One of the better Drinks industry Investments/trades.

Certainly got Momentum in its favour and we have a bottom triangle/wedge formation breakout.

First resistance level at around 500p.



dyor

Still not sure what to do with GNK. Snow and cold weather will not have helped sales.

If we don't go to World Cup in Russia impact could be considerable.


I have researched some more and shortracker shows the shorts really piling it on. In particular Marshall Wallace are added to their short in volume. They have made some good calls recently and this leads me to be wary.

This is also interested. GNK in blue, MARS in red.


Short position GNK 10.5%, MARS 3.4%. Both are rising but GNK rising much faster.

Against the index...

Love the company. Market does not.

Still waiting to buy in.

Looking back Pubs went south long before the last recession 2007/ 2008

They are a good signal to where we are heading.

Let the hedgefunds have their day on this one.

They are probably correct for now.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/31/questor-solid-foundations-mean-soon-call-time-pub-firm-greene/

Questor has followed Greene King closely, recommending in December for readers to sell the shares.

Since then, they have declined 11pc and at this level are worth another look. Pub landlords and restaurateurs face a tough few years ahead but trading on eight times next year’s forecast earnings, it is too early to call time on this particular operator. Buy.


I'm still on the sidelines but mostly because I bought LLOY, STAN and SBRE in preference. I do have some Marstons so no desire to rush in. Waiting for a stupidly low price I guess

I bought MARS in 2011 @93.47p and sold half @164.28 in 2013 - I may well buy them again if they drop much further.

Green day :)

Good to see the shorters having some pain on this. I didn't buy in the end although I made a few quid off MARS a couple of days ago intra-day.

I continue to hold MARS and look forward to shorters suffering more pain on some of their reckless shorts.

Which gap first?

Not sure what you mean Skinny but GNK is off my radar now since it's risen 25% or so.

Me too CC, so I hope its the second gap.

Final Results

HIGHLIGHTS2

Successful customer investment and cost mitigation programmes

· Pub Company like-for-like (LFL) sales -1.2% excluding the impact of snow, up 20 bps since the half year; improved customer service scores

· Driven by investment in value, service and quality (VSQ) and good Christmas / Easter trading

· £44m cost savings delivered through mitigation programme and Spirit synergies

· Brand optimisation programme delivered 25% ROI; Fayre & Square fully debranded

· Pub Partners LFL net profit +0.4%; Brewing & Brands revenue +7.4%

Resilient financial metrics

· Strong cash generation; £89.9m post core capex & dividends, more than covers debt amortisation

· Net debt to EBITDA1,2 4.2x

· Well invested and located pub estate; 82% freehold or long leasehold

· Dividend per share3 of 33.2p; long-term track record of attractive, sustainable dividend

Strategic priorities to continue driving momentum

· Improve underlying sales growth in Pub Company

· Develop a more efficient and effective organisation

· Further strengthen the capital structure

Current trading and outlook

· Pub Company LFL sales +2.2% over the last eight weeks, aided by good weather and sporting fixtures; Pub Partners and Brewing & Brands trading in line with expectations

· Strong World Cup trading; 59% of consumers expect to watch an England game at the pub

· Expect £45-50m cost inflation; £30-35m cost savings and targeting Pub Company LFL growth

Rooney Anand, chief executive officer

"We made good progress improving the performance of the business during the second half of the year, despite a challenging trading environment. Our investment to improve the customer experience in our pubs and the focus on our strategic priorities are beginning to pay off. Positive momentum, both in terms of trading and customer satisfaction, is returning to our business.

"While it is still early days, this positive momentum has continued into the new financial year, aided by good weather and popular sporting events. We remain focused on continuing to drive top line growth, developing a more efficient organisation and further strengthening our capital structure to deliver long-term value creation for our shareholders.

"We expect the trading environment to remain challenging for some time, but we strongly believe people will continue to choose the great British pub as the place to enjoy time with friends and family."

Peel Hunt Add 602.70 700.00 - Reiterates

Shore Capital Buy 632.90 - - Retains

Finished down 9% on the day!

It has run out of gas.

StockMarketWire.com
Pub group Greene King said Friday a prolonged spell of sunny weather and the World Cup had kept the booze flowing at its Pub Company driving above-market sales growth during the summer period.

For the 18 weeks to 2 September, Pub Company's like-for-like sales rose 2.8%, beating a 1.2% rise in the broader market.

