketing exploits.

We have previously talked about doubling profits from £19.2m in 2014 to circa £40m by 2018 and then growing from there. With the benefit of the placing plus initial PRS sales we can achieve at least that by 2018 with a smoother growth profile than currently forecast. This in the context of needing to spend the placing money and then build the developments before most of the real profit value comes in. Beyond 2018 we expect it to mean that we can continue to grow every year with no periods of stagnation while we wait for our existing capital to turn round in the development cycle. This we have broadly set out as £45 million growing towards £60 million and I appreciate you may consider these targets to be undemanding. Please consider that there is natural prudence required in forecasting that far ahead and a lot can happen in five years. We are not assuming for now that we perpetuate the sale of more developments to PRS investors further into the future and if we did do that then it would of course continue to bring profit recognition forward in later years.

We do not know what the future holds but as a result of this placing we believe that not only do we have the potential to remove a short term dip in our profit forecasts but also to ensure that our long term profit earning potential is significantly improved. Alongside this we have a stronger balance sheet and an improved net asset value per share. I believe that any housebuilder should be valued based on a hybrid of earnings potential and net asset value. We of course have a lot of our assets forward sold which also secures some of the enhanced future value.

A final point here is that this is a significant equity raise in the context of our size and is aimed at preventing the need to return to the market for more money in the coming years.

Why not just use debt?

We already have a very flexible, relatively cheap £180 million facility and we will still use it over the coming years. In fact we expect to increase it in the future. However banks themselves do not like our gearing to be too high and reducing it gives them greater confidence. In addition investors are much more negative on the issue and it frequently comes up in institutional meetings. Our peer group of course are relatively ungeared although we are of a different scale to them. High gearing holds our share price back because people see risk in debt.
... High gearing holds our share price back because people see risk in debt. We agree with this in terms of needing to reduce longer term reliance on debt and although we still expect short term gearing to increase we are conscious of needing to reduce it in later years even if it is at the expense of some potential additional earnings growth that could be achieved by throwing caution to the wind and ignoring all other views on risk.

Why not a rights issue or an open offer?

I am well aware that not having the opportunity to buy at 360 pence is frustrating and annoying for private investors. As I have said before the directors are in the same boat in terms of dilution and there were a number of reasons why we chose a placing.

Firstly we have quite a narrow institutional shareholder base in terms of large institutions but we do have lots of retail investors and small funds involved. Directors, related parties and share schemes own circa 20% and could not have taken part in a rights issue (timing and availability of funds). In addition some of our institutional shareholders (or the relevant fund managers) have been trying to sell some of their shares over the last 18 months due to issues with their funds - not I must add due to a problem with us. They are trying to reduce their holding not increase and accordingly they have not taken shares in the placing. In addition rights issues rarely get taken up by a large proportion of private or retail holders due to the nature of the holding and the potential cost involved. In short we were not confident we could raise the money from existing shareholders and a failed rights issue would have been a significant negative for the company.

A rights issue also takes time and that is dangerous when raising money. Sentiment is a big part of trying to encourage new holders to come in and in an industry that everyone sees as cyclical you are never far from a bad press day or an analyst publishing a negative report even if you don’t agree with it. Housebuilder sentiment appears to have worsened in the last few days and I am sure it would be more difficult to raise the money now.

The money has been raised from over 30 different institutions and the majority of these are new shareholders many with the potential to add to their holding in the future. This should improve liquidity in the shares which has been a bit of an issue of late and I think holds back the price even when good news is announced. I appreciate some of them can sell for a profit in the future and we may never see them again but I believe we have increased the number of long term holders and therefore those who may take up the slack when others are selling. New institutional holders want to start with a reasonable position and rarely pick up scraps as their first acquisition.

Why £3.60?

Some of this is answered by the sentiment issue above and the fact that we were dealing with new holders looking for an entry price and not so many existing holders trying to mitigate the dilution. Again we are well aware this is a dilutive price but I believe the benefits will be worth it and we are all shareholders alongside you. In context the dilutive effect of the shares at £3.60 is to reduce existing holders to circa 81.4% of the ownership. Raising £50 million at say £4.10 (the closing price the day before) would have increased this residual holding by less than 2% to 83.3%. Granted an important difference but not so significant and hence why we proceeded at that price. As you know we are also intending to offset the dilution in the dividend for the next couple of years.

What are we doing with the money?

We have already said that we expect to commit the funds within one year and utilise them in full within two (the distinction being committing subject to planning and then paying upon receipt of a consent). We have not announced any of the likely acquisitions at this point and we have to secure them in contract before we do. All I will say is that we have several long term partners bringing sites to the market and whilst we will not win them all we definitely did not want to be telling them that we did not have the money to bid in the first place. The long term dynamics of our market are too good to be doing that whilst also damaging our standing in terms of future land buying.

