news anytime.poss 2.30.dyor

I missed him Harry

Indications are that PANR are to be effected by severe delays in Texas with on going technical problems for over 3 months. As this as now been established. Market traers now to reduce their holdings to 20p for PANR.

another duster

Drill Rig on site this Thursday, drill expected to last 4 days.
Will we all know details on the well Monday next week.

Drilling has started, should be completed Friday 15th August.

can't wait

This has just come in as an e.mail. Make of it what you will!
"With 45 days on the clock the market was itching for news from Pantheon and today the company threw us a small fish. The VOBM#1 well has encountered a potential reservoir in the Eagleford/Woodbine sandstone and the company has decided to undertake a flow-test and have completed and cased the well.

A new, lighter and cheaper rig will be brought in for this and will be on site within 10-14 days. Timing here will be crucial and I dont expect the company to hurry the process, expect something in 3/4 weeks. What can one read into this is the big question, clearly it is very good news that a potential reservoir has been identified and the company are prepared to spend more dollars to test, but I suppose the key is, will it flow? The fact is that you can’t determine permeability by electric log and so a proper flow test will be needed. However the other key point is that the company would be unlikely to spend another million bucks if they weren’t ‘pretty damn encouraged’. Another interesting point is that when engineering the well, the drill team went to a larger casing in case they needed to complete the well horizontally, the fact that they have decided to take what they have through the vertical route is extremely positive in my view. The well has found the base of the Austin Chalk with gas shows and the top of the Eagleford exactly where they predicted which also inspires confidence.

Having completed this well the rig has already spudded the second well in the programme which is VOS#1, targeting not only the Eagleford/Woodbine sandstone but also the Austin Chalk gas which incidentally proved gas shows on the way down on VOBM#1.

Pantheon shares are up 7% as I write which is probably fair, if not a touch parsimonious. The company are saying ‘so far, so good’ which is a reasonable way of putting it. It looks like they have found a very decent reservoir but if it doesnt flow it might be plan B and the Austin Chalk which is not a bad backstop. If however it did flow, then it is bonanza time and that is before we know about the second well, although one can rarely predict market movements this would be one of the best and most profitable discoveries I have ever seen. I would conservatively expect the price to double on that supposition with more if VOS#1 were to come in."
I am now in profit. Do I cut and run. Sell half. Or wait for further news. Just another of life's little question marks.

Bought some @ 86.70p

spread 86.50p ( 86.25/86.75p )

Should today bounce back from the large fall recently, there is plenty of action on the order book and slowly is getting stronger. The starting drop today was a capitulation point.

The bounce is on and strong

84.50p - 0.25p

After the early marked down is now one of the best on the oil sector

on a spread of 84 v 85p
DEPTH on the order book is 31 v 24

From 5th Sept:

StockMarketWire.com
Pantheon Resources has confirmed the cessation of drilling operations at the VOBM#2 well and provided an update on the fracture stimulation remediation process at VOS#1 well.

"We have experienced a long list of individual challenges in the drilling of the VOBM#2 well, which has delayed the announcement of results," said CEO Jay Cheatham in a statement.

"The decision to try horizontal drilling with our second Polk County well, which we hoped would enhance per-well recovery rates, has not worked out as we expected and that technique will not be repeated.

"This was the first horizontal well ever drilled into this formation regionally and the abrasiveness of the hard sandstone was unexpected.

"We know that the wells can be drilled quickly and cost effectively vertically, as evidenced in our VOBM1 success nearby, so it makes obvious sense to learn from experience and revert to vertical drilling.

"The frac on VOS#1 has meanwhile confirmed the well as a solid commercial discovery, despite the variable permeability of the reservoir and the blockage encountered in initial drilling. Whilst maximum flow rates did not increase significantly post frac, analysis of the flow test data to date suggests that those rates should be sustainable and increase ultimate reserve recovery.

"The good news is that both the VOS#1 and VOBM#2 wells have encountered significant hydrocarbons in their objective horizons, exactly where we expected to find them, confirming the experience of all three of our initial wells.

"In all three cases the results are consistent with our original estimates of the likely recoverable Eagle Ford reserves and I expect all three wells to be commercial producers.

"Our priority now is to press on with the next two wells in our programme as quickly as possible, so that we can complete the delineation of what we have found in both Tyler and Polk County and move towards production at the earliest opportunity, optimising recovery rates on a field-wide basis."

Share price has halved in just two months and continues to fall on the back of the RNS from 5th Sept, though agree that somewhere around the 80p level offers some support.

