I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

CitiBank note today:
"Upgrade to Buy — We raise our management fee EPS forecasts by 6%-17%, and set a new DCF-based 186p price target. At this target, Man would trade at 12.0x 2017E PE, a 14% discount to peers. Upgrade to Buy from Neutral/High Risk: Man Group share price volatility has reduced, and so we remove our High Risk rating.
 Yield and Growth — We forecast 14% CAGR 2015-18E in management fee EPS and therefore in DPS too. 10.4c 2016E DPS = 7.1p, i.e. a 4.3% dividend yield. Man offers a strong, growing yield, well covered by total EPS (1.7x 20).
Comfortable with AHL — AHL accounts for 20%-25% FUM and we forecast will generate 35%-40% net revenue 2016E-18E. In this note we take a ‘deep dive’ into AHL and our confidence in a stable flow and returns outlook. We set out Bull (254p) Bear (113p) Base (186p) valuations.
Hidden Value — This confidence in AHL allows us not only to factor fund flow, performance fee and share buyback expectations into our forecasts, but also to turn our attention to GLG, FRM and Numeric for future additional growth potential.
 Regulation — We expect asset managers to face increasing regulatory scrutiny in 2016-2017. We see Man well placed for this, thanks to its strong balance sheet, large size compared to other hedge funds, and its relatively low exposure to those segments of the industry where we expect to see the greatest operational impact.
 Mainstream Future — As hedge fund investing heads for a more mainstream and transparent future, we see larger, managed account and full service providers like Man Group best placed to win fund flows from institutional investors."

StockMarketWire.com
Man Group's funds under management rose by 8% to USD78.7 billion in the year to the end of December.

Gross sales totalled $22.9 billion (2014: $21.9 billion); redemptions totalled $22.6 billion (2014: $18.6 billion) and there were net inflows of $0.3 billion (2014: net inflows $3.3 billion).

Other key points:
- Investment movement of $2.4 billion (2014: $3.6 billion)

- FX translation effects and other movements of -$3.0 billion (2014: -$4.3 billion)

- Acquisition of Silvermine, NewSmith and the BAML fund of hedge funds portfolio completed during the first half of the year, adding $6.1 billion to FUM.

Man reports an adjusted profit before tax of $400 million compared with $481 million in 2014.Statutory PBT fell to $184 million from $384 million).

The proposed final dividend of 4.8 cents per share takes the total dividend for the year to 10.2 cents (2014: 10.1 cents).

Chief executive Manny Roman said: "Against a backdrop of challenging market conditions, 2015 was another year of good progress for Man Group. We have delivered against our strategic objectives, continuing to enhance our investment capabilities through the successful integration of three acquisitions that completed in the first half of the year and the appointment of some high calibre investment managers to the firm. FUM increased by 8% driven by acquisitions and flows were slightly positive in the year with net inflows of $2.9 billion in the second half. "Looking forward, the on-going volatility in the markets in which we operate remains very challenging and, accordingly, the risk appetite of our clients might impact flows. However, we now have a more diversified offering and a range of attractive options for growth, which have strengthened the firm and enhanced our resilience as a business."

Credit Suisse today reaffirms its outperform investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and cut its price target to 170p (from 180p).

Barclays Capital today reaffirms its equal weight investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and cut its price target to 165p (from 177p).

Bloomberg Business:
"Man Group Plc, the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund firm, hired former Millennium Capital Management money manager Abhijeet Gaikwad as it seeks to build a new quantitative-investment unit.
The firm started hiring for the Oxford, England-based “quantitative incubating” unit last month, according to a spokeswoman. Sanatan Rai, who previously worked at BlueCrest Capital Management, has also joined as a money manager.
The unit will give capital to individual money managers to use mathematical models to trade across asset classes. It’s part of Man Group’s $17 billion AHL division that uses computer-driven strategies and is led by Francois Moreau and Jaco Vermaak, according to a person familiar with the matter. Three more money manages are expected to join this year, said the person, asking not to be identified because the information is private.
The Man Group spokeswoman declined to comment on hiring plans.
Man Group managed $78.7 billion in assets at the end of last year and has been hiring money managers to diversify its business. It has benefited from a mounting regulatory burden that’s forcing many traders to abandon plans to start their own funds and instead join existing firms. Investors are also becoming reluctant to give money to startups.
The expansion at AHL is similar to the growth at Man Group’s GLG unit that uses fundamental analysis and has employed more than half a dozen money managers since 2014. It hired former Moore Capital Management LP money managers Rory Hill and Ben Lynch this year, as well as Guillermo Osses, who helped oversee more than $20 billion at HSBC Asset Management."