My apologies for this lengthy email and in addition I am aware that I have not answered your specific query in the way you wanted due to restrictions on what I can tell you regarding future forecasts. I hope however that it helps you to understand what we have done and why. We firmly believe it is for the good of all shareholders.

Don’t hesitate to get in touch if you have any other queries.

Kind regards,
Jon

many thanks for that post
what a well set out and clear letter from the ceo which even a dope like me could understand

i'm not pleased that my holding is at quite a bit higher price, but that is the nature of things ....... however, as a long term holder in a good sector, i am very happy indeed as i think this is an excellent company for all sorts of reasons

Last night I set myself to buy this morning if it was moving lower close to the 360p placing as the future market was looking on the way down.

Waiting all morning since 8.30am for some type of retrace, after opening well up and nothing, so I Bought some, and then at 2:50pm MMs manipulated the order book taking the higher bids away and down to 373p and then 369.50p, has recovered some ground since

note - MM SCAP was one of the guitty parties

with the markets crashing around our ears, any stock that shows blue today is a rarity

My forecast made early this morning

Half Year result for 2016 due soon maybe before this month end

Profit before tax £19M
tax ................. £4M
Profits after tax £15M
EPS .............. 24.75p
dividend ......... 6.50p
No. shares used 60.6M

This afternoon shake lasted till almost the end of the day when it went back to the last "AT" 383p

Chart of the week: FTSE 100 heading for 3,500?
By John Burford | Mon, 16th November 2015 - 11:26

In the normal course of my analysis of share charts of constituents of the FTSE 100 (UKX) index, I focus mainly on the stand-alone technical picture of each market, independent of current general business conditions. 

Most of the time, especially during the bull market of 2009-2015, many shares were also in bull markets, although I have found several stand-out examples of bearish charts (see my Barclays (BARC) coverage, in particular).

But no company exists in a vacuum.  If business conditions are good, most companies will thrive and sentiment is bullish.  But when sentiment turns down - as I believe is occurring now - many shares will change trend to down.

As an investor - which in reality is really a long-term trader - you can maximise your returns by selling shares near the top and sitting on the cash.  I have never understood why someone would hold a share through all of the ups and downs that inevitably occur over a timespan of many years.

If it is the dividends you like, why not sell and then buy back at much lower prices?  Of course, the reason is sheer inertia - and lack of confidence.  And that is where technical analysis can help. 

Yes, I believe the general market is now turning down, and today I want to show you my evidence based on the FTSE 100 index itself.

This is the chart I pulled only two weeks ago showing the entire 2009-2015 bull run:

(click to enlarge)

There are several important technical aspects of this chart that stand out.

1) The entire rally has the shape of a three-wave A-B-C, rather than a five wave pattern.  The A-B-C is always counter-trend, implying that when the C wave terminates, the major downtrend will resume.  If this were really part of a five wave advance, the market would recover from the August swoon and go on to new highs in a fifth wave.  This is still a possible outcome, but it is of much lower odds because...

2) The major six-year uptrend line (in blue) is a solid line of support that has been broken in August and is now a line of resistance.  Note the several highly accurate touch points all the way along it, making it a highly reliable line.  The August break is a watershed event that has turned the bull market into a new bear market.

3) From August, the market has recovered and kissed the underside of the blue line of resistance.  If this is a genuine kiss, then the next move will be a scalded cat bounce down (a sharp retreat).  This is a typical reaction when the market, having broken key support and gingerly moved back to the line, is hit for six.  It is like the north poles of two magnets kissing - and repelling each other with force. 

And in the past two weeks, this is the action on the daily chart:

(click to enlarge)

I am calling the August plunge low a new large wave 1 and the rally to the kiss wave 2, which has the traditional counter-trend A-B-C form.  The scalded cat bounce down has now confirmed that the odds for the market to make a new high, let alone rise above the blue line, are slim.  The blue line has been tested and found to be strong resistance.

This all fits into my "third wave down" scenario.  Because third waves are usually long and strong, what does this imply?  Simply that the market is headed for a major decline.  Here are my ideas on the weekly chart:

(click to enlarge)

My first target is the Fibonacci 50% retrace of the entire six-year rally at the 5,300 region.  But my major objective is the Fibonacci 62% support level at the 4,800 area.  This is where previous lows were made on the way up (red arrows) and, because markets have long memories, this Fibonacci level contains extra-strong support potential.