88.50p +3.75 (+4.42%)

Today's marked down to once again last Friday's low, gave plenty of inspiration on the Charting front>>>>>> Double bottom

This gyrations are engineered by the order book with sudden drops and bounce bacK to the level of earlier, but this afternoon as the oil price recovered some of the earlier loses, PANR went further and finished well up on the day. though the UT was the bid price.

Target 193p

Pantheon pins hopes on third well at Polk County - 10:14 13 Sep 2016
The VOBM3 well will be sunk to a depth of 14,250 feet into the Eagle Ford sandstone over 45-50 days.

Pantheon Resources Plc (LON:PANR) told investors on Tuesday drilling had begun on a third well on its acreage in Polk County, Texas.

The VOBM3 well will be sunk to a depth of 14,250 feet into the Eagle Ford sandstone over 45-50 days.

Two earlier wells in the area encountered significant oil and gas (mainly gas).

But both had issues. The first - the VOS1 well - saw fracking completed and delivered a flow rate of around 920 barrels of oil equivalent a year, comprising 5,500 mcf of gas.

The second, which was to be a horizontal well, had to be abandoned after the sandstone proved too resilient, and there was a series of equipment failures.

This prompted the firm to return to drilling conventional vertical wells.

The failure of the second horizontal led to a brutal mark-down of shares in Pantheon last week, but analysts said the sell-off had been overdone.

Reinstating a ‘buy’ stance and 193p price target, WH Ireland analyst Brendon Long said shares had been ‘oversold’.

“Did we get ahead of ourselves in our valuation? Yes, because we assumed that the company would not run into drilling or operational challenges.

“We have now included an 85% chance of success for all drilling operations and believe that with statistical history there is scope to move that upwards."

The pros and cons of so-called fracking to recover hydrocarbons from the shale rock have been well documented in recent years.

It involves drilling a well and pumping down a water and chemical mixture at high pressure to release gas. It can be done vertically but is much more common horizontally. Environmental campaigners believe the technique is damaging, while others see it as an economic way to get to untapped resources.

Pantheon shares today she 3.67% to 85.25p.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/165807/pantheon-plc-pins-hopes-on-third-well-at-polk-county-165807.html

A good post from "scot126"........

Hi All - right, I'm getting a wee bit annoyed with some of the drivel being posted here. I realise we're all smarting from the reversal, both operational and in market cap terms but please get a grip. If you want to have a whinge, fine, go for it but label it as such. Here are a few facts:

1) TS - you should be ashamed of yourself. What's this utter sh^te you're peddling? 40 years, 160 wells, tucking the shares away....utter hogswash. Until the BoD announce to shareholders that they're thinking of changing the whole strategy of our company you have absolutely no basis in fact to contribute the paragraph you posted earlier this evening. When in the wide, wide world of sports (Blazing Saddles) did Jay ever suggest we were going to be an operator in any size other than minuscule? Here's another fact - how much money did the company raise in March? Do you even know the answer to this? $30m is the answer and the extra 8% PANR bought in Polk together with PANR's share of VOBM#2....let's say we're down to $20m. With me so far?

2) Mortie1's post about the potential cost of a treatment plant for the JV in Polk is stomach-churningly awful, an outright lie. Ask the company as I did....then go online and check out the veracity of the estimate, or better yet phone up a services company that operates or sells these pieces of modular kit. The gross cost to the JV is likely to be in the order of $2m not $135m, and maybe not even as much as $2m (according to my investigations). NB these are my investigations so I cannot be categoric....but I can be categoric on the order of magnitude on the cost. Make sense?

3) Ok, we're now going to be vertical drillers, fine. For what it's worth, I still think giving the horizontal a go was the right thing to do. Horizontal drilling techniques have moved on significantly in the last 20 years and it was worth a bash, it didn't work, we move on. (Yes, I'll discuss the elephant in the room, IR, later on). Let's say a horizontal well would have drained the equivalent of 2.5 - 3 vanilla vertical wells. I think it's griff/yoghurt who's seeing the consequences of this clearly (forgive me if I've got this wrong), the return to vertical drilling has only affected the npv calculation per well, ie. the capital cost up front and PERHAPS the speed of extraction and thus cashflow, but the total amount of hydrocarbons recoverable for that same patch of earth has not changed one iota.

