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Access Intelligence Group - Growing up fast (ACC)     

PapalPower - 29 Dec 2005 09:57

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Size=283*18Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=acc&Size=big.chart?symb=uk%3Aacc&compidx=aaaaa%3A

Access Intelligence has five operating subsidiaries:

* The Marketing Guild, based in York, which provides marketing advice
and support to small and medium sized businesses. This is in the form of
newsletters, consultancy, lead generation and member's services.
http://www.marketing-guild.com

* Wired Gov, based in Stockport, provides an online information service
delivering press releases from over 100 government and public sector
bodies. Subscribers can customise the service specifying the agency or
topic they require.
http://www.wired-gov.com

* Backup and Running, based in York, provides an online data storage and
disaster recovery service, which the client can customize to their own
requirements. The service offers significant advantages over other
alternative systems in that it backs up automatically and can provide a
complete backup history for at least three years.
http://www.backupandrunning.co.uk


* Willow Starcom (Ridgeway Technologies), based in Chorley, provides
specialist IT services across a broad range of market sectors that
include data storage, backup and recovery, network design support and
consultancy and hardware and software maintenance support services. It
has growing recurring revenues from these activities of over 1million
per annum.
http://www.willowstarcom.co.uk


* Due North, based in Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, is a developer and provider of
e- commerce solutions, primarily to the public sector and emergency
services. The range of products includes an e-tendering module combined
with an e-auction module.
http://www.due-north.com


Access Intelligence is a group of companies delivering a range of business
critical support services to private and public sector organisations.
The team of Directors, Jeremy Hamer, Brendan Austin, Colin Davies, Ian Savage
and Alwin Thompson, has extensive experience in making successful acquisitions
while simultaneously driving organic growth: in less than two years since
flotation, Access Intelligence has acquired and successfully integrated five
businesses in four different market segments.

The Group Today

Today, Access Intelligence is a technology-based Support Services Business. It
harnesses the power of internet-based Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to deliver vital information and support services. Specifically these are:

* Digital marketing services and business development support.
* Online and offline data storage back-up and retrieval
* Sourcing and procurement software for both buyers and suppliers in
industry and local government
* Electronic news and current awareness digests of Government initiatives,
policies and finance affecting business, the professions and the public sector

The Business Model

The majority of the Group's income is from repeating revenues delivered through
recurring contracts ranging between one and five years. This model provides
excellent visibility of future revenues and, with effective customer retention,
outstanding gross margins over the longer term.

The Strategy for Growth

The strategy is to acquire businesses which have good management and high growth potential that fit the revenue model while, at the same time, adding value to the Group's existing services.

The businesses acquired will have substantial autonomy to develop within budgets
agreed with the Group Chief Executive and Finance Director, whilst benefiting
from the experience and cross selling opportunities provided by being part of an
expanding group of companies.

At this stage of the Group's development, the Central Group Executive Team,
which is based in York, will be kept to a maximum of four people, including
support staff. The Non-Executive Directors will continue to be involved in
sourcing and evaluating potential acquisitions and monitoring the performance of
the Group.

PapalPower - 02 Jan 2006 10:15 - 9 of 184

I asked "fingers xxd" at AFN to give ACC the once over, to which he did and I have thanked him for it. The key event coming up late Feb is the results, and what should be upgrades to forecasts based on good progress. That is an event which should give the upwards push to ACC.

