Dear all,

I thought today, a key reversal day on the FTSE, after a Fibonacci Classic thirteen day sell off was a very good time to start some Candlesticks commentry on the FTSE 100.



We have a a thirteen day sell off, the longest continuous down day period since 1947, followed by a clear hammer bottom reversal, from L 3391.50 to H 3493.70, an intraday swing of 102.20 points, hammer reversal point 33.33% head/66.66% tail required, original run to 3490.70 fading at peak 3493.70 dutifully turned towards close at 3457.60/3459.62 area, hammer neckline, closing at C 3483.80

Hence:-

Head = H 3493.70-C 3483.80= 9.90 points
Tail = C 3483.80-L 3391.50=92.30 points

Previous day a bullish Long Legged Doji Formation indicating upcoming reversal, followed by strong hammer bottom, verging on dragonfly doji reversal, ie very bullish.



What we hope to see is a hammer bullish engulfing formation tomorrow in order to confirm this bullish reversal of the trend.

Cheers

Ashley

Milkshares,

Closed on daily high of 8578.70, you do not get much more bullish than that!

Cheers

Ash

Insider Trader,

Hopefully got it right this time Pivot Points and Support and Resistance tomorrow as follows:-

Definition

The pivot point and its support and resistance pairs are defined as follows:

Pivot point (P) = (H + L + C) / 3 First resistance level (R1) = (2 * P) - L First support level (S1) = (2 * P) - H Second resistance level (R2) = P + (R1 - S1) Second support level (S2) = P - (R1 - S1)

where H, L, C are the previous day's high, low and close, respectively.

My calculations showed today FTSE 100 UKX:-

H --3578.70
L --3483.80
C --3578.70

T-10,641.20

Therefore:-

Pivot 3547.06

Hence:-

R1 3610.33
S1 3515.43
R2 3641.96
S2 3452.16

Cheers

Ash

ASH

Good call,

Mike Shares,

Here are my calculations from http://www.sardinesplaice.com note we are now on resistance at 16 EMA Day 1 3679.90

After an approximately 9.50% sell off on the FTSE in January,indeed 15.80% High to low Intraday or 13.19% close to close high to low I thought it was time to call an up week on the FTSE.

It is not going to surprise me to see 3784.50/3807.50 this week.

I personally see both R1 and R2 going pretty early tomorrow am as the new FSA Ruling on Pension Funds Solvency Requirements is factored into market, but anyway here it is:-

The pivot point and its support and resistance pairs are defined as follows:

Pivot point (P) = (H + L + C) / 3 First resistance level (R1) = (2 * P) - L First support level (S1) = (2 * P) - H Second resistance level (R2) = P + (R1 - S1) Second support level (S2) = P - (R1 - S1)

where H, L, C are the previous day's high, low and close, respectively.

My calculations showed Friday FTSE 100 UKX:-
H --3580.50
L --3510.60
C --3567.40

T-10,658.50

Therefore:-

Pivot 3552.83

Hence:-

R1 3595.06
S1 3525.16
R2 3622.73
S2 3482.93

Key areas:-



FTSE Constituents and prices:-

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=+^FTSE+@UKX.L&f=snlcvi

UKX Historical Prices:-

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=+^FTSE+@UKX.L&f=snlcvi

Three month chart:-



Things to note Wave 1 length 3580.50 minus 3391.50=189 points.

Wave 2 retracement completed high 3580.50 less low 3510.60 length 69.90 points.

Wave 3 is normally the longest Wave to commence Monday AM, anticipate travel is normally 1.618 times 3580.50-3391.50=305.80 plus 3391.50=3697.30 or minimum 1.618 x 3510.60 minus 3391.50=119.10 points 192.70 points move minimum end wave 5=3584.20.

Key resistance October 10th low of 3663.40 area.