I will be looking for a major wave 4 rally phase here, but, when completed, the market should descend in a fifth wave, which should test the 2009 lows at the 3,500 region.

To many, these may seem outrageous forecasts - and that may be a clue that complacency has set rock-hard.  We know that the global economy is weakening and is in a major deflationary spiral.  Debt levels everywhere are sky-high and interest rates have been kept super-low for years, but will soon start to rise.

Not only that, but there is trouble brewing in the credit markets, with US corporate junk bond defaults rising rapidly.  Bear markets in stocks usually start in the credit markets. Here is a sobering chart:

(click to enlarge)

Because debt levels are so much greater now than just before the Credit Crunch, rising defaults will have a greater impact across the debt spectrum - including the good-as-gold US Treasuries (and UK Gilts).

It will be a deflationary depression played out in the stockmarket - and I am sure I will be showing more bearish charts in COTW than bullish in the coming months.

Flash Alert

Overnight, the markets are reacting to the implications of the Paris bombings with early losses being erased.  Note that the low has been put in right on the Fibonacci 78% support level as shown on the hourly chart.  This is at the round-number 6,000 level:

(click to enlarge)

This is one more demonstration of how very important the Fibonacci levels are when looking for potential support or resistance levels.

385p +5p

Equities Research Company Update 16 November 2015
Research analyst : Robin Hardy

Still an under-valued stock: We have historically valued Telford on the same
basis as the volume national builders but this increasingly feels wrong. We see
unparalleled visibility, a clear long-term strategy, a solid focus on growth and, in
our view, still highly favourable local market dynamics. We still see fair value here
at 490p and believe that the stock is under-valued on both earnings and NAV
bases in a sector that otherwise appears stretched.

Telford Homes+

Fresh capital for capital growth
Telford Homes has raised £50m of new capital that will be used to expand,
accelerate and prolong growth. The capital base is expanded and with
continuing confidence in Telford’s local markets in London, we see greatly
enhanced prospects. The development pipeline already extends out to FY2024F
and contains up to £1.5bn of gross development value (GDV), 6.5x current year
revenue, and via the new funds we expect the pipeline to expand further from
FY2017F. This, along with close to £700m of forward sales, gives Telford by far
the greatest earnings visibility in the sector. Coupling the now substantial capital
base with still strong market opportunities for securing new sites and continued
strong buyer demand, we see great value here with fair value still at 490p. The
rating shows an FY2019F PER of 7.5x and P/NAV of 1.14x meaning this stock
presents material upside in a sector otherwise struggling to show any.

Long visibility, sustainable growth and FY2017F forecasts raised: The pipeline
of sites to bring through to development already stands at c.£1.5bn, having been
boosted by c.£500m via the £23m United House acquisition. Now that £50m of
additional resource is available to the group, we can see this expanding even
further as Telford looks to identify sites within the next 12 months and to commit
the new capital fully within two years. Supported by the new equity, we have
raised our PBT forecast for FY2017F from £25.1m to £31.9m

A still bullish market climate in Telford’s London: The media seeks to portray
high risk in London residential but we still see great opportunity for developers in
more affordable areas. Demand still heavily outweighs supply, population growth
is unabated, we see buyers gravitating towards markets offering greater relative
value and there is no practical evidence that buyer demand has diminished.
Widening the sales channel while also de-risking: Telford has opened a new
sales channel: the institutionally funded private rental sector (IPRS). We see this
becoming an important part of the London housing market, helping to bridge the
supply gap; it is good for a developer to align with this new market segment, in our
view. IPRS allows a site to run with minimal capital, no debt, full sales visibility
and earlier profit recognition while delivering overall

---------------
Telford Homes (Buy) - PEEL HUNT - 16 November 2016

2020 Vision
Telford Homes has raised £50m in new equity, which is to be invested in new developments. We forecast the group to double profits by 2020, with visibility on profits supported by a sector-leading forward sales position. The group is very well placed to grow output significantly in non-prime inner London, where the acute shortage of new homes is expected to persist. Our new target price of 475p implies potential upside of 29% and we retain our Buy recommendation.......
Https://s3.amazonaws.com/peelhunt/151113_Peel_Hunt_Telford_Homes_MN.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A&Expires=1447774715&Signature=%2Fsj%2FUlkutZITTy1TTzDr%2B6V46Qg%3D

Since around 9am the trades are more often and share price has warm up from the large spread at opening. 370 v 385p
Yesterday's closing price UT was at Offer price 385p

Also a catch up with the piers as most of them are up by 2 to 3%
a much stronger order book with DEPTH of 23 v 14