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BowLeven Undervalued on NAV basis? / Oversold ??? (BLVN)     

soul traders - 27 Mar 2006 18:07

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=BLVN&S



RNS today gives BowLeven's interim results and highlights the following:

RNS Number:2495ABowLeven Plc23 March 2006 BowLeven Plc23 March 2006

BowLeven Plc ('BowLeven' or 'the Company')
Interim results for the six months to 31 December 2005
Bow Leven, the Cameroon-focused oil & gas company listed on AIM, today announces its interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2005.

Highlights include:
* Cash of #62 million
* 3D seismic survey underway on blocks MLHP 5 and MLHP 6 of Etinde permit
* Reserves of 60.3 mmboe remain in place
* Four well drilling programme being prepared for early 2007
* Loss for the period #0.7 million
* Concentration on original strategic plan including implementation of Gas To Electricity ('GTE') Plant in Cameroon


At today's offer price of 195p, the company is valued at 57.7 million. However, they claim to have audited Resources consisting of 60.3 mmboe of Reserves and 58.2 mmboe of Contingent Resources. There is supposed to be a copy of the auditors' report on the website but I can't find it (UPDATE - have now requested this via e-mail) (NEW UPDATE - I never got a reply but the auditors' report can be found in the AIM admission document).

BLVN also has 60 million in cash, which ought to more than see it through its next lot of drilling.

This, however, is scheduled for 2007, which may be one reason why the SP is held back. But to me it still looks cheap. It is almost certainly oversold after the announcement of bad news in the latter half of last year.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

grevis2 - 18 Feb 2012 00:59 - 89 of 403

Guardian blog...

There was also some takeover excitement, albeit lower down the market.

In the Chinese year of the Dragon which has just started, oil explorer Bowleven has found itself in the sights of a rival named after the mythical beast. Shares in the company, which has projects off the coast of Cameroon, jumped 46p to 120p or 62%, as Dragon Oil revealed it was considering an offer for the company. If the move was successful it would allow Dragon, which has around $1.5bn of cash in the bank, to expand from its core activities in Turkmenistan.

Traders were talking of an offer of around 180p to 200p a share.

There is also the prospect of an auction.

Bowleven has been linked with a number of companies in the past, including Chevron and - immediately before Dragon showed its hand - Tullow Oil. Dragon ended 3p higher

grevis2 - 18 Feb 2012 01:05 - 90 of 403

Telegraph...

Bowleven soars as Dragon mulls bid

Oil and gas explorer Bowleven saw its shares jump more than 60pc on Friday after Dragon Oil announced it was considering a takeover bid for the West Africa-focused company
Dragon, which is controlled by Dubai's state-owned Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC), declared its interest after Bowleven shares had already risen 17pc on the back of market gossip that Tullow Oil was a potential suitor.
"Dragon Oil notes the recent movement in Bowleven's share price and confirms that it is in the preliminary stages of exploring a possible offer," it said. "There can be no certainty that any offer will ultimately be made or the terms or timing on which any such offer would be made."
Dragon has until March 16 to declare whether it has a firm intention to make an offer or not.
Shares in the Aim-listed Bowleven rose as much as 82pc before settling to close at 120p, a rise of 46 on the day.
Edinburgh-based Bowleven traded as high as 398p in January last year, before a series of disappointing drilling updates on discoveries in Cameroon, West Africa, saw its value plummet.

It is also yet to develop the discoveries it has made into production, which it has said will require at least $400m (£253m) investment.

Analysts at Citigroup said: "Bowleven will require additional funding to meet its share of development [capital expenditure] over the life of its Cameroon fields.

"The sourcing of this additional finance remains challenging in the current market environment."

Bowleven's market value last night stood at £353m, up from £218m at close on Thursday.

Analysts at Jefferies said: "Bowleven is the only stock in our universe trading below our estimated core asset value. If we assume Dragon is willing to pay for Bowleven's exploration acreage, it could offer up to 221p per share, based on our risked sum of the parts."

Dragon had cash reserves of $1.5bn at the end of last year and has made clear its intention to diversify its business, which is currently focused offshore Turkmenistan. Last year it joined a project in Tunisia.