1 day chart 5 minute candles:-



10 Days Hourly Candles:-



Historical prices:-

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=+^FTSE+@UKX.L&f=snlcvi

January 2nd January closing high 4009.50, January 3rd monthly Intraday closing high 4027.50

Fibonacci Retracements from hammer bottom intraday low 3391.50 on 29th January or closing low 3480.80 on 27th January.

On Intraday High Low move 4027.50-3391.50=636.00 points

23.60%=150.10 target 3541.60
38.20%=243.00 target 3634.50
50.00%=318.00 target 3709.50
61.80%=393.00 target 3784.50

On Closing High Low move 4009.50-3480.80=528.70 points

23.60%=124.80 target 3605.60
38.20%=202.00 target 3682.80
50.00%=264.40 target 3745.20
61.80%=326.70 target 3807.50

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Best of luck.

Cheers

Ash

Looks like FTSE 100 is going to break Intrday high 3679.20 any minute on back of DJIA surge IMHO.

Cheers

Ash

FTSE Intraday Break out 5680.30 Next tests in range:-

38.20%=243.00 target 3634.50

75 point Gap Range Splits:-

23.60% 17.70 3652.20
27.20% 20.40 3654.90
38.20% 28.65 3663.15
50.00% 37.50 3672.00
61.80% 46.35 3680.85
76.40% 57.30 3691.80
78.60% 58.95 3693.45

50.00%=318.00 target 3709.50

BORE OFF, U GUYS DONT HAVE A CLUE

76.40% cleared at 3692.00, next test 3693.45 on 78.60%

3693.30 in place, possible requirement to retest 3680.85 61.80% support now 3691.80 failed before trying to break this level above 3693.45, noting previous resistance should become support ie 3679.20 or above IMHO

Trailing stop on or around supports around 3672.00-3675.00 sensible IMHO.

Break out 3697.70, next stop 3709.50, stops moved up one to 3680.85 IMHO.

Profit taking towards close, but 3698.90 in place today.

Cheers

Ash

Where to tomorrow Ash?

Insider Trader,

Well on profit taking we held above 3672.00, before rise towards close at 3689.40.

Basically I can see some profit taking at some stage but unconcerned provided 3659.90 holds, I expect this rise today to possibly bring more capital into market, although stress 1,093,794,484 volume is not massive.

I think we will break 3709.50 tomorrow possibly, and I still see by Wednesday possible 3784.50/3807.50 this week on or around 34 day EMA.

Hopefully got it right this time Pivot Points and Support and Resistance tomorrow as follows:-

Definition

The pivot point and its support and resistance pairs are defined as follows:

Pivot point (P) = (H + L + C) / 3 First resistance level (R1) = (2 * P) - L First support level (S1) = (2 * P) - H Second resistance level (R2) = P + (R1 - S1) Second support level (S2) = P - (R1 - S1)

where H, L, C are the previous day's high, low and close, respectively.

My calculations showed today FTSE 100 UKX:-

H --3698.90
L --3649.90
C --3689.40

T-11,038.20

Therefore:-

Pivot 3679.40

Hence:-

R1 3708.90
S1 3659.90
R2 3728.40
S2 3630.40

So I am qualifiedly bullish, I think many may have sat on sidelines and would have needed to see a 122.00 point FTSE rise to have believed time to enter market long.

FTSE is still oversold relative to DJIA, S & P 500, on a two day view I think 3784.50/3807.50 this week by Wednesday on or around 34 day EMA will be achieved which would represent a 38.20% or 5 day Time Fibo retracement of the 13 day drop, noting that Friday made a higher high just at 3580.50, so to me counts as an up day.

A 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement of 49.00 point gain from O 3649.90 to H 3698.90 put us at 3668.60 above previous resistance being support on hammer bottom 10th October 2002 at 3663.40 area.



The most important thing is we have significantly broken important resistance at 3609.90, 3625.90 and 3663.40, so I think short term trend is up.

DJIA Short term chart may reinforce this short term bullishness:-



All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Best regards

Ash

Insider Trader,

Following DJIA Close.