4) Impact of this on future owner of the acreage? They'll attempt to ascribe an npv per well to the acreage (amongst many other metrics). Cost of a horizontal c.$7-8m versus, say, 3x a vertical cost = 3x$4m so $12m to drain the same area. Ok, our vertical wells may now payback in a year or 13 months v's 7 months on a horizontal.....so in turn Jay might choose to reflect that a potential buyer might pay $9 per barrel boe in the ground v's $10 if horizontal drilling had worked...big deal, it's de minimis or rather should be for current equity holders at time of writing. We haven't even scoped out the geology yet, nor had a well flowing for six months to even begin to tackle the question of depletion rates!!!!! And while I'm discussing the eventual sale strategy to an owner/operator, for God's sake TS and a few others, we haven't even scoped out the potential size of Polk never mind Tyler yet. Who in their right mind would buy out the JV at this stage in the exercise....and equally importantly, who in their right mind would put the JV up for sale without at least attempting to firm up exactly how much oil and gas exists under our acreage at 14,000 - 15,000 odd feet? The share price goes down and suddenly we put the company up for sale? Jeepers, words fail me. If any shareholders don't understand this, may I respectfully suggest they do some reading or better yet, sell out and buy a managed fund.....but at the very least stop posting such piffle.

5) $20m on balance sheet minus central costs, minus treatment plant for Polk......we've got enough for, say, our share of another 7-8 vertical drills. And that's without the cashflow from Polk to come at the very back end of this year, or maybe the start of 2017. I offer no categorical statement (unlike some lunatics on here) but the large balance of probabilities is that PANR will not need to tap the equity markets again. Our existing cash plus cashflow from Polk should be more than enough to carry out the scoping drilling plan. Where are all the posters who were talking about getting unfairly diluted in Q4 '15 and Q1 '16? The fundraise was for exactly this strategy - the BoD are carrying out that strategy until we shareholders are informed otherwise.

6) Vision's liquidity - I cannot believe either the stupidity or downright malfeasance contained in some posts stating as a categorical fact that Vision's ability to contribute its share of JV costs may be compromised. Let's look at the evidence for such spurious claims. The fact that we loaned Vision money to pay for the VOS#1 frack or that we bought an extra 8% of Polk? Does anyone reading this know definitively the ownership structure of Vision? I sure as hell don't...by all means if anyone has the written evidence of Vision's structure and balance sheet and the personal liquidity of all the individual partners, please ship them my way. Maybe Vision thought as marmaris did (see below), that remediating VOS#1 wasn't worth the hassle, that it was commercial anyway but our BoD decided to go ahead and get it done? Might that be a cause of the inter-JV loan? Whomever within Vision sold their share of Polk might have had a family crisis, or the potential to invest in a 100 bagger v's the potential 20 bagger that Jay believes he's on to with Pantheon. We DON'T KNOW. Who amongst you may have debt on your personal or company balance sheet because it's tax efficient to do so, not because you couldn't be debt-free in one transfer of cash? Ok, bit of a stretch but you get the point, WE DON'T KNOW and until they can't pay up or get to a stage where our leases are potentially compromised due to lack of operational activity, then this speculation is hogwash.

7)) Tyler - I'd argue this is the woolly mammoth in the room v's the elephant in the room which is IR.....trying to make some of you smile just a little bit after a few tough days in the market. I'm not for one second saying this is a slam dunk but at least permit yourself to debate the potential of this area. LP2 is 4-5 odd miles from VOS#1 and the next step out, VOS#2, is a further 4-5 miles from VOS#1. And we're told VOS#2 is in the region of the central location to the reservoir. For those who haven't seen a map or presentation on Tyler, imagine LP2 was a well drilled (in 2005, correct?) right on the boundary rope of a cricket field. VOS#1 (with its noteworthy net pay of 270 feet v's average of c.30 feet in Double A Wells...albeit partially blocked but still COMMERCIAL) is situated at the inner boundary rope defining where a certain number of the fielders must field in the first 10 overs of a one day game (forgive me if I'm butchering the rules and thus the analogy here, I'm Scottish, we don't play cricket). VOS#2 is intended to be drilled around or about the batting/bowling pitch....with me so far? So we're looking at a POTENTIAL field measuring 20 miles in diameter.....and what did Jay say at the AGM? We know it's certainly a mile wide and we have reasons to believe it could be 2, 3, 4 miles wide according to the studies and the seismic. Everyone can do the maths on this.....go ahead and then compare it with Double A which is c.6 square miles, that's right 6 square miles.