Ex-divi Thurs 21st April 2016 (3.4p)

StockMarketWire.com
Man Group's funds under management fell to $78.6 billion at the end of March from $78.7 billion at the end of December.

The group reports net inflows in the quarter of $0.5 billion, comprising sales of $5.1 billion and redemptions of $4.6 billion.

Chief executive Manny Roman said: "Against the backdrop of challenging market conditions for the global investment management industry, we have delivered results for the first three months of the year that demonstrate the value and benefits of a diversified business model. Investment performance across our quantitative strategies and net inflows meant that group funds under management remained stable over a highly volatile quarter.

"The ongoing uncertainty in the markets remains challenging and, accordingly, the risk appetite of our clients has the potential to impact flows. However, the ongoing diversification of our business has enhanced our resilience as a firm, and positions us well to navigate the current economic climate. As we have previously indicated, we continue to explore new options for growth, both organically and by acquisition, within our disciplined financial framework."

Other key points: - Net inflows across quant alternative ($1.3 billion) and for quant long only strategies ($0.4 billion), partially offset by;

- Net outflows from discretionary alternative ($0.6 billion), discretionary long only ($0.5 billion), and guaranteed products ($0.1 billion);

- Net flows for fund of fund alternatives flat for the quarter

* Overall investment movement of negative $0.7 billion in the quarter:

- Positive investment performance across AHL's range of strategies, adding $0.8 billion to FUM, more than offset by;

- Negative investment performance for GLG, mainly across their long only strategies, reducing FUM by $1.5 billion;

- Investment performance for Numeric and FRM broadly flat for the quarter

* FX movements of positive $0.8 billion in the quarter, primarily driven by the weakening of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen and Euro

* Other negative movements of $0.7 billion in relation to negative investment exposure adjustments ($0.4 billion) and CLO and guaranteed product maturities ($0.3 billion)

CitiGroup note:
"Since mid-February, AHL Diversified has fallen 13% and we estimate is 15% below performance high water marks. Alpha and Dimension are also down and we estimate are just below high water marks. Only Evolution ($2.9bn of total $19.2bn AHL FUM) remains 4% above high water marks. In contrast, at 31 Mar 16, 71% AHL was at or above high water.
Without AHL, performance fee generation looks challenged. There is little help elsewhere. At 31 Mar 16, 9% performance fee eligible GLG FUM was at high water mark, and the asset weighted relative performance at Numeric was -0.7% Q1. We reduce our Performance Fee PBT forecast from $181m 2016E to $64m. This is the main driver of a new lower $236m 2016E PBT forecast, down 35% from $361m.
Dead Zone Man reports 1H16 results on 26 July. Until then, we are in a news “dead zone” with the only accessible data being fund performance. We expect AHL and GLG performance prints to drive share price direction during this time.
Key Risk: M&A We liked the acquisition of Numeric in 2014, which successfully helped plug an underlying earnings growth gap. With ca. $500m surplus capital and no share buy back this year, Man has firepower to do something similar again. This would be, in our view, the best solution to the fundamentally subdued FUM and earnings growth outlook in Man’s core franchises. But we see execution as unlikely.
Double Downgrade We upgraded Man to Buy in December, reflecting EPS growth, dividend yield, our (incorrect) view that AHL is now less volatile and the potential for Man to become a full service alternative investment solutions provider. We see this still as a potential long term outcome, but believe we were wrong on the rest. AHL volatility and lack of flow or performance elsewhere mean we now forecast -43% YoY EPS 2016E. We see the shares fully valued at 17.3x 2016E PE. We Downgrade to Sell, with a new 120p target, in line with lower EPS forecasts."

Barclays Capital today reaffirms its equal weight investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and set its price target at 145p.

Jefferies International today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and cut its price target to 141p (from 180p).

Barclays Capital today reaffirms its equal weight investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and set its price target at 130p.

Macquarie today downgrades its investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) to neutral (from outperform) and cut its price target to 147p (from 176p).

Citigroup today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and set its price target at 145p.

Man Group, the world's largest listed hedge fund, has had its target price lifted to 155p from 145p by brokerage Societe Generale, which reiterated its 'Buy' rating on the stock.
The rise in target price reflected the brokerage's earnings per share (EPS) adjustments for Man; down 2.7% to 0.098p for full-year 2016, up 5.1% to 0.152p for 2017 and up 6.2% to 0.187p for 2018.
"We upgraded Man to 'Buy' last month ... highlighting the improvement in its risk profile following a change to a largely institutional client base in the last four years," said Societe Generale equity analyst Michael Sanderson.
"Better-than-anticipated net inflows of $1.3bn reflected this," he said in a statement.
Sanderson further noted Man's acquisition of real asset-focused investment manager Aalto was set to bring future accretion.

