.

HARRYCAT: Where are you getting these figures from????

"We carry FOGL’s 75% wi in Loligo at 145p/sh risked, 2900p/sh unrisked. Drilling will likely move to Scotia, 36p/sh risked, 725p/sh"

I read different figures of 15% chance of a strike on both!!??

Two questions for Proselenes

"the lower targets of the first drill more likely oil" Please cite your source for this.

"Merchant Securities increases target to 400p" Is this target price predicted for the end of the year??

BOR AGM notes from "TheFlyingMule".......

......Good evening all. Here is my ‘summary’ of the AGM today. It’s a bit in depth but I hope it’s of some use. I do have a recording of it, which I will try to upload when I get more time but these are my thoughts on the morning’s events. I’ve reproduced my notes as best I can, though I can’t guarantee the accuracy and there are others that are far more qualified than me to comment on the technical aspects but, again, I hope it provides at least a flavour of the meeting.

An excellent day all told. I’d recommend going to the AGMs of these companies – the opportunity for access to the BOD of multi million pound companies doesn’t come along very often!

I imagine there were around 50 shareholders there (I think last year’s was 15 or so?) as well as various analysts, PR people and the BOD of course. The meeting started at 10:00 and went on for nearly an hour and a half, which left just half an hour for further questions on the sidelines before everyone was ushered out before the next corporate do commenced.

Harry Dobson (HD; Chairman) kicked things off with the resolutions and they were all duly passed unanimously with a show of hands, including amusing witterings from HD proposing himself (I’m not sure Mr. Kozel will get the same reception for the remuneration resolution at GKP’s AGM in a few weeks..!).

That wrapped up swiftly and Howard Obee (HO; CEO) then launched into the AGM presentation. This wasn’t the same presentation as is now on the website – more on that later – but he talked us through it with questions from the floor as we went along.

HD emphasised at the beginning that there would be no discussion about Stebbing. He initially said it was ‘tight’ – my first thought was ‘oh no, not another DESaster with their tight sands at Rachel’. Then I thought he meant time was tight, as in there have been delays and, finally, with a request for clarification from the floor later on, he confirmed that ‘tight’ meant there was essentially a communications blackout regarding Stebbing! Drilling continues…

Anyway, on with the show.

Darwin:

- The numbers given were for Darwin East and West. Shallow marine environment in the lower cretaceous.

- Condensate samples were shipped back to the UK. It isn’t permissible to fly the samples on commercial flights so they could either spend several hundred thousand dollars chartering an aircraft or they could sent it by ship, which they obviously have done and it took four weeks to arrive.

- The geological results were extremely close to prognosis with the top of the reservoir predicted to within one metre – not bad for rank wildcat drilling eh?! [Over the 4,800 metres, that’s an error of 0.02%!!]

- Condensate value depends on its content. They BOD would not be drawn on ‘possibilities’ but their overall enthusiasm would suggest they are confident.

- Gas Initially In Place figures were given (Min 1.88TCF, Most Likely 2.44, Max 2.88). Liquids content is subject to on-going analysis. 10 weeks from 18th June.

- The TD of the drill ended up in water bearing sands. They felt there is a possibility of more sands beneath the water but seeing as they already had a valuable condensate find, they were content to leave that for another day. [I suspect they were wary of any more cost overruns and opted for prudence]

- Delays were caused by problems with the rig itself and also due to taking a long time to drill through some of the rock formations. Extra casing needed to be set to stabilise the hole. Rank wildcatting will always be a laborious process so not unexpected imo.

- Part of the extra time to drill through the rock was due to using water based drilling mud rather than oil based mud. It’s more environmentally friendly to use water but doesn’t perform as well it seems!

- Two thirds of the $40 million cost overruns were related to the other supply costs of hiring a rig.

- We were treated to the logs of Darwin; this information, along with the seismic slides, is not in the presentation on the website. I would love to pore over them in more detail rather than craning my neck at the slides from a distance but I’m sure Gramacho (delighted to put a face to the name at last but disappointed about the lack of elbow pads!) will be able to provide some colour. Without giving too much away, HO seemed quietly confident when discussing the gas readings.

