I know there's an existing thread for TEP, but I'm blowed if I can find it.
Anyway, things aren't looking too good for this share at the moment. Been on a downward spiral for some weeks, after hitting over 4.
Very low volume today, and sells seem to equal buys, so why the continuing drop? Seriously thinking of getting rid, and taking what is now a very small (and I mean small!) profit.

Any experts on TEP like to add their two pennorth?

Princess

A tickup. TEP is well undervalued and should be atleast 300+. Remember directors were buying in on the way down @323.

Another tickup today. holding steady at the moment. very light on volume

ED story appears to have been very positive and turned on the distributors which is the objective anyway. The lack of projections, though, means relatively little impact on price. Suspect not much movement before interims unless there is an earlier trading statement. The PE should drop to around 15 at current prices, price to sales drop to 1.5 and PEG remain below 0.4 On this basis price should return to levels earlier in the year.

Eric

Yes I hope so.

Yes a decent move up today. looking impressive now.

Very quite here. SP holding steady.

Interim x-div (4.5p) 10 - Dec - 2003
Payment date 05 - Jan - 2004

Next interim announcement 17 - Dec - 2004

azhar

Keeping an eye on you all! Wouldn't expect much movement either way before the interim post. That will be important and I would expect it to be positive. Most watchers of TEP assume they will be having difficulties with the competition in utilities not realising that they should really be the one and only share in a sector called network marketing. The ED briefing document was very professional and shows that Charles Wigoder and his management team are very much in control of events. Charles, in some ways, is the company and he is at pains to reinforce his commitment. His continuous buying of shares for family trusts supports this. You certainly get the impression that the success of the company is the really important thing for him, together with making his successful distributors millionaires as well (plus the odd shareholder, who in many cases, are the same people what with option schemes, loads of money to invest, etc.). I have my own funds heavily concentrated on ASC but hope they will hit 1 before Xmas and enable a poistion to be built up in TEP.

Eric

Yes, I see ASC is doing very well in the past few days. Good luck.

Drifting down again. Took some profits recently and will wait to top up. Still holding some form 241. Any views on why it has gone down by so much in the last few days?

Doesn't seem to be any news. I have sold some at 277p but hold quite a few still. Moved some cash into BPRG. Hope I am right. W/S

Why the fall?
Is there some bad news in the results on 14th Dec ?
Hope not

it may be because profit margins are expected to be lower when results are published next tuesday or the fact that this always happens with TEP just before results are published.

Looking at TEP for an investment prior to the results. The price movement indicates a level of pessimism. The PE is down to 20. Last year turnover was up 41% and pbt 90%. The only indicated negative at final results was the pressure on gas prices; TEP have since put an embargo on new custormers for energy only. However, I believe the margin problem was short-term and will have gone now. I can't see turnover growth slowing down at present - partly due to the business model with an increasing number of new distributors who fund their own activity and the success of the 'Utilities warehouse' concept which means that more customers are taking multiple services. 40% pbt growth would bring prospective PE to 14; even 30% implies 16 and a PEG factor of about 0.6.

Can any of those closer to the company give further insights? Tplus Guy?

Eric

The market is clearly looking for a slow-down

EWRobson,

yes I think a "slowdown" is inevitable now that there is so much competition for telecom services.

IMHO you cannot ignore the competition, and the Carphone Warehouse has hoovered up many customers in a short space of time, and whilst the distributor method has it's merits, it also has it's limitations, ie lack of saturation coverage due to selected customer targeting.

I believe they have taken the correct action in not allowing energy only customers, as margins are wafer thin and they make the bulk of their margin on telephony.

I am a telephony customer, and about to switch my energy.

Andy

Thanks for comments. It would be good to hear from Tplus Guy or another distributor about trading conditions. Nothing was said, I gather, at Express Day in September which was shortly before end of half year. Obviously, the key to price movement from next week will be expectations for trading for balance of year. Looking back at the preliminary report published in June there were some strong indicators: "The combination of our unique multi-service utility proposition, the successful introduction of out new 'Club' concept and teh exceptional value we are providing to our customers gives us great confidence in our ability to deliver sustained growth over the coming years." Chairman-speak, yes. But this would hardly lead you to anticipate a significant slow-down in revenue and profit growth this year, yet that seems to be assumed in the price. The dividend yield is now 4.5% for heaven's sake.

I think I have talked myself into that cfd tomorrow (money is there anyway, because of teh rise of ASOS). Downside potential is very low, certainly not more than 10% or so. Upside potential must be nearer 40% to recover the stock to the level at which the directors were buying early this year. 4:1 probability. That's worth a flutter, wouldn't you say?

Eric

Nice to hear ur comments again Eric. I ended up selling I'm afraid and made some profit :)

Now back to the same price when i previously bought. My gut feeling says it may still go down a bit more before a decent rise (agree 40%). Don't know when, after the results or b4?

azhar

Results are next Tuesday. A general lack of anticipation reflected in the dwindling share price. My own feeling is that the sp is anticipating a slow down. Yet comments in June were quite bullish. We know that they being cautious about the energy side but this is not a major part of profit. Wigoder added 100,000 shares in July but no director action since. My plan, unless persuaded otherwise, is to take a position before the results because continued progress seems bound to lead to a reappraisal. For instance, the dividend is likely to be increased in line with improved profits. We would then have the virtuous position of a stock being attractive for its yield but with a super growth record which is being projected forward.

Eric

Hoy! Where are you, folk? Results tomorrow! TEP up 18.5% today! Times repeated their final results this morning to whet the appetite! My cfd at 245p is looking good but I will be up early tomorrow to chech the results! I beleive that the share has been marked down because of gas prices, but part of centrica's problem is that british gas have been losing share, including to TEP. Utilities are not a large part of business at moment and I see no reason why telecom business should not have been motoring ahead. The extra constraints on BT will have been helping.

Eric

Good thing didn't get back in now down 13%.

Telecom Plus PLC
14 December 2004


TELECOM plus PLC

14 December 2004

Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2004

Telecom plus PLC, the UK's leading low-cost integrated multi-utility (gas,
electricity, telephony, internet), announces interim results for the six months
ended 30 September 2004.

Financial and business highlights:

Profit before tax up 31% to 6.4 m (2003: 4.9m)

Turnover up 15% to 42.8m (2003: 37.2m)

Interim dividend up 11% to 5p (2003: 4.5p)

New mobile and broadband services launched

Peter Nutting, Chairman, said:

'We are a highly focused business and expect to see continuing
organic growth by providing more utility services to a growing
customer base. Our unique business model gives us a strong
competitive edge over our much larger competitors, and despite the
short-term losses