By Lee Wild | Fri, 18th November 2016 -
Oh Man!

We asked last month whether the worm had turned at hedge fund manager Man Group (EMG). Five weeks and a US presidential election later, and it's still unclear.

However, the share price is up over 20% since the June low, which is enough for finance chief Jonathan Sorrell, who's trousered over £800,000 after selling 639,489 shares at just over 125p a pop.

Recent third-quarter results were OK. Hearing news of a bigger-than-expected increase in third quarter assets under management (AUM) and new share buyback programme, investors chased the shares up around 16%. And they've held up pretty well since.

"The shares are looking cheap, but it looks too early as we may well have further impairments to come from an acquisition policy that has proved ineffective," warned finnCap's respected financials analyst Jeremy Grime. We'll see.

StockMarketWire.com
Investment management business Man Group (EMG) completed the acquisition of Aalto Invest, which held $1.7bn of funds under management as of 30 September.

CEO Luke Ellis said: "We are delighted to have completed the acquisition of Aalto, which is a key step in the development of Man Global Private Markets (Man GPM), our new investment engine for private asset classes, and in the ongoing diversification of Man Group.

"The acquisition of Aalto represents an attractive opportunity for clients, who will have access to longer term investment strategies offering a complementary risk reward profile to our current products."

The company said Aalto will be a central component of the newly formed Man GPM.

It also reported that Aalto founders Mikko Syrjanen and Petteri Barman will become co-heads of Real Assets within Man GPM.


JP Morgan Cazenove today (17/01/17) reaffirms its overweight investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and cut its price target to 150p (from 155p).

Liberum Capital today (24/01/17) reaffirms its buy investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and raised its price target to 148p (from 125p).

StockMarketWire.com
Man Group's funds under management rose by 3% to $80.9bn in the year to the end of December.

The group saw net inflows of $1.9 billion (2015: net inflows $0.3 billion) and quant alternative FUM increased by 20% due to strong net inflows. The group posts a statutory loss before tax of $272 million (2015: profit before tax of $184 million), driven by the impairment of GLG and FRM goodwill and intangibles of $281 million and $98 million respectively. Adjusted profit before tax was $205 million (2015: $400 million), comprising adjusted net management fee PBT of $178 million (2015: $194 million) and adjusted net performance fee PBT of $27 million (2015: $206 million).

The recommended final dividend of 4.5 cents per share brings the total dividend for the year to 9.0 cents (2015: 10.2 cents).

The final dividend is equal to 3.62 pence per share (2015: 3.40 pence), and the total dividend for the year is equal to 7.05 pence per share (2015: 6.87 pence).

Chief executive Luke Ellis said: "2016 was a challenging year for the investment management industry and despite respectable relative performance from our strategies, this is reflected in our results.

"Against this backdrop, we have made real progress in positioning the firm for the future. We delivered positive net flows, in a year when our industry saw out flows. We had positive alpha across our long only strategies, during a year in which many questioned the benefits of active management.

"We put in place a revised management structure and continued to control our cost base, and the majority of our performance fee eligible funds ended the year at, or close to, high water mark.

"Looking forward to 2017, we have started the year with a good pipeline of interest from clients and encouraging performance across most of our strategies as the new global political environment has created many alpha opportunities, but it remains early days in an uncertain market.

"Our focus for 2017 is to build on the hard work of last year and on what makes this business special: the commitment and creativity that drives performance, building deep and meaningful client relationships, investing in our talent and technology, and being disciplined on costs and capital allocation.

"Although our industry faces some challenges, I believe we are well positioned for the years ahead."

Citigroup today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and set its price target at 160p.

Credit Suisse today (27/03/17) reaffirms its outperform investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and set its price target at 195p.

StockMarketWire.com
Man Group's funds under management rose to $88.7bn at the end of March - up from $80.9bn at the end of December.

The group had net inflows in the quarter of $3.0bn, driven by strong inflows into discretionary long only and fund of fund alternatives, and there was a positive investment movement of $2.2bn in the quarter.

Positive FX movements of $0.8min the quarter were primarily driven by the weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and euro.

Chief executive Luke Ellis said: "The first quarter of 2017 has been a strong period for Man Group, with funds under management increasing by 10% to $88.7 billion and growth in each of our investment engines.