- MDT gave the Gas-condensate gradient information, which told them of the condensate.

- The source rock wasn’t penetrated. HO believes that is still below where they drilled Darwin. Geochemistry testing of the cuttings to come in the next few weeks which may help answer whether the condensate was a result of the quality of the original source rock or whether it was a function of the thermal and migration history of the hydrocarbons that were generated. That will then aid prediction of distribution of oil, gas and condensate in the region.




Rig:

- Excellent team on board the LE. Having a high spec rig is all good and well but if there aren’t the appropriate operators, it’s potential won’t be realised. Fortunately there are excellent crews on the rig!

- The rig itself is performing very well. A few days ago there were 18/19m waves and it carried on drilling.

- Environmental conditions are less harsh than expected. Originally, it was thought they would be similar to those west of the Shetlands. It seems conditions are more benign than there. This is in part due to the southern tip of South America essentially acting as a windbreak to the large weather systems that come in from the west from the Pacific and protects the Islands from the worst conditions as the fetch distance is greatly reduced. [nice to know Argentina still helping out, even if they don’t want to ]

- BOR own the rig contract. When it was asked whether there would be a fifth well in this current campaign, HO said it was a possibility but it would depend on timings as it is due to go to Scandinavia after finishing in the Falklands. [my impression was they weren’t particularly keen on drilling another well; they have enough on their plate and they don’t want to be rushed into something just for the sake of it.]



Future Campaigns:

- Appraisal of Darwin should be relatively straightforward.

- The next campaign will have “a lot more wells.” Exploration will take place alongside the
appraisals and would be at least 5 wells. Rig availability the key issue.

- Open acreage will be of interest to them eventually – hence the relatively hush-hush nature of
their communications strategy.

- 3D; both new and re-processing existing. They were absolutely delighted with the ‘superb’ data and that was what put Darwin on the map, so to speak.

- Currently tendering for 3D seismic with the aim of shooting it in the southern hemisphere summer. Currently seems to be a good availability of seismic boats.




Prospects:

- Next 3D to be shot to the north of Darwin.

- Covington is a tilted fault block to the north of Darwin but only on 2D. This is a priority. It looks uncannily similar to how Darwin did on 2D. They then got the 3D and the rest is history! HO optimistic Covington will look similar to Darwin with the 3D.

- Deeper targets of Stokes and Sullivan.

- All prospects are a similar age and, with the positive result of Darwin, reduces their risk profiles compared with six months ago.

- Burgess and Bute fan systems ‘down the slope’ in the deeper marine environment. As a rough indication, Bute could be 1 billion barrels for that sized fan.

- Prospect inventory with resource estimates to come when they re-evaluate, including other new leads.

- Darwin smallest prospect in terms of area (with 2.5TCF of gas).




Funding:

- Lots of options, especially thanks to having 100% of their acreage.

- HD was extremely confident of getting any $$$ that may be required. He was fairly tight lipped but felt with the masses of top quality data they have, they wouldn’t have any trouble getting funds when needed.




Communication Strategy:

- It was inferred the BOD weren’t working in the best interest of shareholders by being so averse to publishing detailed information. HD was reasonably unimpressed with this suggestion I think. Commercially sensitive information is the key; it’s an excellent bargaining chip and should stop a hostile takeover.

- Bulletin boards were discussed. iii called HO and said the site had had 23,000 hits leading up to Darwin results.

- HD didn’t like bulletin boards as he felt they encouraged rumours with ramping/de-ramping etc. [Though, of course, if they were to release more information, there would probably be less speculation...]

- Concerning relations with the Falklands Government, HO said they had excellent relations with them and found them to be extremely helpful as and when they required. When asked if he thought FIG may improve royalty terms to encourage development of Darwin if the condensate results weren’t so promising, he thought it unlikely seeing as the terms are already extremely favourable. He was more concerned they may shift the royalty rates up now they’ve found something!




