Floated in may '08 at a share price of 525p. Shares in issue Dec '08 717,160,000.
Based in Mexico & listed on the LSE FTSE 250 index. (FTSE100 March '09)
Miner of Gold, silver, Zinc & Lead in Mexico
Produces approx 3m Oz silver, 280k Oz gold, 20k tons Zinc, 17k tons lead p.a.(2008)
Fresnillo has three producing mines, all of them in Mexico - Fresnillo, Ci�nega and Herradura; two advanced development projects - Fresnillo II, Soledad & Dipolos; and three exploration prospects - San Juan, San Julian, Orysivo, as well as a number of other long term exploration prospects and, in total, has mining concessions covering approximately 1.3 million hectares in Mexico.
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In this week's Shares Mag, Simon Griffin pretty much echoes the chart analysis as per my post #6. He is optimistic that silver will prove to be a good investment in 2009, as long as the critical chart support ($10.20) level holds & then breaks the $11.65 resistance level. Part of his theory is that the gap between the gold & silver price is unusually high. Given that the gold price is likely to increase this year, he predicts that silver will close the gap upwards.

"Fresbal Investments Ltd. ('Fresbal'), a subsidiary of Fresnillo plc, today announces that it received notice on 1 February 2009 from MAG Silver Corp (TSX: MAG, AMEX: MVG) ('MAG Silver') that its Independent Committee had instructed its independent valuator to suspend all work on the formal valuation being prepared in connection with Fresbal's offer for MAG Silver.

On 1 December 2008, Fresbal announced its intention to make a formal offer to MAG Silver shareholders and requested that a valuation be prepared, pursuant to applicable Canadian law. Fresbal has complied with its obligations under applicable securities laws in connection with the preparation of the valuation and has provided the independent valuator with all relevant information. Fresbal is disappointed with what it views as an inappropriate delaying tactic by MAG Silver.

Fresbal has asked staff of the Ontario Securities Commission to review the MAG Silver Independent Committee's decision to suspend work on the valuation. Fresbal intends to take the necessary steps to enable MAG Silver shareholders to receive the offer in compliance with all laws as soon as practicable, subject to the relevant conditions as outlined in the announcement dated 1 December 2008."

The stock is certainly firing on all cylinders at the mo.,up a further 23p so far today.
Wish I had got in at 1. !!

up by some 60% in the last month,and still well short of its flotation price.
Also,the outlook looks rosy for precious metals,
must still be a good run ahead

There cannot be many stocks that have had a run like fresnillo.
Up from 100 to 428 in a matter of a few months

Awesome & no major profit taking yet.
Difficult to set a target price , but I wonder if 500/550p is going to be a resistance level? Am happy to hold until that time, but with gold & silver prices set to increase throughout 2009 (?) I may be tempted to hang on if it breaks out further up.

The way things are at the moment,precious metals are being held up as one of the few places left to put your dosh.
It says volumes that it is no longer safe in the bank,

Broker very bullish here...

Fresnillo PLC

FORECASTS WI
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Canaccord Adams
19-12-08 BUY 33.80 13.52 27.04 6.76

2008 2009
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 182.53 24.03 9.44 138.51 18.87 6.93
1 Month Change 182.53 -9.77 -4.08 138.51 -8.17 0.17
3 Month Change -17.28 0.92 -0.06 86.16 6.92 2.81


GROWTH
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)
Norm. EPS -25.82% 131.48% -21.47%
DPS % % -26.59%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)

EBITDA 130.94m 278.09m 223.50m
EBIT 106.10m m m
Dividend Yield % 2.16% 1.59%
Dividend Cover x 2.55x 2.72x
PER 42.05x 18.16x 23.13x
PEG -1.63f 0.14f -1.08f
Net Asset Value PS 25.01p p p

Added a few more.

Speculation is that positive news out very soon.

From pro Tipster Zak Mir this morning..



Zak Mir



Reged: 28/06/07
Posts: 649
Re: FRESNILLO (FRES) - Largest Primary Silver Producer
#439934 - 19/02/09 08:22 AM



I am always about. I think the easiest thing to say is that while above the initial September high of 410p, we should head to the all time high of 575p, off the back of the latest 50/200 day MA golden cross.

MoneyAM
"Silver producer Fresnillo saw full year revenue rise 6.9% to $839.6m.

The firm's silver procution in the year to the end of December was a record 34.8 million ounces and it also produced 264,000 ounces of gold.

Operating profit increased 26.3% to $283.6m and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation rose 21.7% to $337.4m.

Looking ahead at 2009, the firm said it recognised that it would be affected by the same factors as the industry as a whole and its focus will be on critical capex and intermediate and advanced exploration projects, ensuring that its short- to medium-term targets are met. "

Any idea how their figures stack up against others in the sector?

Solid CP, very solid but the problem I see here is the transfer over to HOC.

With the drop in SP today and HOC becoming dearer we may at sometime see a reversal back to FRES.

One to watch out for I reckon.

LONDON (Reuters) - London-listed Mexican miner Fresnillo (FRES.L) posted a worse-than-expected 10.8 percent fall in 2008 attributable profit, hit by foreign exchange losses and higher taxes, and said 2009 output would be mostly flat.