Ok, the above constitutes a few corrections to some of the drivel posted recently, a few facts and a paragraph discussing the POTENTIAL of Tyler. Let's now have a look at the events of the last few days since the RNS.

a) My PERSONAL view is that there is a legitimate debate to be had about the materiality of the delay at VOBM#2 and what could have/should have been transmitted to the market. If I felt the BoD were cheating, chiselling fraudsters I'd call them out publicly, help arrange an alternative BoD and throw them over. But look at your latest Annual Report....they're not the typical sponger directors who suck AIM companies dry with their salaries. No, the structure is such that any life-changing money is to be made via equity performance, straight and simple. We're all feeling a bit b^ggered by the VOBM#2 delay and the oft-repeated answer, "If we had anything of a material nature to announce, we'd do so, etc, etc." People like esmeralda could legitimately accuse me of naivety (oh, and thanks to the individual who accused me privately of operating in a cabal with Yost Capital.....I didn't know whether to laugh or laugh some more, so I just deleted it) and I'll take that one on the chin. Each shareholder should decide for themselves the degree to which management credibility has been tarnished or had a spotlight placed over it where previously there was none........but really, £100m worth of a credibility hit???? Personal view there.

b) VOBM#2 - refer paragraph 3 above. We've lost some dough undertaking the horizontal part of that well and definitely lost some time, no question. BUT, look at the picture on the top left hand of the company's picture gallery on the website. Looks like they're flaring something rather flammable? The JV is 3 for 3 on identifying and locating hydrocarbons.....and 1.5 for 3 in the robustness of those selfsame wells. So the horizontal experiment cost us $3m and 3-6 months......what portion of the £100m market cap decrease do you ascribe to that? Again, that's for everyone to decide....and naturally begs the question that the market cap 2 Fridays ago was irrationally exuberant but you see the question I'm posing.

c) VOS#1 frack didn't work out as hoped for/expected. I'm looking to Jay to educate me on this one, it's beyond my knowledge. But let me give a nod to Marmaris who, back in January remember, noted the blockage in VOS#1 and gave his opinion that the lessons on appropriate mud weights should be learnt, that the well still looked decent to him in terms of commerciality and the JV should just move on. Instead, we got a frack remediation which led to a 30% uplift v's the 100-200% uplift anticipated. I understand we're going to have a Malcy interview at some point when Jay is over.....I'll be looking to Jay to answer this one head on. However I have a firm correction for Marmaris, who I fear has himself misled readers (easily done, eh?!) - I received a categoric reply that a work over rig has NOT "been sitting beside VOS#1 since January at a day rate of $4k". That, Maramris, is utter sh^te and I'd be really grateful if you would label your future contributions (which I generally love reading as I learn something most times) with fact/personal view/speculation/musings/sounding off, etc, etc. Yip, happy to admit management credibility has taken a bash on the remedial frack issue but how much? I don't know enough about this part of the RNS so I'm looking to become better informed before attempting to ascribe a value to this particular operational reversal. But remember, it's still COMMERCIAL :)

d) Hooking up Polk to allow cashflow. I'm fairly at ease with this as the delay in so doing has seen the Henry Hub price move from $1.70 to $2.80 and oil move from mid-30's to mid-40's. Yes, it would be reassuring to hear a proposed time schedule on this piece of the strategy but for those of us who try to follow the movements on the balance sheet, it's not a massive deal.....for now anyway. Certainly worth keeping an eye on however if we detect any further slippage.

e) Multi-rig strategy - I suspect that we'll hear far more about this once we have the result of VOS#2 as success in that drill will be a company-changer IMHO. Yip, we may hear more about a second rig before then but I'm fairly comfortable about this...for now. It feels like Vision has a bit to digest and to finesse their drilling instructions and I'd rather they didn't rush but got things right with the next two wells....but I fully accept we've lost some time on the schedule outlined at the AGM and that some shareholders would like an acceleration to a multi-rig programme sooner rather than later.

So where does all that leave me? Personal view: I've digested the RNS to the best of my ability and where I have questions, I intend to pose them. I would urge others to do the same instead of whinging and misdirecting people. And if you choose not to engage with your BoD, at least put a bloody question mark at the end of your sentences to show you're not speaking with factual knowledge....please stop polluting what was a rather informative bb, please, please!!

I've then applied a discount due to the debatable IR (I'm not accusing anyone on the bb or within the company, simply saying that there's a debate to be had), a discount for the $3m of "lost" funds on VOBM#2, a discount for the time slippage (3-4 months slippage?) and a discount for the shareholder structure as it is my opinion this retail-owned company has led to an exaggerated negative reaction to last Monday's RNS and thus I'm not reading the mood of my fellow shareholders as well as I would like.