My 2p Worth:

BOD very much in this for the long term with HD stating this will see him out until the end of his days. They do have incentives, in the form of 60-70 million shares between them.

Technically, I think they’ve done a fantastic job. Their prospect inventory looks very interesting and they are keen to tick all the boxes in a timely and appropriate fashion. They will not be coerced into publishing data just for the sake of it. [this largely related to a question regarding the condensate yield. Gramacho very kindly offered his prediction, which I’m sure he’ll come to later]

HD believes the market doesn’t understand the significance of Darwin.

On a personal note, I like to see a strong technical side to the company and I have to say I was very impressed with the technical story at BOR. They seem to be going about things in the right way, which, given time, will reward patient investors.

I would say they could work on marketing the company better. Yes, they have a long term view but a higher share price doesn’t do anyone any harm!

That’s all for now; a long but very worthwhile day.

GLA,

TFM............

Hi Guy's, A very big stock sell on FOGL at 16:35 on Friday(1,175.000 @ £0.85p)..........What does this investor know that we don't?

Great minutes of the meeting .........Well done. Not sure I am eager to buy more Border's shares though!

???????????????? 1175 shares?????????????????

No Cynic , it was actually one million and 1175 at 85p , good question Ger 18, why did that person sell?

Gerponville18, its not very clever to miss out also the 1M buy earlier in the day. A 1M buy and a 1M sell - kind of suggests someone sold 1M to another party, or it was a rollover.

You should be aware any trade reported after 16:30 is therefore a delayed reported trade, meaning it happened earlier in the day, when the trade could have been a buy or a sell - but "computer software" will report it as a sell or a buy based on the closing price of the stock at 16:30 against the price at which the trade happened, which is not shown, all you see is a "late trade" with a timestamp of past 16:30 - they do not tell you actually what time in the day the trade occurred.

This is all pretty basic stuff of the way the markets work.

Thank you very much for the reply Proselenes.

I am an engineer after all; we do not know all the "pretty basic stuff" of the financial world. Anyway, I am sure we will be toasting the success of this share on its way to many £ signs in the not too distant future........The very best Champagne of course!

i hold but with distinctly less enthusiasm some on here

Falkland Islands Holdings reduces stake in FOGL
StockMarketWire.com

Explains the weakness last week, FKL were selling. They also say no more sells now until earliest on Loligo results.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201207020700115853G

.

does that mean if Loligo turns out to be a duster they may sell their remaining 12million shares?

that could apply to anyone holding tlw or pmo or any less well funded oilies than those

cynic the wording of FKL's RNS does not instill confidence.

can't disagree, but i'm not exactly a heavy holder of fogl either

Pretty much what we know, big gas kick, results next week. Was it a gap cap on top of oil...... or more condensate/gas ? Find out soon........

http://www.pandjenergy.co.uk/


............“A strategically important exploration well being drilled to the south of the Falkland Islands is expected to complete within the next 10 days or so.

Rumours are circulating stock market boards that the rig Leiv Eiriksson has encountered hydrocarbons while drilling Stebbing for Borders & Southern. They include that a large gas kick occurred, leading to a pause in drilling operations.”.........

Business-as-Usual-for-Big-Oil-Despite-Falkland-Tensions.html

Business as Usual for Big Oil Despite Falkland Tensions

By Jen Alic | Thu, 05 July 2012 22:44 | 0

Benefit From the Latest Energy Trends and Investment Opportunities before the mainstream media and investing public are aware they even exist. The Free Oilprice.com Energy Intelligence Report gives you this and much more. Click here to find out more.

While tensions between Britain and Argentina have been rising as a natural response to the 30th anniversary of the Falkland War, oil is the primary driver of a renewed Falkland dispute that will determine the fate of tens of billions of dollars in black gold.

