.

If the rumours are correct : it looks like there are hydrocarbons present in this well......whether there are enough so Borders can declare a commercial discovery remains to be seen......mght be better than people expect !....by the way condensate is far better than plain old gas.....

Nice write up, and speculation Darwin will be commercial.

http://www.pennenergy.com/index/articles/newsdisplay/1698147026.html

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I'm beginning to wonder if after all this time RF is PRO in disguise.,.

I am getting annoyed with this seemingly unbreakable resistance at 90p.

Are investors waiting for the results at BOR?

Only when I've got my female slacks and high heels on BB.....you never know Borders mght just come up with a surprise result.....

Based on PMO buying of RKH reserves that is circa 10US$ a barrel lets see how Loligo works.



4.7 billion recoverable barrels.

75% of that is 3.525 billion barrels.

3,525,000,000 x 10 US$ = 35,250,000,000 US$ or say 23 billion pounds.

23 billion pounds into 320m FOGL shares in issue equals 72 pounds a share.


You can see why 50 pounds a share is very possible should Loligo be full of oil.


And of course, the FOGL farm in partner is a mega multi billion part French owned company in the form of EDF (parent of Edison).

loligo doesn't - it hasn't found anything yet

Yet being the optimal word with drilling starting next month :) !!

SP getting hammered today, down nearly 6% so far.

Looks like bad BOR news is on its way tomorrow. Now if they wash out Darwin bad news it might be a sign that Stebbing is good (thats something for next week and they might be clearing the decks tomorrow of Darwin ready for Stebbing news next week).

If its bad Stebbing news tomorrow then really good Darwin news later is going to do little to support the share price with no oil found and no drills left.

Fingers crossed for BOR holders that its bad Darwin news tomorrow if anything.

Can't go by anything at the moment : look at Rockhopper....very good news and the sp dives......crazy at the moment...

It is interesting to play with the figures. Any find in the South Falklands (given the sandstones are massive thick single ones and not difficult multiple thin sands as per the north - and so are easy to develop with much less wells needed and much higher chances of EOR success) is more valuable than the North, but even so, lets use the RKH example and use a low ball 4 US$ a barrel valuation.


4.7 billion recoverable barrels.

75% of that is 3.525 billion barrels.

3,525,000,000 x 4 US$ = say 9 billion pounds.

9 billion pounds into 320m FOGL shares in issue equals 28 pounds a share.


Therefore the upside on any Loligo oil find could be in the region of 28 to 50 pounds a share imo.


One must not forget Loligo is just 4.7 billion recoverable barrels potential (Oil in Place of nearly 16 billion barrels) BUT BUT BUT, FOGL has massive acreage in the South Falklands and their top 100 leads contain around OIP of 300 billion barrels.

You can clearly see why FOGL is deemed the "Jewel in the crown" and why FKL hold so much FOGL shares.

Proselenes,

My big toe is in Borders and Southern (appetizer prior to the main meal), therefore my foot is well and truly in Falklands Oil and Gas.........Definitely FOGL is the "Jewel in the Crown".

It was a really bad day for all “Exploratory Companies” yesterday; I should know, I am in the likes of,
• Range
• Victory
• Xcite
• BOR
• FOGL
However, my other explorer ………… PetroCeltic………Is climbing nicely!

The "idiots" guide to the Loligo prospect.

Loligo will be the first of two drills by FOGL.

Loligo has a P50 Oil In Place (OIP) estimate of nearly 16 billion barrels of oil

In the event Loligo is all oil it is expected the P50 recoverable barrels would be in the region of 4.7 billion barrels.

In the event Loligo is gas it is expected the P50 recoverable gas would be 25 TCF.

There is considerable upside potential to the P50 OIP figure, as of course there is downside as well. Loligo could end up being small or nothing, or indeed it could end up being 25 billion barrels of OIP.

The bare minimum requirement for economic gas development is 5 TCF, however this is not that attractive. The economics of gas development in this location become hot, hard and horny attractive when you get to 10 TCF recoverable or more. Therefore should Loligo be dry gas it is extremely commercial given 25 TCF P50 recoverable gas estimates.

Loligo has 5 targets, these being T1 at the top, T1 deep, Trigg, Trigg Deep and then Three Bears at the bottom.

The work done by BHP suggests the upper couple may be gas and the lower ones more likely oil. This is why FOGL tried their best to put themselves into a position to drill "Loligo Deep Well" which will go through all 5 sections.

The size of each target zone (based on oil) as we go from top to bottom is :


T1 = P50 OIP of 5 billion barrels = 1.5 billion recoverable barrels.

T1 Deep = P50 OIP of 2.15 billion barrels = 644 million recoverable barrels

Trigg and Trigg Deep = P50 OIP of 3.24 billion barrels = 969 million recoverable barrels

Three Bears = P50 OIP of 5.3 billion barrels = 1.59 billion recoverable barrels


(For a comparison Sea Lion of RKH is OIP of 1.3 billion barrels and circa 400 million recoverable barrels from that OIP figure)

As you can see Loligo is potentially around 12 times larger than Sea Lion.

Loligo has had several 2D seismic studies done giving very good infill data, and 2D with infill is far superior to standard 2D. BHP also did extensive studies and the conclusions are there are strong DHI's for the Loligo prospect - sadly for BHP their South American mining interests were used against them, IIS, to make them drop their FOGL interest, something they did not want to do but were pressured into. They wanted to retain back in rights given they know how prospective it is, however the Falklands Government refused to allow back in rights and BHP ended up having to let go of the lot in order to preserve and protect their South American mining interests in the face of Argie/Brazil pressure.

RKH recently accepted what I would call a "low ball" offer from PMO, its appears PMO was the only bid on the table at a price level that could be considered to be accepted. There are reasons for a low ball offer, one being presently Sea Lion is a stranded oil find, Sea Lion is not that big, Sea Lion is going to be difficult to develop based on the thin multiple sands (meaning lots of wells needed and difficult EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery)). But anyway, using the 4.7 US$ a barrel that PMO aid to be conservative you get :

4.7 billion recoverable barrels of which 75% is FOGL interest.

Thats 3.525 billion barrels to FOGL x 4.7 US$ = 10.7 billion pounds sterling.

10.7 billion divided by 320 million shares in issue = 33.5 pounds per FOGL share should Loligo be full of oil and thats based on "low ball" figures.

And that is just the Loligo prospect (FOGL has over a hundred leads in the license areas with potentially 300 billion barrels of OIP and 100 billion recoverable barrels potential).

FOGL is considered the "Jewel in the Crown" of the Falklands, and its no surprise a multi-billion major like EDF farmed into FOGL via Edison, and also no surprise that FKL hold lots of FOGL shares.

Pro - 16 billion barrels my ASS!!
And what does P50 mean anyway??

There's a big difference between 16 billion and 4.7 billion!

This is what Proselenes more or less in a more simple way

"Loligo has an estimate of nearly 16 billion barrels of oil, in the event Loligo is ALL oil it is expected there will be 4.7 billion barrels."

That doesn't make any sense????? WTF

P50 means there's a 50% chance ....... therefore P90 is "snowballs" whereas P10 is worth pricking up one's ears

LOL,,,,,thats about it cyners.,.

I would like to think that this is going have more success than Borders and Southern as the drillbit is going through five targets on the way down and the seismic shows up all sorts of things !.....sp has to rise as we go through august.....great opportunity to get onboard at a discount today !....

Fingers crossed for better luck here, I'm not convinced though that FOGL have any better chance of finding oil then BOR did. Anyway we shall see. December Futures are on with guarenteed stops in place.