The company is listed in Ireland and London but 52pc of its shares are owned by ENOC. Dragon Oil shares rose 3 to 547p.

Most of Bowleven's biggest shareholders are institutional investors such as BlackRock, F&C Asset Management and JP Morgan.

Bowleven's chief executive, Kevin Hart, owns more than 2.5m shares in the company.


grevis2 - 18 Feb 2012 01:12 - 91 of 403

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5E8DH2IT20120217?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0


Bowleven has made a series of oil discoveries off the coast of Cameroon, none of which have to date been developed, meaning it does not have production.

Its primary oil fields are known as MHLP-7 and Sapele. While the company has a development plan for MHLP-7, its understanding of the Sapele asset is not as well advanced.

The value of any takeover approach Dragon launches will likely hinge on how it views Sapele.

"If you're Dragon you might think I'm willing to pay for MHLP-7, where we can hopefully get production up and running relatively quickly, and then I get Sapele and exploration for free," Canaccord Genuity analyst Braden Purkis said.

Should Dragon look to only pay for MHLP-7, a bid in the range of 150 pence to 160 pence would make sense, said Purkis. A 155 pence per share offer would value Bowleven at about 456 million pounds ($718.1 million).

Tullow Oil, another London-listed oil firm, was on Friday rumoured to be lining up a bid for Bowleven before Dragon made its announcement.

"Those assets (of Bowleven's) are probably a better fit for a bigger company with a stronger balance sheet like Dragon," said Aliyev.

cynic - 18 Feb 2012 08:49 - 92 of 403

many a slip etc etc, so unless already a holder, a dangerous move to buy in now

grevis2 - 18 Feb 2012 12:19 - 93 of 403

Scotsman.com
By PERRY GOURLEY
Published on Saturday 18 February 2012 00:00


MORE than £130 million was added to the value of Edinburgh-based oil explorer Bowleven yesterday ahead of a possible £600 million takeover offer for the company.


City speculation that the Scottish firm was being stalked saw heavy trading in Bowleven’s shares before Dragon Oil issued a statement confirming it was exploring an offer. Tullow Oil, another UK-listed oil firm, had been rumoured to be lining up a bid for Bowleven before Dragon made its announcement.

Dragon, which is 52 per cent owned by Dubai’s Emirates National Oil Company, is known to be keen on widening its current focus on Turkmenistan and has built up a war chest for acquisitions on the back of increased production and a higher oil price.

Bowleven, headed by chief executive Kevin Hart, has made a series of oil discoveries off the coast of Cameroon, although none have so far been developed.

The company’s main interests are the MHLP-7 oil field, where a development plan is in place, and the Sapele oil fields where progress is less advanced.

Analysts believe an offer for Bowleven could reach over 200p ,with Steven Asfour at Fox-Davies pointing out that the shares had fallen a long way from the 414p high seen last year. “One important note to remember here is that a number of large institutions backed the company during a recent fund raise at 103p, and I am sure they would want a substantial premium before giving up shares they have stayed loyal to,” he said.

Bowleven’s largest shareholders include Blackrock, F&C Asset Management and JP Morgan Asset Management. Its directors are also significant shareholders, with Hart owning 2.56 million shares – worth more than £3m at yesterday’s closing price.

grevis2 - 18 Feb 2012 12:23 - 94 of 403

Oriel Securities analyst Vugar Aliyev said an acquisition of Bowleven would represent a major strategic change for Dragon and he viewed the potential deal as neutral to slightly negative.

"If they spend $700 million on the company and then another significant portion of their cash developing it, then I would be concerned," he said.