"We came into the year with a good pipeline of interest from clients, and that has resulted in net inflows of $3.0 billion in the first three months. Investment performance increased FUM by $2.2 billion for the quarter and the completion of the Aalto acquisition added a further $1.8 billion.

"Looking forward, the global environment has the potential to create alpha opportunities and we see continuing near-term interest from clients.

"However, it is important to recognise that this is only one quarter and, as we have said before, flows are likely to vary on a quarterly basis given the institutional nature of our business."

Numis comment today:
AuM at $88.7bn was 3.6% head of our $85.6bn forecast, principally driven by better than expected net inflows of $3.0bn (our est. $0.5bn). This positive flow surprise was principally driven by $1.4bn flows into GLG Long Only EM Debt strategies and a $1.4bn segregated Fund of Funds client. Management's outlook is simultaneously optimistic ("we continue to see near-term interest from clients") and cautious ("it is important to recognize that this is only one quarter and ... flows are likely to vary on a quarterly basis given the institutional nature of our business"). We expect to make overall small upgrades to our management fee profit forecasts given these better than expected Q1 results (partly offset by marking to market), but would not expect to significantly extrapolate one quarters worth of institutional flows.
There remain many short to medium term uncertainties at Man, including inconsistent performance/performance fees, volatile flows and significant fee margin pressure. We think the short to medium term outlook for the current business is flattish, in terms of the direction of management fee profits. Upside could come from the surplus capital (c.15p/share currently plus the extent of future performance fee profits), which could be distributed and/or used for M&A (provided it is value accretive). We think M&A is more likely than capital returns. Overall we think the shares are broadly fairly valued, balancing the flattish outlook for the business (as measured by management fee profits), with the optionality of the surplus capital."

If we consider the trifling 1,663,466,669 shares in issue here, we must surely sit on the radar of BNY Mellon and Blackrock as an inevitable takeover target, but how long are they going to wait before one of them makes their move!

Low share count + low share price + FUM $88.7 bl = TAKEOVER

INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE 2017

Key points
· Funds under management (FUM)1 of $95.9 billion (31 December 2016: $80.9 billion)
o Net inflows of $8.2 billion (H1 2016: net inflows $1.0 billion)
o Investment movement of $3.8 billion (H1 2016: negative $2.2 billion)
o Aalto acquisition added $1.8 billion
o FX translation and other movements of $1.2 billion (H1 2016: negative $1.1 billion)
· Run rate net management fees1 up 6% to $720 million ($677 million at 31 December 2016)
· 7 basis point reduction in the Group run rate net management fee margin1 compared to 31 December 2016 reflecting strong asset growth in lower margin strategies driving material mix effects at the Group level and in particular two large FRM institutional flows
· Adjusted profit before tax (PBT)1 of $145 million (H1 2016: $98 million), up 48%:
o Adjusted net management fee PBT1 of $94 million (H1 2016: $90 million)
o Adjusted net performance fee PBT1 of $51 million (H1 2016: $8 million)
· Statutory PBT of $76 million (H1 2016: $55 million); reflecting acquired intangibles amortisation ($42 million), charges relating to the movement in the contingent consideration liability ($23 million) and restructuring costs ($4 million)
· Statutory diluted EPS of 3.8 cents (H1 2016: 2.9 cents); Adjusted diluted EPS1,2 of 7.5 cents (H1 2016: 4.9 cents); adjusted diluted management fee EPS1,2 of 5.0 cents (H1 2016: 4.5 cents)
· Completed around $93 million of the $100m share repurchase programme announced on 14 October 2016 equating to 56.2 million shares
· Interim dividend of 5.0 cents per share (H1 2016: 4.5 cents per share), up 11%.

Luke Ellis, Chief Executive Officer of Man, said:
"The first half of 2017 has been one of solid performance with 4% growth in management fee profits and a 48% increase in total adjusted profits as performance fees improved, with positive contributions from across the group. We saw strong inflows from clients during the half and a 19% increase in funds under management with growth across all our investment managers. However our revenue margin has compressed during the half as we have won several large, low margin mandates, meaning our management fees have grown at a much steadier pace.

The first half was unusual in both the scale of net inflows, and the level of margin compression. We would expect both to moderate in the second half, particularly given the uneven nature of institutional flows. As ever, we are committed to seeking opportunities to invest in talent, research and technology. Our priority remains focusing on delivering superior risk adjusted performance for our clients, which will translate into the delivery of value for our shareholders."

Credit Suisse today reaffirms its outperform investment rating on Man Group PLC (LON:EMG) and set its price target at 195p