Against these discounts, I value the Woodbine at 40p per share, I now know we hit hydrocarbons at VOBM#2, and I now have a better feel thanks to Jay's audio file for the true POTENTIAL of Tyler. This POTENTIAL IS VAST, make no mistake, vast. But it is for each individual shareholder to make those calls. If you no longer trust management at all or feel that the geological understanding of the JV has been categorically disproved then you really ought to sell and move on. If you feel as I do that the BoD has a bit to learn about IR but that, at heart, they're honest men and totally aligned financially with fellow shareholders.....that the odds of hitting hydrocarbons in 3 out of 3 drills by mistake is rather high, and where the optionality of Tyler is worth paying under a £ v's the potential reward....then you do as I have done today and yesterday and that is buy PANR at these levels and wonder to yourself whether this could be an absolute steal of a price.

Sorry for the length of this post - I couldn't hold it in any longer! And try to keep the replies polite as it seems to me that most people on this board dislike the rudeness and apply a rudeness discount even if the poster has a brain the size of Bournemouth.
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edit - had to delete the box after MAM change of HTML

Some bounce from the lows and PANR the best for the last couple days

is having up and down on the trend of the last few days

107.50 Change: +6.00 (+5.91%)

Very strong start of the day as the order book was very strong with Auction taking place after STFL on the order book went very strong to 108p on the bid a few second later went down 106.50p now holding at that price.

Auction: a few small trades were place over the offer price

113p +11.50 (+11.33%)

Well, well the bounce was strong today, but it goes with the "candlestick" and one can see getting larger everyday

GSA Capital and YOST have still got short positions on PANR
so if closing them, then the share price certainly would go places

29 November 2016

Pantheon Resources plc

Operational Update

Pantheon Resources plc ("Pantheon" or the "Company"), the AIM-quoted oil and gas exploration and development company with a working interest (of 50%-58%) in several conventional projects located in Tyler and Polk Counties, onshore East Texas, today announces the following statement:

Jay Cheatham, CEO, will be in London this week meeting with investors, and during those meetings will be discussing the following information:

Update on VOBM#3, Polk County, East Texas

Flow testing operations on VOBM#3 are ongoing. Data received to date is not yet conclusive and is indicative of a well continuing to clean up. On a 10/64ths choke, the flowing tubing pressure ("FTP") ranged from 4,000 to 5,900 psi. Natural gas flow rates ranged from 1,500 to 3,000 mcfpd and the oil (51 degree API) flow rate ranged from 24 to 240 bopd, equivalent to 274 to 740 boepd. At the end of the latest testing period the FTP was increasing. By comparison, a 12/64ths choke, which was used to flow test the VOBM#1 well, has a surface area that is over 40% larger than that of the 10/64ths choke used on this well.

The operator chose to perform a single stage fracture stimulation procedure on the well in order to emulate the possible benefits of horizontal drilling. To date, less than 60% of the fracture stimulation fluid has been recovered which may be a contributor to the variability in flow results to date.
Given the variability in flow data, it is impossible at this early stage to make an accurate prediction of the well's ultimate potential, however based on the data received to date management believe that the well will be a commercial producer. We expect flow rates to stabilize going forward. Reinterpretation and analysis of 3D seismic information following logging data from this well, suggests that VOBM#3 is located near the edge of the reservoir, accounting for the differences to the excellent flow test data from the VOBM#1 well, located circa one mile away, and which appears to be more centrally located within the mini basin. Whilst at an early stage, results to date support management plans for the contracting of the preferred gas processing option, which targets first production revenues in Spring 2017. Further updates on this process will be made when appropriate.

Flow testing will continue, and results will be announced once flow rates have stabilized and testing operations are completed.

Update on VOBM#4, Tyler County, East Texas

Drilling continues at approximately 12,000 feet vertical depth, on schedule and on budget. A further update will be provided at the Company's AGM.


Jay Cheatham, CEO, said:

"Today's announcement has been made earlier than would normally be the case, however with investor meetings scheduled it is necessary to issue a cleansing statement ensuring that information is available to all investors equally. Usually an announcement would only be made after testing is complete. An accurate assessment of the well can only be made once testing operations are complete."

"Analog wells in the Double A Wells field, with similar flowing tubing pressures during testing have been good wells. It is well documented that individual well performance of Double A Wells field wells showed variance, dependent upon their respective location within the reservoir, with better quality sands typically located closer to the centre of the basin. This is consistent with the experience of our drilling and analysis to date. Based on the early results to date, our assessment of the potential of our acreage is undiminished."