Recent listing produces iron ore in the Ukraine and has recently stepped up production recent gains suggests this one has further to go dyor..

Taken out a short. Tecnically and fundies look weak at moment.

FXP Ferrexpo

Looks the ideal trade set up here so
just taken it after non farm pay
rolls beat in US.

Fundys sound aswel.



Trades on a forward P/E to just over 5 to 2012
far too cheap.

Ferrexpo PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Edison Investment Research
29-02-12 None 353.07 50.69 4.04 316.74 45.49 4.04
Seymour Pierce
01-02-12 BUY 446.52 64.12 4.28 432.89 62.70 4.48
Evolution Securities Ltd
05-12-11 BUY 432.68 61.30 4.43 453.96 64.28 5.07

2011 2012
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 421.68 60.29 4.28 414.31 59.45 4.57
1 Month Change -5.19 -0.72 -0.02 -7.54 -1.07 -0.04
3 Month Change -0.83 -0.19 0.07 -10.31 -1.97 0.00


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS 505.98% 28.95% -1.39%
DPS -0.49% 0.73% 6.87%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA £349.82m £495.33m £497.75m
EBIT £346.23m £478.13m £459.70m
Dividend Yield 1.34% 1.35% 1.45%
Dividend Cover 11.01x 14.09x 13.00x
PER 6.76x 5.24x 5.31x
PEG 0.01f 0.18f -3.83f
Net Asset Value PS 80.71p 153.88p 212.03p

Hemscott Premium.

Broker upgrade out lunchtime

12:14 FLASH: Numis initiates buy on Ferrexpo, target price 400p

FXPO


Ferrexpo is quality business, which continues to improve, says Numis

3:39 pm by Giles Gwinnett Barker pointed out that Numis conservatively assumed production would grow from 10 million tonnes per year last year to 22 million tonnes per year in 2016 as Yeristovo comes on line FTSE 250 iron ore producer Ferrexpo (LON:FXPO) is a quality business that continues to improve, according to broker Numis, which has initiated coverage on the stock.

The broker begins covering the Ukraine operating firm with a 'buy' stance and 400 pence price target.

Analyst Cailey Barker said the company had one of the largest iron ore reserves in the world at 20 billion tonnes and was looking to grow from its current 10 million tonne per year Poltava mine, known as FPM, with the addition of Yeristovo (FYM) in 2013, and potentially Belanovskoye (FBM) in the future.

"FXPO is a conservative business with a strong track record," said Barker.

"It continues to improve, securing its supply chain with better logistics, upgrading its product quality into high value pellets, and expanding its sales into growth markets."

Barker pointed out that Numis conservatively assumed production would grow from 10 million tonnes per year last year to 22 million tonnes per year in 2016 as Yeristovo comes on line.

FXPO has a strong balance sheet with net debt of around $80mln, and healthy gearing of 6 per cent, the broker believes.

"We expect the company to continue to manage its finances well and remain fully-financed for its expansion plans," said Barker.

Looking at the iron ore market, the analyst added: "Despite recent softening and jitters over Chinese growth, we expect a tight market and strong industrial demand to keep prices buoyant but volatile over the next few years.

"We also expect prices to remain elevated to incentivise development of large scale projects as financing conditions and macroeconomic effects continue to bite."

Barker also noted that the firm was relatively cheap - currently trading below the peer group at around 5.7 times 2012 price/earnings and 2.9 times EV/EBITDA, compared to the group average at 10.3 times and 4.0 times respectively

FXPO Ferrexpo

Brokers like the stock...

Forward P/E of 5.7 2012.... WAY TOO CHEAP.

