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DELLING, Boring Miserable Swedo Company, But is it Cheap?. (DLG)     

goldfinger - 25 Oct 2006 17:02

The answer to that I believe is...

Its going cheap at the moment and there looks to be considerable upside from its present price of circa 10p. Ive had it on the watchlist for the last 6 months and it continues to do deal after deal but nobody notices .

Plenty more room for acqusitions aswell which will see growth booming.

The company is valued at less than 15 million. By the financial year 2007/8 sales will be 40 million and profits after tax at least 4 million I reckon.

House broker Seymour Pierce have the following forecasts on the company but these I beleive will be smashed.....

To 31-Dec-06 EPS 1.00p P/E 10.0 PEG n/a EPS Growth n/a
To 31-Dec-07 EPS 1.50p P/E 6.7 PEG 0.1 EPS Growth +50%

If the present momentum in the markets goes forward this company on fundies should at least double within a year.

Heres a bit of background on the companys operations......

Delling Group is a leading supplier of marketing support services for marketing
and communication departments throughout The Nordic countries.


Delling manages all fields of graphic support in many different forms and
formats including trade fairs, exhibitions and interactive digital solutions for
the web, mobile telephone marketing solutions, motion media for flat screens,
plasma or LCD.


It also supplies IT solutions which support and increase the efficiency of both
marketing and information departments. However, its major strength is that the
Group can deliver complete turnkey solutions, tailor-made for its customers'
every need. Delling also offers outsourcing solutions that can substantially
save costs and improve efficiency.


The Group's major activities are today concentrated in the Norwegian and Swedish
markets, however, it is quickly expanding into other Nordic areas, as well as
having customers and production facilities in Eastern Europe. It also has well
respected suppliers as far afield as China and Thailand.


Delling Group has today 80 employees. It is rapidly developing its organisation
by focusing on supplying its customers with the quality they demand, delivered
on time at the right price. Central to its philosophy lies the fact that its
customers will obtain greater effects and efficiency for every pound they invest
in marketing and information. The Group has strong growth, both through further
development of existing clients and establishment of many new relationships,
together with acquiring companies that enhance and further develop our business
concept.


Delling's goal is within the course of the next two years, through both
satisfied customers and recommendations, to be the largest and most profitable
company in the field of marketing support services within the Nordic countries,
and a significant player within Eastern Europe. In October 2004, Delling was the
first Scandinavian business to be listed on the Alternative Investment Market
('AIM'), the London Stock Exchange's international market for smaller growing
companies. This has given Delling access to capital funds for the further
development of the Group.



DYOR.

goldfinger - 26 Oct 2006 11:47 - 9 of 86

UPGRADE UPGRADE UPGRADE Growth Equities And Company Research.

25/10/2006

Delling: Increased 2007 Forecast, 2008 Estimates Unveiled - Buy at 10p

Key Data
EPIC DLG
Share price 10p
Spread 9.5p-10.5p

NMS 15,000
Market cap. 1.51 million pounds
12 month range 8.75p-15p
Shares in Issue 151 million pounds
Net Debt 2 million pounds
Market AIM
Website www.dellinggroup.com
Sector Media
Contact Aksel Bratvedt
0207 484 5663

Over the past year AIM-listed Scandinavian based, marketing services group, Delling, has completed four acquisitions, a 5.3 million pounds placing and has taken steps to improve margins within the business. The company has also started to deliver clear organic growth that is sustainable. We believe that our forecasts for the group for 2007 are too low by a material order and feel confident of introducing new forecasts for 2008. It would appear the City has not totally forgiven Delling for a profits warning more than a year ago, and it has failed to take on board the progress made since that event and the profits potential of the group. Despite this, we believe the shares are materially undervalued and rate the shares as a buy at 10p with a new 12 month price target of 35p.

Delling is a market support services company. It provides out-sourced services to the marketing department 'back offices' of companies predominantly operating in Scandinavia. Established under the name Depicta in 1998, the company changed its name whilst embarking on its current strategy of aggressive bolt-on acquisitions to complement its own organic growth in March 2004. It listed on AIM in the autumn of that year, and now has an impressive client list of over 300 companies, including such giants as Statoil, Norsk HydroABB, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Ericsson. It is a pioneer in the application of the latest IT technology in the creation and efficient management of new and developing marketing channels.

In June of 2006, the company undertook a 5.3 million pounds fund-raising at 8p, and used this finance to handle its balance sheet problems, which had clearly been a concern of both investors and potential customers. The company now has net debt of 2 million pounds. However, if our forecasts are reached, it is possible that banks would lend it up to 20 million pounds to support further acquisitions. The purchases this year have been funded by a cash and shares mix, which typically involves Delling paying 5 times historic pre-tax profits. In a fragmented Scandinavian market, Delling feels it has a long list of profitable, privately owned target companies which can be bought on similar terms.

In the past three months Delling has made three acquisitions. On 22nd August, it paid 1.5 million pounds (5.6 times pre-tax profits) to buy Eckerud, which has annual sales of 4.4 million pounds. On 31st August, it bought Printcenter, which has annual sales of 1 million pounds for 5 times profits, or 370,000 pounds. And on 16th October, it paid 1.18 million pounds (5 times profits) for SEG, which has annual sales of 3.5 million pounds. These three deals alone add 9 million pounds to annualised sales, before cross-selling.