At the same time, while Argentine President Cristina Kirchner and British Prime Minister David Cameron are trading serious barbs over the sovereignty issue, big oil companies are largely ignoring the implications and conducting business as usual.

The Falkand Islands (Islas Malvinas) were reclaimed by the British in June 1982 after a 74-day war in response to an Argentine invasion. Argentina lost 649 troops in the war, while the UK lost 255 troops. The 30th anniversary of this war coincides with some major oil developments, which the UK is hoping to resolve by supporting the Falkland government’s holding of a referendum on its political status in 2013.

Argentina is on the losing end of this battle. Not only will the referendum favor the status quo, but Kirchner’s recent move to nationalize Argentina’s interests in Spain’s Repsol oil company has lost her any support she might have enjoyed (particularly from Spain, France and Italy) over the Falklands issue.

This is exactly what big oil is banking on, and recent months have seen some significant developments that seem to ignore the brewing tensions entirely. Two major discoveries are set to turn the Falklands into a key oil player almost overnight. The first, and less significant, is the 1.3 billion barrel discovery by Rockhopper’s Sea Lion (RKH) in the north Falklands Basin. The second is the 4.7 billion barrel prospect of Loligo, for which FOGL plans to start drilling its first well this month.

The Loligo prospect was boosted by news that came in the first week of June that Edison Spa, an Italian utility bought by France’s EDF in June, will acquire a 25% interest in northern licenses of Falkand Oil & Gas and another 12.5% interest in FOGL’s southern licenses. The significance of the Edison Spa deal is that it will provide FOGL with some much-needed financing to get things under way in Loligo. In return for the licenses, the utility company will fund FOGL’s drilling to the tune of $50 million and hand over another $40 million in cash.

The oil angle to the Falklands dispute gained momentum in 2010 when the UK authorized prospecting, provoking the ire of Argentina. The next major uptick in the ongoing crisis came in December last year, when Rockhopper revealed that its Sea Lion field held more oil than expected. This in turn led to an immediate increase in interest in the Falklands’ offshore oil prospects. The UK moved quickly to ensure the security of these discoveries by sending in naval units, prompting a harsh response from Argentina and escalating the crisis.

But the UK holds most of the cards. Not only will “Falklanders” vote to remain a self-governed overseas territory of the United Kingdom in a referendum, but Spain, Italy and France in particular have no sympathy for Argentina in the aftermath of its decision to nationalize its Repsol interests. Oil exploration is proceeding as if the dispute is resolved.

So with the oil momentum already picking up an irreversible pace, how will the sovereignty dispute be resolved? As far as the UK is concerned, it will not negotiate the issue before the United Nations unless it is asked to do so by the Falklands legislature, which is happy to hold a referendum. The results of the referendum will provide the UK with any ammunition it needs.

Argentina’s only real recourse here is military. We can expect a great deal of bluster on the issue and some high-minded rhetoric recalling British colonialism and the like in the coming weeks, particularly as plans proceed at a fast pace for exploration and drilling. But in the end, this will be toothless bluster designed largely to allow Kirchner to appease a public that has long been taught to view the Falkland Islands as an integral part of Argentina.

The UK might have been willing to decolonize the Falklands, and certainly, it has seriously entertained the notion in the past. But now that the Falkands are set to become a major oil player, the situation is very different. No one wants Argentina to step in and claim the islands with the fear of nationalization fresh on the heels of the Repsol debacle. The bottom line is that Argentina lost the Falklands over Repsol.

By. Jen Alic of Oilprice.com

If FKL were selling, why should this make FOGL shares weak. It shouldn't actually make a difference???????????

It sucks, the link that Proselenes posted doesn't work unless you register to that website & it won't let me register?????????

http://www.pandjenergy.co.uk/ HELP

Although I have great confidence in FOGL, my fear is that after the rise in anticipation for Loligo, if it turns out to be gas, the share price will fall. It happened with Darwin & that wasn't even gas,(condensate instead). I know it will still be higher than what it is now back that lower than what it is now, but still......