http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

rf
please dont take it personally or let it upset your equilibrium. it dont matter.we all of us make mistakes and get things wrong and i should know.it really dont matter.its early days yet.more important things in life,think about it.
regards and good luck to you
jkd

jkd

I think my point was that many call a stock as having run its course, ie, RKH at 140p, without considering the ramifications of what exactly is propelling the SP. My analogy was CNE which increased nearly 10 fold once resources had been proven.

pth

pth
it seems we agree then.My analagy between rkh and des has an equivalent price of getting above 100sh for rkh which equates to 130sh to des.Nice to see we also agree on that most important point about "once resources have been PROVEN". although i do admit i use this very same terminology in respect of price action. after all i am a chartist and not a geoligist.
regards to you.
jkd

Do you no RKH shares were 24p this time last year.......happy days

even this miserable old bastard's not complaining .... indeed, rkh's strike came just in the nick of time for me when things were very gloomy indeed

old maybe...... miserable ......deffinately....the other.......never....lol

I will be topping up tomorrow. This will reach 1000p.

At close of todays prices you have :


FOGL - Market Cap of 262 million pounds.

FOGL has no oil, no discoveries and if their next drill is a duster the price will be slaughtered. They are drilling in late May. FOGL has potential upside probably 4 times as great as DES. Although oil is found in the North, it does not mean any will be found in the South.



DES - Market Cap of 302 million pounds.

DES has no oil, they have a gas discovery that has no classification. They are drilling around September. If the next drill is a duster they will be slaughtered for having 2 dusters in a row. Just because RKH found oil in their area does not mean DES will in their licenses.




RKH - Market Cap of 381 millions pounds.

RKH has a gas discovery (Johnson) that is classed in the CR category. Potential up to 7 Tcf GIP. RKH also now has an oil discovery (Sea Lion), one which has ticked all the boxes (oil/permeability/porosity) and will flow. Likely between 220M to 450M barrels of oil recoverable, confirmation and inklings on size will follow. Flow test could well be ahead of Ernest spud, however, even if their next drill Ernest happens first and its a duster you still have an oil discovery that is likely worth way above the present market cap. RKH will flow test Sea Lion and/or drill Ernest after the rig finishes with FOGL and before the next DES drill. Sea Lion Flow test good and data released should see another 300% to 500% from todays prices.

(Flow tested 220M find could be worth about 774p a share, Flow tested 450M find could be worth about 1552p a share - based on a notional 8.5 US$ a barrel value.


IMO Rockhopper remains the stock to carry most of your Falklands weighting, and if you do not have any its the place to start building one. Risk is significantly reduced and its a sensible place to have a holding ahead of the next developments. FOGL is very high risk but with very high potential rewards, massively much more than RKH or DES, the downside being that should the FOGL drill be a duster FOGL's share price will be devastated. DES risk is reduced somewhat by RKH finding oil however they could easily have bad license areas so will have a large quesiton mark over them until they hit something like RKH did.

Based on the above and the presently not very high market cap of RKH considering what they have, it remains why I have not sold any RKH, am not going to sell any RKH for many months yet as a minimum, likely years, and will add more should there be (and there will be) price dips ahead on other people profit taking.

This is like being able to buy into the first companies that discovered North Sea oil, right at the very starting point, which means it holds the potential to deliver some whopping gains over the coming years.

Thats IMO and as always DYOR !

came back yesterday from 276, so with no new news can see it staying around 2 - 2.50 and possibly dropping further.

will almost certainly (s)tumble first thing this morning as market set to open 75 or more down

Opened and straight into auction.

.

No, this is time to top up if it slip slightly

looks to be holding above 200 fairly easily, which all things considered, is pretty good going

Another ramp for RF

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a83293dc-5c95-11df-bb38-00144feab49a.html

Rockhopper jumps 50%
By Neil Hume and Bryce Elder

Published: May 11 2010 03:00 | Last updated: May 11 2010 03:00

Rockhopper Exploration continued its remarkable run, rising 51 per cent to 219p after another update from its Sea Lion well near the Falkland Islands.

Rockhopper, which now has a market value of 380m, said the initial results of logging indicated a good reservoir and an update on oil quality would be provided once laboratory analysis is complete.

"This is further encouraging news and continues to derisk the discovery," said Richard Rose of Oriel Securities, who reckons the find could be worth as much as 610p a share.

The update from Rockhopper also aided Desire Petroleum , which is exploring in the same basin. Its shares rose 37.7 per cent to 95p.

No way RKH is going to fall

The Times article fails to point out that the Richard Rose 610p is based on pre-drill estimates of 28 meters of net oil pay from a single column delivering 170M barrels recoverable.

Why did they not point out that its based on the low end pre-drill.

As opposed to post drill 53 meters of net oil pay in two columns, with estimates of 220 to 450M barrels recoverable and price of 770p to 1550p.

Never mind...... ;) haha I think we know why they failed to point that out, its cause many are still buying and buying lots....

keep ramping pro....

New strategy from me.

Given DES and RKH both sunk badly on spudding news all the way through drilling it seems sure there are lots of people with lots of FOGL who will start selling as the drill spuds and sell all the way to results.

Therefore I have sold off some lumps of FOGL (and a small amount of DES) and put that into RKH.

The new strategy is for Falklands weighting for me is 90% RKH and 5% FOGL and 5% DES.

(Given I have sold a lump I will be interested to see if FOGL does the same as DES and RKH and slumps down from drill starting news......)

sells nearly equal to buys now.