So he thinks it would go for £1.50, it would suggest that at £2.00 that might start to stretch Dragons cash reserves....unless there is paper in the offer.


required field - 18 Feb 2012 12:26 - 95 of 403

Job to guess what is going to happen...I was surprised by the number of sells on friday...or perhaps that were limit orders going through....and it shot up only to trickle down a bit during the day....we'll see what happens on monday....

required field - 20 Feb 2012 09:15 - 96 of 403

Surprised that this has not climbed to 140p or so.....if it is going to be taken out....150p minimum or more, perhaps 180...perhaps 200 or 220p.......so 120p looks way off the mark !.

mitzy - 20 Feb 2012 09:22 - 97 of 403

I agree 140p minimum.

required field - 20 Feb 2012 09:30 - 98 of 403

Just will not climb, though it's early days...more buys than sells....I'm surprised that we are not seeing 140p now....

cynic - 20 Feb 2012 10:01 - 99 of 403

because talk of a bid, and the hype that always attaches, and the actuality of one being tables, let alone concluded, inevitably gives the prudent a chance to cash in some good profits, and perhaps buy back cheaper in due course - look at XEL!

required field - 20 Feb 2012 10:05 - 100 of 403

Going long on both.....took profits on friday....but hey !...new week....both should be much higher : WTI nearly $106 us dollars and Brent $120 plus...

Balerboy - 20 Feb 2012 12:20 - 101 of 403

think your clutching at straws rf.,.

mitzy - 20 Feb 2012 12:32 - 102 of 403

lol.

required field - 20 Feb 2012 12:51 - 103 of 403

A bid id a bid or an offer...and don't tell me that the Bowleven management are going to agree to a 118p takeover...they'll burst out laughing...it has to be much...much higher just to consider it.....

Balerboy - 20 Feb 2012 12:57 - 104 of 403

They don't have to accept anything and sit tight. sp stays where ever.,.

grevis2 - 21 Feb 2012 00:16 - 105 of 403

MARKET REPORT: Max Petroleum gushing aheadBy Geoff Foster

Last updated at 10:00 PM on 20th February 2012

Comments (0) Share
Mad Max Petroleum was the red hot speculative stock as the slick oil sector continued to blaze a trail on takeover hopes.

Also helping the bullish mood was the strong oil price, which surged to a nine-month high above $121 a barrel after Iran said it halted exports to British and French companies ahead of a European Union embargo starting on July 1.

Shares of the Kazakhstan focused oil explorer gushed 3.25p, or 29.55 per cent, to 14.25p on rumours of a possible £354m or 35p a share cash bid from the bigger Zhaikmunai (0.1p dearer at 11.4p), which is based in north-western Kazakhstan.


Max’s share price got ahead of itself in 2007 and touched 200p-plus on hopes for substantial upside in Kazakhstan. But bulls didn’t take into account how long it would take for its projects in the area to bear fruit, while the credit crunch made the funding of its projects extremely difficult.
The shares have rallied from a bombed-out 52-week low of 2.6p as more optimistic news of its operations in Kazakhstan has prompted growing speculation that a major would come along and swallow the company at an attractive low price.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum gushed 14.25p more to an all-time high of 425.25p as speculation intensified that either Exxon Mobil or Total would soon launch a knock-out cash offer for the Kurdistan focused oil company. Up for sale Cove Energy advanced a further 7.75p to 156.75p on Anadarko bid hopes.
More...FTSE CLOSE: Greek bailout hope and rising oil prices help drive market up

Cameroon-focused oil company BowLeven, which soared 62 per cent on Friday following a bid approach from Dragon Oil (16.5p better at 563.5p), touched 138p but was then hit by profit-taking to close a penny off at 119p.

Nautical Petroleum advanced 18p to 352.5p as buyers responded to a WestHouse Securities strong buy recommendation and target price of 550p. Reflecting the strengthening oil price, BP traded above £5 for the first time since the Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster. It touched 503p before closing 10.3p higher at 499.25p. Tullow Oil jumped 35p to 1601p.



Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2103890/MARKET-REPORT-Max-Petroleum-gushing-ahead.html#ixzz1myF2PrlN

ptholden - 21 Feb 2012 10:53 - 106 of 403

Market seems to have decided that 120p is about right for an official offer although duifcult to say with Nomura shorting on behalf of Dragon. No way will Blvn accept anything below 150p and I doubt below 200p.

required field - 21 Feb 2012 11:21 - 107 of 403

I agree with you...at the moment : just ridiculous sp.....

grevis2 - 22 Feb 2012 17:39 - 108 of 403

22 February 2012
16.40
Bowleven plc ("Bowleven" or the "Company")
Notification of Results

Bowleven plc will announce it half-yearly results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 on Monday 26 March 2012.
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