To confirm I do see a retest of 3663.40 to 3668.60 area tomorrow possibly, but retain my short term bullish stance, MACD remains IMHO oversold, RSI looks poised to break 50%, and Slow Stochastic has not yet reached 80% let alone bent over at 90% approx.

Towards the end of January 2003 I called an arbitrage pairs opportunity short DJIA/Long FTSE to arbitrage the then differential between current pricing and normal --> 2/1 DJIA/UKX Ratio, while retaining an effectively perceived neutral directional risk to the markets as a whole.

The convergence of the two indices definitely seems to be happenning, here is the latest:-

DJIA O:8053.74 H:8152.08 L:8053.74 C:8109.48
FTSE O:3567.40 H:3698.90 L:3567.40 C:3689.40

Ratio
FTSE/DJIA O:44.29% H:45.37% L:44.29% C:45.49%

Basically we are seeing a convergence towards 50%, with a current divergence reducing from 44.29% to 45.59% today, a 2.72% convergence of the two indices.

Here is Three Month Convergence/Divergence Daily:-



Here is Three Year Convergence/Divergence Weekly:-



All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Best regards

Ashley

Insider Trader,

Well breach of S1 Level at 3659.90 should have triggered stops to close on rally to 3684.00 this morning.

Interesting that profit taking leads to a fall from H yesterday 3698.90 or C 3689.40 to an Intraday L of 3637.30, above S2 level, and above 78.60% level or 21.40% Retracement level of 307.40 point gain from L 3391.50 to high 3698.90 at 3633.10.

Basically yesterday saw a rise from 3567.40 to 3698.90 131.50 points, or closing 122.00 points at 3689.40, today our low at 3637.30 is 61.60 points ie a 50% retracement of yesterday's gain (50.49% of O C or 46.84% of O H)to retest trend line support.

Important issue is S2 is not breached and I guess a retracement was on the cards after yesterday's 3.42% rise in the indices.

Hopefully tomorrow will give the direction up or down.

Right now assuming we do not break 3626.40 23.60% (72.50 points) retracement level to S2 3630.40 level we may see the FTSE regain it's possibly more durable one day up, one day retracement pattern from 29th January 2003 hammer.

War worries no doubt persist though arguably factored into the markets already.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

Seems to be bouncing from 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level of yesterday's 122.00 closing gain 3567.40 to 3689.40 at 3614.00. Not sure for how long.

38.20% Retracement of whole 307.40 points rise L 3391.50 H 3698.90=3581.50
50.00% Retracement of whole 307.40 points rise L 3391.50 H 3698.90=3545.20
61.80% Retracement of whole 307.40 points rise L 3391.50 H 3698.90=3508.90

Looks bearish although may turn from 3581.50 IMHO

Pivot points for tomorrow for those interested.

Hopefully got it right this time Pivot Points and Support and Resistance tomorrow as follows:-

Definition

The pivot point and its support and resistance pairs are defined as follows:

Pivot point (P) = (H + L + C) / 3 First resistance level (R1) = (2 * P) - L First support level (S1) = (2 * P) - H Second resistance level (R2) = P + (R1 - S1) Second support level (S2) = P - (R1 - S1)

where H, L, C are the previous day's high, low and close, respectively.

My calculations showed today FTSE 100 UKX:-

H --3684.00
L --3590.10
C --3590.10

T-10,864.20

Therefore:-

Pivot 3621.40

Hence:-

R1 3652.70
S1 3558.80
R2 3715.30
S2 3527.50

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

Ash

After todays events, it just shows we all must be ready to rethink our stances/calculations at the drop of a hat, and above all remember that the market is always right. Keep up the good work.

Ash excellent thread, don`t stop now

MikeShares,

Sorry I have decided to cease posting huge reams of information on the BB, but appreciate your kind words.

Regretably certain other people do not wish me to post extensively on the boards so I have taken the easy way out and stopped.

I do not intend to post much now on MoneyAM.

Hope you were long and made a good profit today.

Cheers

Ash