Ferrexpo PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Numis Securities Ltd
09-03-12 BUY 415.53 58.60 5.08 338.38 47.54 5.08
Edison Investment Research
29-02-12 None 353.07 50.69 4.04 316.74 45.49 4.04
Seymour Pierce
01-02-12 BUY 446.52 64.12 4.28 432.89 62.70 4.48
Evolution Securities Ltd
05-12-11 BUY 432.68 61.30 4.43 453.96 64.28 5.07

2011 2012
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 423.29 60.19 4.62 387.68 55.24 4.80

1 Month Change -3.14 -0.76 0.33 -33.39 -5.18 0.19
3 Month Change 0.78 -0.29 0.41 -36.94 -6.18 0.23


GROWTH
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

Norm. EPS 505.98% 28.74% -8.22%
DPS -0.49% 8.88% 3.85%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) 2011 (E) 2012 (E)

EBITDA £349.82m £486.39m £450.12m
EBIT £346.23m £209.34m £408.35m
Dividend Yield 1.33% 1.45% 1.51%
Dividend Cover 11.01x 13.02x 11.50x
PER 6.82x 5.30x 5.77x
PEG 0.01f 0.18f -0.70f
Net Asset Value PS 80.71p 153.88p 212.03p

Broker Note out.....


Ferrexpo

FTSE 250
Basic Materials
Hold
440
320.3
37.4%
Otkritie Capital

Target SP 440p Upside 37.4%

Going like the clappers today here.

Beat forecasts easily.......

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201203140700192969Z

BRIEF-Ferrexpo 2011 EBITDA climbs 37 percent
14 Mar 2012 - 07:03

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - Ferrexpo PLC :

* Miner Ferrexpo says 2011 EBITDA $801 million versus $585 million

year-ago, up 37 percent

* Miner Ferrexpo says 2011 profit before tax $691 million versus $498

million year-ago

* Miner Ferrexpo says final dividend 3.3 cents per share

* Miner Ferrexpo says growth projects progressng as planned, first ore

from FYM end of 2012

* Says market prices for iron ore have moderated so far in 2012, believes they

will be above average historic levels

((London Equities Newsroom; +44 20 7542 7717))

UPDATE 1-Ferrexpo 2011 profit climbs 37 pct, costs rise
14 Mar 2012 - 07:38

(Adds detail, background)

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - Ukrainian iron ore producer Ferrexpo posted a 37 percent rise in core profit, at the higher end of expectations, thanks to strong prices and higher sales volumes that helped offset rising costs.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) jumped to $801 million, compared to forecasts of $772 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Profit before tax rose 39 percent to $691 million.........

Ferrexpo, the Ukraine-focused iron ore pellet producer, managed to maintain production levels in the first half but is still struggling with tough price conditions.

Production at the group’s Poltava mine for the six months to the end of June was 4.7m tonnes of pellets against 4.8m in the same period of last year.

Revenues came in at $731m, down 15% on the first half of 2011, while profits before tax were 52% lower at $169m.

The interim dividend has been maintained at 3.3 cents per share.

Ferrexpo’s Chairman, Michael Adams said: "...the iron ore market has been volatile with market prices for iron ore down 20%.

"Ferrexpo, however, has continued to enjoy solid demand for its pellets with the average pellet price for the period down by only 12%. Lower pricing combined with higher raw material costs has reduced profits from the record level of 2011.”

It is all about the price of iron ore.
Iron ore has dropped in price significantly recently.
See web site "indexmundi.com".
When iron ore price improve, so will FXPO, but may take a few months.

FXPO is a share I really like, and I think is very cheap,
but it all comes back to iron ore price.
One to watch and buy into when life improves

I've shorted this yesterday at 180p when support broken.

Looks like it will be moving lower again ... now 160p

148p now.

Not too sure but I suspect they'll need to raise if they've lost the money in the bank that is in receivership. As ever the short vultures are onto this in a big way sensing blood. Sorry for all holders, always thought it was a sell just based on iron ore price declines.

Best to sell imo.

says it all about iron ore demand falling away...

http://news.sky.com/story/1554951/teesside-steel-plant-to-pause-operations

Off another 25% today sorry for all holders.

nothing to do with price of iron ore, but the very dodgy bank which they were using has gone into liquidation ..... if i saw the story correctly, this bank is owned by the chairman of fxpo