Shares in Fresnillo, the world's biggest primary silver producer, fell 5.6 percent to 389.75 pence by 09:05 a.m. British time on Monday, compared with a 2.4 percent rise in the UK mining index .FTNMX1770.

The shares have jumped 70 percent so far this year on the back of a rebound in silver prices.

"Overall slightly disappointing numbers, with adjusted EPS coming in 23 percent below Cazenove estimates and even further below consensus, primarily due to a much higher than expected tax charge," Cazenove said in a note.

"Valuation and precious metal exposure continues to look supportive so we would buy into any weakness today."

Fresnillo, a unit of Mexico's Penoles (PENOLES.MX), said attributable net profit fell to $127.95 million from $143.5 million in 2007, while four analysts surveyed by Reuters Estimates had expected $241 million (166 million pounds).

The full-year result was in sharp contrast to a 56 percent jump in first-half profit, but Chief Financial Officer Mario Arreguin said sharp devaluations of both the British pound and the Mexican peso late in the year impacted the bottom line.

Frenillo posted a foreign exchange loss of $14.6 million while tax charges jumped 53 percent.

VOLATILE PRICES
The silver price also took a dive in the second half, tumbling by half from a peak in March to a low in October.

Spot silver has since rebounded by a quarter to trade at $14.18 per ounce on Monday, but Fresnillo Chief Executive Jaime Lomelin said he expected prices would probably stagnate this year.
"Whilst we remain positive on the long-term evolution of precious metals prices, we expect the global slowdown to reduce overall demand for precious metals in 2009," the firm said.

Fresnillo said on January 14 that it planned to trim capital expenditure this year by about 8 percent due to weak markets and Lomelin said there had been no change to the plans.

A strong balance sheet with $212 million in cash and no debt meant the firm had scope for acquisitions, but it planned to focus on developing its own projects, he added.

"Our objective first is to consolidate districts. We're not interested in buying properties that are far away from where we are operating, that would dilute our exploration efforts," he told a conference call.

He said the company would press on with its $179 million cash bid for the 80.2 percent of MAG Silver (MAG.TO) (MVG.A) it does not already own.

Lomelin said he expected Canadian regulators to seek a restart of a valuation process after MAG, which has deemed the offer too low, suspended it.

Fresnillo boosted 2008 attributable silver production by 1 percent to 34.8 million ounces while gold output fell 5.7 percent to 264,000 ounces.

Output in 2009 at its biggest mine, Fresnillo, and Cienega would be unchanged while the smallest operation, Herradura, had potential for slightly higher production, the firm said.

Fresnillo, which listed on the London Stock Exchange last May, proposed a final dividend of 7.7 cents a share."

Currency and tax going against it.

I withdraw my initial take on the stock.

Still compared to non metals this is a glowing performance.......blush.

How conflicting the results between Reuters above and MoneyAM below... who is right???



Fresnillo full year revenues up 6.9% - MoneyAM


Silver producer Fresnillo saw full year revenue rise 6.9% to $839.6m.

The firm's silver production in the year to the end of December was a record 34.8 million ounces and it also produced 264,000 ounces of gold.

Operating profit increased 26.3% to $283.6m and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation rose 21.7% to $337.4m.

Looking ahead at 2009, the firm said it recognised that it would be affected by the same factors as the industry as a whole and its focus will be on critical capex and intermediate and advanced exploration projects, ensuring that its short- to medium-term targets are met.

Tricky to predict the immediate future for FRES as strengthening silver & gold prices might be offset by the declining mexican currency & stock prices:
"The peso declined 0.5 percent to 14.8564 per U.S. dollar, from 14.7774 on 20th Feb. At the end of last week it touched a record low of 14.9855.

Mexican stocks also tumbled. The Bolsa Index fell 1.1 percent to 18,125.39, extending its decline to 19 percent this year.

Mexicos currency has tumbled 32 percent over the past six months, the second-worst performance against the dollar among the worlds major currencies after the Brazilian real, as a deepening recession in the U.S. dries up dollar flows from exports, remittances, tourism and foreign direct investment.(Bloomberg)"

I think it's time to SELL Fresnillo again.

Yes, you may be right. Are you shorting it?

More info to digest:

"t1ps.com stocks reporting
Featured Stock: Fresnillo (FRES)

David Miranda of the AIM & PLUS Newsletter writes: Fresnillo has seen its shares rocket by more than 300% since November in what has been a remarkable recovery drive, spurred on by buoyant silver and gold prices. The precious metals miner recorded silver production of 34.8 million ounces in 2008, and gold production of 263,600 ounces. The company said it expects production levels for 2009 to be in-line with those of 2008, whilst it makes further investments in operating efficiencies coupled with ongoing cost control initiatives to help protect margins. At 416.5p, Fresnillo is trading on an estimated 2009 P/E of 20, which is at a premium to the gold sector average. Despite the bullish outlook for gold and silver, this looks to be a pretty full rating for a company that is predicted to report narrowed profits on flat production in the current year. On the other hand, it could be argued the high multiple is justified by Fresnillos exploration upside and exposure to spot silver prices.

Zak writes: The chart of Fresnillo is one of the most stunning on the LSE at the moment. The current position here is that we are looking at a stock which has just delivered a massive U shaped recovery and a golden moving average cross between the blue 50 day and black 200 day lines. The assumption now is that while above the green 10 day moving average at 390p the shares could return to their all time high of 575p. "