From "fingers" is below


"ACC - 6.75p .. viewing its 'all-data' chart, I see that the price 'fell off a cliff', during late 2004, and such a fall is usually due to a major problem with the company, or the company doing something which the market is not very happy about, and checking on the reason for the fall, I see that it was due to a 'major share placing'.big.chart?symb=uk%3Aacc&compidx=aaaaa%3AAs a general guide .. such sharp falls are usually overdone, which often produces a bounce, which again is usually overdone .. the 'low & the high' produced, will then usually determine the 'basement price range' until such time as the 'problem' has been rectified, at which point the price can then start its road to recovery .. if the 'basement range' is relatively tight, and if the price has spent 12 mths or more within that range, its subsequent recovery can often be quite dramatic, with a very sharp uptrend developing.
Zooming into the sharp fall of ACC, it shows that the price did not see an 'initial bounce', instead its fall was halted by the 10.00p level, which at these low prices, is a very strong 'psychological level', and it succesfully held the price for 3 mths, before its support eventually failed.big.chart?symb=uk%3Aacc&compidx=aaaaa%3A
Its subsequent fall to 6.00p in May and the following strong bounce to 12.00p, is the type of range from which I would take guidance, and at these low levels, I would extend that slightly to incorporate the 2.50p intervals that I am obsessed with .. so I reckon its basement range 'selling floor' will be at 5.00p, with its 'buying ceiling' at 12.50p .. so overall, if I am right, that is quite a large potential range, which would therefore offer trading opportunities .. however, that is its 'outer limits', and I would expect the price to be more confined than that .. probably rising in 'stages'.
I have already mentioned the strong 10.00p 'psychological' level above, and the 5.00p level below is another strong 'psychological' level. In between is the 7.50p 'mid point', which I believe will also have a strong influence on any price movement.
The 3 mth chart below shows that the price has been restricted throughout, between 5.00p - 7.50p, and I would expect it to remain within this lower range, until it has built up sufficient strength to move up to its next 'stage' .. 'buys' appearing above 7.50p would then be the first signal that it is attempting to make its move, and confirmation would be given once the prices 'closes' above. big.chart?symb=uk%3Aacc&compidx=aaaaa%3A
I would then expect the price to remain within a range of around 7.50p - 10.00p, until once again it has built up the strength to move on up to the 10.00p - 12.50p 'stage' above.
Once its 'problems' have been rectified and the market is beginning to view it favourably again, the price can then make the strong 12.50p 'basement range' breakout, which could then see the price doubling in a relatively short period .. but this breakout move could be many months away.
Oh dear, I have written a book again .. sorry .. hopefully bits of it will make some sense .. as usual, just a few unbiased thoughts of a non-holder for what they are worth.big.chart?symb=uk%3Aacc&compidx=aaaaa%3A"

PapalPower - 06 Jan 2006 01:32 - 10 of 184

The thing to consider here is the director buying, it marked what they think is a very cheap price going forward, and so its proven to be by the Dec trading update. They have had no chance to buy anymore since then, but I would be certain they are going to buy more as soon as the closed period for prelim results is out of the way.

I certainly think this will be pushing through the 9p and 10p level after results based on them, and the new forecasts for 06 and 07 and that should be back by further director buying I hope. A good few months ahead on ACC I feel.

PapalPower - 08 Jan 2006 12:26 - 11 of 184

As said before, I think Due-North is a real winner for ACC group and I will highlight a few articles about them;


http://tinyurl.com/cpsuk


UK PLC partners with Due North

@UK has partnered with Due North to provide a comprehensive offering for efficient procurement encompassing supplier e-enablement, e-tendering, e-auctions and e-procurement.

Lyn Duncan, Managing Director of @UK PLC commented Although we remain separate entities, there is a perfect fit between what our two companies have to offer. In combination we allow any local authority or other large body to use a complete tool kit of capabilities so as to achieve Best Value across the whole range of needs from small scale goods and services to full EU tendering of major procurements.

Alan Gray Managing Director of Due North said We will be increasing the level of interoperability steadily over the next few months so that for example once an authority has run a competitive tender or e-auction, the winner passes seamlessly into the allowable e-procurement supplier set of the authority, to be activated on the date of application of the new tender. All difficulties previously encountered when a new tender came into force of the old supplier hanging over will be removed. The process of achieving Best Value just became much simpler and easier as a result. We will apply these benefits initially in clients we already share such as Devon County Council and Durham County Council but the strategy is also immediately available to those many clients where one or other of us is active.

Lyn Duncan said Our recent survey in association with The Municipal Journal indicated that as many as 40% of local authorities are not expected to meet the ODPM December 2005 deadline to implement e-procurement. We believe this partnership will make it even easier and quicker for authorities to move forward and gain advantage from a whole range of e-techniques. Because both our services are Application Service Provisions (ASPs) via the Internet, there is minimal IT impact and disruption, and costs are significantly less than authorities responding to our survey anticipated. This move also builds upon our previously announced partnership with Spikes Cavell; an organisation which provides authorities even more information so as to achieve an overall major uplift in its procurement capability. We can now lay claim to a truly uniquely offering which will allow any local authority to revolutionise its procurement.