Our assumption is that the group will achieve a pre-tax margin of c10% in 2007, but once the synergy between the acquired companies is realised the margin will increase to 12% by 2008. We also assume (in our 2008 numbers) that another 5 million pounds of sales will be generated via acquisition. However, there is scope for Delling to significantly exceed our forecasts in that respect. The tax charge will due to historic losses remain at 0% in 2006 and 2007 but, as those losses are exhausted, it should increase to 10% in 2008 and will remain at 20% thereafter.

We regard the risks to our forecasts as being on the upside since Delling has the appetite, balance sheet strength and opportunities to accelerate its acquisition programme. Our 12 month target prices would put the stock on a prospective price earnings ratio of 12, which for a company growing its earnings and sales at this rate is not demanding. At 10p we rate the shares as a buy with a one-year target of 35p.



goldfinger - 26 Oct 2006 12:28 - 10 of 86

So they are forecasting a 250% SP gain within a year and at the same time making out this could be conservative.............................. WOW.

goldfinger - 26 Oct 2006 15:12 - 11 of 86

Well worth looking at this investor presentation from earlier this month.....

http://www.dellinggroup.com/media/Investorpresentation.pdf

goldfinger - 27 Oct 2006 00:59 - 12 of 86

A good day for this one hoping for more tomorrow, dont forget target price within 12 months a whoping 35p.

goldfinger - 27 Oct 2006 08:33 - 13 of 86

A nice big buy already gone in here.

You can get within the spread.

goldfinger - 27 Oct 2006 10:23 - 14 of 86

MM games at the moment, no problem 35p says I can wait.

goldfinger - 27 Oct 2006 11:52 - 15 of 86

Spread narrowed, buyers still coming in. Looks ready to tick up.

goldfinger - 27 Oct 2006 12:18 - 16 of 86

September Broker report BUY.

The current trading statement points to record volumes. The groups
business model is to provide outsourced marketing services to the
marketing departments of major corporations. The increase in revenue
represents the build up of contracts won by the group over the last 18
months, together with acquisitions. In the first half, further contact wins
have been announced, including McDonalds and Northface in Norway,
and Bristol Myers Squibb group across the Nordic region. We estimate
that underlying organic revenue growth is running at 40%.
The outsourcing of printing services, where Delling acts as a project
manager, earns lower margins than production services, where Delling
adds value through content design and pre-production services. The
group is also seeing an increase in screen based advertising systems and
services, where it earns higher consulting margins. The provision of lower
margin print services is often a precursor to gaining higher margin
business.
Our revenue estimate for the year has been increased from 11m to
12m, but at this point we keep our pre-tax profit estimate of 1m
unchanged. Last week, the group agreed a tranche of 800,000 bank
finance with a Scandinavian bank, illustrating the improved balance sheet
status. We expect Delling to continue to make bolt on acquisitions
financed by bank debt, most likely in the Nordic region where its activities
are based.
The stock is on a December 2006 rating of 10x falling to 6.7x next year. If
business momentum continues, a re-rating should push the stock higher
as 2007 comes into focus. Remains as BUY.

http://www.dellinggroup.com/media/research_alert-BUY_(18Sep06).pdf

mickeyskint - 27 Oct 2006 12:51 - 18 of 86

GF

Sorry for the hi-jack. I know you're not a fan but have a look at GMC. I think it could be another SIN. Complete change in direction and the buyers are loving it.

Going to tread water on DLG but yes it is under valued.

MS

goldfinger - 27 Oct 2006 14:49 - 19 of 86

Yup mickey was alerted to it by Pete Hippy (sin thread) last night on the Finfoex B/Board.

What I wont to know though is if they are selling the gaming business off, how will this affect Earning per share.

The company at present have assets galore but Im not sure what or how the company should be valued.

That last statement looks like EPS are bombing, but take that away and whats left?.

swseun - 30 Oct 2006 11:42 - 20 of 86

From other thread, any thought?

robbiepaul - 30 Oct'06 - 11:37 - 801 of 801


Delling being discussed on Trading Places again.

Chartist says resistance is broken and they are looking at 15p short term.


Looking good.

RP.

goldfinger - 30 Oct 2006 11:56 - 21 of 86

Good news then, looks like its going to tick up anytime fingers crossed.

goldfinger - 30 Oct 2006 13:04 - 22 of 86

Ticking up now.

goldfinger - 01 Nov 2006 11:38 - 23 of 86

Inching its way ahead.

swseun - 01 Nov 2006 11:39 - 24 of 86

expecting any profit taking which may pull back price?

goldfinger - 01 Nov 2006 11:42 - 25 of 86

Well looks to be the same seller present each day selling into strength.

Probably RAB Capital, but its in there interest that in still continues to rise.

swseun - 01 Nov 2006 12:00 - 26 of 86

selling could pull 1 to 1.5p back each time. but not a big deal to long term investor like me.

goldfinger - 01 Nov 2006 12:45 - 27 of 86

Ticked up again. These boring companies can make soom real fine returns for you.

swseun - 01 Nov 2006 12:48 - 28 of 86

yes, just bought 20,000 @12.75, nice pick up!
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