Like-for-like net profit fell 0.4% after 16 weeks, impacted by the timing of higher overhead costs, the company said.

Total beer volumes in Brewing & Brands were up 4.0% and own-brewed volumes were up 0.3%.

Greene King branded local pubs delivered like-for-like sales of 5.5%, as 3.7m pints of beer were sold in total during England's seven World Cup matches.

The 'strong' performance was attributed to the weather and a successful World Cup, while investment to further improve the company's value, service and quality also bolstered performance, Greene King said.

The company said its cost cutting programme was on track to help offset gross cost inflation of about £45m to £50m as it eyed further sales of at least 100 pubs this year, with nine new pubs slated to open. 'We continue to focus on profitably driving top line growth, developing a more streamlined and efficient organisation and further strengthening our capital structure to deliver long-term value creation for our shareholders,' the company said.

Directorate Change

Peel Hunt Buy 499.20 700.00 Reiterates

Liberum Capital Buy 499.20 670.00 Reiterates

A mention here.

Half-year Report

Continued LFL sales momentum in Pub Company

· Pub Company like-for-like (LFL) sales up 2.7%, ahead of the market4 up 1.1%

· Driven by the ongoing benefits from our investment in value, service and quality (VSQ), our strategic focus on four core brands, and boosted by good weather and the World Cup

· Pub Partners LFL net income up; Brewing & Brands revenue up 7.5%

Consistent cash generation, disciplined capital allocation & attractive property valuation

· Operating cash generated5 covers scheduled debt repayment, core capex and dividends

· Further steps taken to refinance Spirit debenture, reducing cost and increasing flexibility of our debt; to date annualised cash interest saving c.£13m and net present value benefit c.£45m

· Interim dividend maintained at 8.8p per share; dividend cover5 of 1.9x

· Estate optimisation; tail disposal proceeds fund new builds, helping to grow average weekly take in Pub Company by 7.9% over the last three years

· Pub estate valuation supports maintained leverage; market value of £4.5bn

Current trading and outlook

· LFL sales in Pub Company were up 2.9% at week 30; Pub Partners and Brewing & Brands performing in line with expectations

· Christmas bookings well ahead of last year

· Remain on track to limit full year net cost inflation to £10-20m

Rooney Anand, chief executive officer

"We have seen continued positive momentum in Pub Company, which was sustained beyond the boost of the World Cup and the summer weather. The hard work of our teams, combined with the investments we made to improve our customer experience, is driving sales outperformance to the market. We remain highly cash generative, meeting our debt repayment requirements, investing in our pubs and paying an attractive, sustainable dividend out of operating free cashflow. Good progress was made refinancing the Spirit debenture, which will reduce the cost of our debt and increase the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet.

"Looking forward, Christmas bookings are up on last year and we look forward to ensuring customers have a great time celebrating the festive season in our pubs. Ongoing uncertainty around Brexit may impact on consumer confidence, but as a team we are focused on our key strategic priorities and remain confident of our outlook for the financial year."

Liberum Capital Buy 540.60 670.00 Reiterates

Shore Capital Buy 540.60 Retains

CHRISTMAS TRADING UPDATE

Trading statement for the 36 weeks to 6th January 2019

After 36 weeks of our financial year, Pub Company like-for-like (LFL) sales were up 3.2% following strong trading over the Christmas period as we continue to trade ahead of the market1. LFL sales in the last two weeks, covering Christmas and the New Year, were up 10.9% and we achieved record Christmas day sales of £7.7m. All sales categories saw LFL sales growth over the last six weeks with our Greene King branded Local Pubs driving strong drink sales growth. Last year's additional investment in Value, Service and Quality continues to underpin our performance.

Pub Partners LFL net profit was down approximately 1% while total beer volumes in Brewing & Brands were up 1.8% and own-brewed volumes were down 2.3%.

Our cost mitigation programme is on track to limit net cost inflation to £10-20m in the year while we made further progress on our estate optimisation programme, remaining on course to dispose of 100-110 pubs and open around nine new pubs in the financial year.

Following the announcement in December of an open tender process on the remaining Spirit bonds, as part of our ongoing debt refinancing programme, we have bought back £62m of the Spirit A5 bonds to date.

While the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit may still have an impact on consumer confidence and spending during the year, we remain confident of our outlook for the financial year. We remain focused on our strategic priorities of driving profitable sales growth, developing a more streamlined and efficient organisation, and further strengthening and improving the flexibility of our capital structure to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

1. Coffer Peach Business Tracker