Date posted: 10 Nov 2005

PapalPower - 08 Jan 2006 13:31 - 12 of 184

http://www.torbay.gov.uk/contracts_register_dec_2005.xls.pdf

21/12/05

Access to contracts via the Internet
https://www.devontenders.gov.uk

The Council has linked with Due North to use software (QT Tender) to enable Torbay Council to maintain data on both tendering and contracts let by the Council. The new system will enable tenders to be published on the DPP* Internet Portal to provide for equal opportunity and transparency to all suppliers, large or small, seeking to obtain Council business: helping to ensure that the Council is getting value for money and that contracts are being let effectively.
The Due North solution will allow the Council to obtain quotes from suppliers in a time frame suited to their business needs and provides the ability to create quotations and tenders online: distributing these documents to registered suppliers on-line. Paper based systems will
be replaced with web-enabled functionality, whilst providing a full audit history and workflow tracking, with the added benefit of speed in both response and creation. Due North addresses the issues of linking the procurer with their suppliers, allowing requests for quotations and tenders to be processed securely on the Internet.

PapalPower - 08 Jan 2006 19:32 - 13 of 184

http://www.devon-cornwall.police.uk/v3/ShowPDF.cfm?PDFName=eTender.pdf

In support of the drive for E procurement, a contract was awarded in April 2004, to Due North, to provide an E-Tendering solution which would be available to all Police Forces and Emergency Services in general. E-Tendering refers specifically to tendering that is based, at least in part, on the use of Internet technology. The http://www.bluelight.gov.uk site is a complete internet based e-tendering solution. This means that no software resides on either the procurers or the suppliers own computers and that all exchanges of documentation are done electronically on-line.

DUE-NORTH eSOURCE SUITE
Developed in Partnership in the Public Sector

Due North have worked together with several public sector bodies in the past few years in the creation of a complete solution designed to meet the electronic sourcing, tendering, auctioning, contact management and procurement planning requirements of the Public Sector. The system can be used in a collective situation as a portal where several bodies share the same suppliers and collaborate in the procurement process, or as a standalone system for larger bodies. Individual modules can be purchased separately or when combined together provide a total eSource solution, which is designed to meet the different needs of any size of procurement team.
Being internet based the entire system can be seamlessly accessed, from the home, the office, or anywhere with internet connectivity. The total eSource solution consists of the following modules also available as standalone options;
eTender:- e-tendering with OJEU Capability
ePlanner:- Contract Publication
eContract: Contract Management
ePortal:- Multiple organisations sharing one procurement portal
eAuctions:- Reverse Auction
eNet:- Procurement intranet




PapalPower - 14 Jan 2006 11:13 - 14 of 184

"Due North has just made its first sale into the private sector alongside its strengthening public sector client base."


I will be more interested in updates on Due-North progress in particular and how far into the public sector they have got in the update at prelims in Feb.

PapalPower - 16 Jan 2006 16:41 - 15 of 184

A move up today, something must be going on in the background I think,

PapalPower - 23 Jan 2006 00:47 - 16 of 184

Latest broker forecast updated

PapalPower - 30 Jan 2006 01:52 - 17 of 184

Posted recently an AFN was a few months old article from watshot.com, I have copied some of the post over, not the full article that was posted there:

