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Centamin Egypt : Worth waiting for... (CEY)     

pthwaite - 20 Sep 2004 10:27

CEY is a gold mining company operating in Egypt. It was ordered by the Egyptian Government to stop drilling pending a legal dispute brought against the company by a government minister.

Since then, the whole Government cabinet was replaced a few months ago and the minister now in charge of Mining is believed to be positive on Western investment in the country. CEY are pushing for this minister to allow them to continue drilling ASAP; investers are waiting....patiently.

As soon as the company gets the go-ahead to continue drilling, the share price will move north; CEY has plenty of gold in this mine and it is (apparantly) the case of "raking" it out rather than drilling for it!

Check them out...worthy of a punt.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=CEY&Si

gibby - 02 Aug 2011 12:13 - 913 of 2354

agreed - sorry!! :-;
i'll buy back &

Centamin has reported a big increase in quarterly profits up from $19 to $48 million however the uncertainty over Blast inspectors restricting the amount of blasting in the open mines and restrictions on products Centamin needed for production in the last quarter has spooked the market for these shares. Hedge funds and other institutions will be selling these shares in order to buy them back cheaper so take a look at the daily graph to see if it takes a second dip or stabalises. The company has a good production facility it is making profits it has loads of gold reserves and is buying up other gold companies elsewhere all without having to borrow money and most importantly it is debt free. However it is operating in a turbulent country with some factors beyond its control so if you feel brave enough get in while they are cheap a new government election in Egypt in September may solve a few problems.

kimoldfield - 02 Aug 2011 12:16 - 914 of 2354

It all adds to the excitement. Or despair! :o)

hlyeo98 - 02 Aug 2011 13:08 - 915 of 2354

CEY is seriously undervalued now for a gold producer and explorer.

halifax - 02 Aug 2011 13:15 - 916 of 2354

check out their PE ratio and market cap never mind the political risk and lower production forecast.

HARRYCAT - 02 Aug 2011 13:30 - 917 of 2354

Collins Stewart note:
Blasting constraints hit production
Limitations in the supply of explosives slowed progress in Q2, seeing the company cut full year guidance by c.18% to 200-210koz at a $100/oz higher cash costs of $550/oz. Q2 production was 47,991 ounces, up 6% on Q1 and within 4% of our estimate. Cash costs rose sharply to $606/oz, up 15% on Q1 and 11% above our estimate. However a strong sale price of $1545/oz, boosted the financials to deliver an operating profit of $48.2m, 5% above consensus and our estimates, and an EPS of 4.4c/share vs. 3.8/share.

Explosive inspectors to blame:
Production was affected by the supply of blasting product being constrained by government blast inspectors. The company is confident that the issuing of explosives will normalise in Q3, but the lost progress has resulted in the downgrade. The company did start commercial production from the underground and is now expecting lower volumes at higher grades as the mining methods have now been defined.

Centamin has also finally announced the capital cost estimate for the Stage 4 development to 10mtpa of processing capacity of $255m (excluding contingency). This is 42% above the scoping study estimate of $179m (excluding contingency) which at the time didnt include mining equipment. On a like for like basis, this is therefore a 15% increase on the cost estimate for the expansion less mining equipment. The expansion has been approved by the board, with commissioning planned to take place in Q1 2013.

Our Valuation and TP
We have pushed through the updated guidance and capital estimates through our model. This cuts our NPV by 18.5% to $1,990m. Applying our standard multiples of 2x operations and 0.5x the Sukari Phase 4 project, we generate an updated target price of 170p, representing a 17% cut. We continue to recommend the stock as a buy, however with the second cut to guidance this year, we are likely to see continued weakness in the stock in the short term.

gibby - 02 Aug 2011 13:31 - 918 of 2354

yep - i'm having a great day here today - hope you are doing well also

gibby - 02 Aug 2011 13:32 - 919 of 2354

past 112 - only 1 thing for it...

yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

gibby - 02 Aug 2011 13:48 - 920 of 2354

past 114!! plenty more here according to l2 - fill ye boots

aldwickk - 02 Aug 2011 14:29 - 921 of 2354

He who dare's win's , gibbo

halifax - 02 Aug 2011 15:46 - 922 of 2354

yes delboy!

HARRYCAT - 02 Aug 2011 16:09 - 923 of 2354

.

cynic - 02 Aug 2011 16:32 - 924 of 2354

you were very brave chaps but well done, though i hope you have taken at least partial profit

halifax - 02 Aug 2011 16:43 - 925 of 2354

closed at 110p where next ...90p?

HARRYCAT - 02 Aug 2011 16:49 - 926 of 2354

Yes, I agree that more downside to come.

required field - 02 Aug 2011 17:05 - 927 of 2354

Well, I shall go for an optimistic view and I think that the selling was way overdone.....could not watch all day so had to buy when I did, but not complaining... and we will back over 120p soon......anybody checked the price of gold lately ?....

halifax - 02 Aug 2011 17:08 - 928 of 2354

rf the price of gold is not the factor it's CEY's perfomance against targets that matter to investors, they are falling short.

kimoldfield - 02 Aug 2011 17:12 - 929 of 2354

Took profits a little too soon at 113. Not sure which way sp will go this week.

required field - 02 Aug 2011 17:14 - 930 of 2354

Yes, temporarily.....I'm convinced that today was a superb opportunity to jump in "a la" Gibby !

halifax - 02 Aug 2011 17:19 - 931 of 2354

crashed through 50 and 200 dma investors bailing out, too much risk and performance failure.

required field - 02 Aug 2011 17:20 - 932 of 2354

That is what sheep do......I never go by what other people do.....we shall see....watch this rise now.....
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