"Back to Access. Having cut costs back tremendously, the company will essentially be profitable this year. I say essentially by way of excluding goodwill amortisation. At the interim stage, sales were a 100,000 ahead of the comparable May 2004 period, and setting goodwill amortisation aside, the magic transition from red to black was just about made. Meanwhile, the acquisition of Due North was completed in July and I think it's fairly safe to assume we will hear an update on that along with the full year numbers, which I gather, will probably be unveiled in February. Now, whilst it may be tempting to flog these in the anticipation of little to no newsflow, I would urge you to think again. I suspect we will get some sort of statement about how the year has gone ahead of the numbers, what's more, I think Access has begun to understand the need to communicate more effectively with the market. Newsflow drives share prices, and with everything seemingly on track, there is little reason to doubt why a revival in communication, wouldn't lift the stock higher.
This is a company with a strong foothold in the market of public sector and emergency services' e-tendering requirements, and whose experience gained has enabled a wider e-commerce and e-auction brief to be addressed. Due North arrived at a cost of 1 million in cash and the issue of 4.7 million shares. 600,000 more may be forthcoming to its vendors if, for the year to November 2006, Due North makes an operating profit of more than 350,000, and 750,000 more if the following year the total exceeds 450,000. The additional consideration, if it comes, will be in the form of ordinary shares unless the beneficiaries elect to receive 20% in cash. This was a tidy little deal, which in my opinion, looks set to improve the operating performance no end. When we factor in Due North, which made over 200,000 in the nine months to May this year and has 100,000 in cash, has introduced its services to 40% of police authorities, 7% of local authorities and 11% of fire brigades; the picture improves yet further.
The intention moving forward, is that fellow-subsidiary, Wired Gov, the online public sector information system, will cooperate closely with Due North to seek synergistic gains. Bill was remarkably bullish on Access, and back then, with a longer term view, I can perhaps understand his enthusiasm. This is a site about making money from small caps trading and as such, Access Intelligence is now ripe for the picking ahead of the results. By February at the latest, I believe the shares will have moved up towards 9p, and as such there is at least a gain of 40% to be bagged here, with the anticipation of newsflow. "Buy".
"

Saintserf - 30 Jan 2006 17:29 - 18 of 184

I'm surprised you're quoting "What'shot". I've had a look at their site and they seem to favour some pretty dodgy shares. They may be very good, conrad witherspoon and luke heron but I keep getting sent stuff to try and subscribe to them a lot. If they're so good why do they need to advertise so much? I sent them a long e-mail a few months ago with a bunch of questions I recieved no reply, this did not instill me with confidence, in contrast to Fat prophets where the guy in charge spent a long time replying to my questions.

PapalPower - 31 Jan 2006 00:04 - 19 of 184

Saintserf I find its the same with any tip site tips, some are good, some are dogs, I think RHPS had one of its worst years last year. I sign up for a few sites, go through all their tips, will probably on average go into 30% of the total tips on any site, for me it just helps picking up on certain companies that I can research into.

PapalPower - 03 Feb 2006 16:52 - 20 of 184

MM's playing with the bid and offer this week, trying to get sells I think. Results are due later this month, and we know from the recent pre close trading update, things are very good ! :)

PapalPower - 05 Feb 2006 13:34 - 21 of 184

I think the chart shows that they are trying to knock out some sellers before we get nearer to results later this month.

Take a look at a one week chart with spread and bid/offer and its clear what they were up to I think, watch this move upwards as results get nearer.

PapalPower - 09 Feb 2006 12:31 - 22 of 184

Some buyers coming in now. Good to see, the pre close statement was good, results should be excellent, outlook good, no reason why this should not be very much higher than it is now.

Results should be around the 20th to 23rd I think, but certainly in Feb.

PapalPower - 09 Feb 2006 14:34 - 23 of 184

And we have a small tick up, excellent, lets hope we get a good run in now to the results.

2517GEORGE - 09 Feb 2006 16:13 - 24 of 184

PP
Looks like the 0.75p rise in the offer price has deterred the buyers for a while, I'm looking forward to the results, must admit I know nothing about ACC other than what's on this thread, I've just dipped a toe in today.
2517

PapalPower - 09 Feb 2006 16:39 - 25 of 184

2517, the trading statement as of Dec, in the header above, was excellent, and the outlook very positive, as you can read above.

The MM's seem to be deterring buyers still, always putting the offer price up very quickly.

Results are this month, so with present forecast EPS for current year (2006) at 0.75p we are presently well under a 10 times PER and with strong cash and strong growth. 2007 forecasts will come out after results, so we could be on a very low pr PER soon. In this case, its very undervalued and should be in the 9p to 10p range for starters.

2517GEORGE - 09 Feb 2006 17:10 - 26 of 184

Yes it does look encouraging, and a final tick up tonight.
2517

Technotamed - 09 Feb 2006 18:46 - 27 of 184

Is it worth getting in on the action now?

PapalPower - 10 Feb 2006 10:39 - 28 of 184

Ted, yes I think so.

We had a buy at 7.31 today, if we get buys at 7.5 its a good sign, if we get buys over 7.5 it would point to a major move up coming soon.
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