http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

from ...... proactive investors - Monday, November 23, 2009

FD Capital raises Gulf Keystone target to 200p after latest Shaikan-1 oil discovery announcement

Broker Fox-Davies Capital (FD-Capital) noted the latest discovery announcement from Iraq and Algeria operating Gulf Keystone Petroleum (AIM: GKP), calling its Shaikan-1 well in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq unstoppable and increasing its target for the company to nearly double the current price.

The additional Triassic discovery from the well was announced this morning with reported flow rates of 10,000 boepd (barrels of oil equivalent per day), resulting in an aggregate actual test rate of 20,000 boepd from the Jurassic tests done thus far in Shaikan-1.

The company has previously reported test results from the Jurassic zone, where tests indicated production of 7,000 boepd, bringing the cumulative production potential of the two zones to 31,000 boepd. IN todays statement Gulf Keystone noted that it had discovered over 10,000 metres of oil column and over 200 metres of net pay, having tested less than 30% of the net pay zones.

FD Capital products this aggregate potential to rise significantly as the company undertakes longer term well tests that will be conducted after the drilling rig leaves location in the first half of 2010.

On the back of those tests, the STOIIP (stock tank oil initially in place) estimates for the Triassic section were raised from 0.5Bbbl (billion barrels) to 0.5-1.5 Bbbl, while the recovery factor was upped to 50% from 40% due to the high oil density, compared to the recovery factor of 18% for the Jurassic portion of the reservoir, resulting in an aggregate recovery of 28% from the 4.4 Bbbl STOIIP.

The broker left the probability of success estimate unchanged at 67% for Shaikan-1 and 50% for the companys other three licenses. The impact of the resource revision is about 26 pence.

FD Capital said it remained very positive on Gulf Keystone, retaining its buy recommendation for the stock and raising its target price for the company to 200 pence, compared to the stocks current trading price of 110 pence.

from ......proactive investors
GKP
Monday, November 23, 2009

Gulf Keystone Petroleum flows 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from second test in Triassic Zone

Kurdistan focused exploration and production oil junior, Gulf Keystone Petroleum (AIM: GKP, ADR: GFKSY)(Gulf Keystone) were on the move again this morning after the company reported further results from the hugely successful Shaikan-1 Exploration Well.

Shares in Gulf Keystone rose 3.5% in early deals, and have risen as much a 2500% from their 52 week low of just 5 pence per share. Shares in the company are currently trading hands at around 112 pence, just below the all time high of 124 pence.

The phenomenal share price performance has been driven by the success of the Shaikan-1 Well, where the company today confirmed that it had now reached total depth of 2950 meters in the Triassic Zone.

In the Triassic Zone, Gulf Keystone completed a second test of the zone, and reported production of 6000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) of 53 to 55 degree API oil and 21 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (mmscf/d), or approximately 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). The company also noted that surface restrictions and down hole tool problems severely limited the first test of the Triassic discovery. Gulf Keystone stated that the test data collected in the first test indicated that the first Triassic zone could have flowed at up to 14,000 boepd.

Taking the first zone analysis in conjunction with the second zone reported today, the company could see production rates of about 24,000 boepd. ..................

proactive investors

GKP, HOIL, ans SEY should all be valued at least 50% - 75% more, if they did not have to tolerate the idiots in Bagdad. Maybe the Bagdad Ministers etc are waiting for and expecting some " baksheesh ", which as we all know is the usual thing for sweetening deals in the middle east ?
I know i have worked there and paid it out on behalf of the company I worked for.

GKP
i have and do, and you're talking bollocks ...... the problem with kurdistan is much more deep-seated and complex than lack of grease on palms ...... that said, there is no doubt that in the fullness of time, the issue will be resolved, as in the long run, iraq needs the oil revenue as does kurdistan, if one accepts that it is a quasi-autonomous entity in the first place - ah, there's the nub!

SEO
surely you meant 50/75% less, not more?

HOIL
Not sure at all why the new deal they have accepted is seen as so detrimental to them, but no doubt someone will tell us

I always talk bollocks..... don't need latin to do that!! rightly or wrongly had a little topup on gkp.. think you've miss read sey for seo wake up cynic.

Hi Cynic

GKP - Kurdistan Regional Government should, with the backing of the Americans go for complete independance, but definitely not based on any ethnic grounds i.e. Arabs versus Kurds. That is the war we should have been in !! Shocking stuff ?
Although they first should try to get full control of the Kirkuk oil field if possible, if not then they should still go for independance. What has Bagdad ever done for Kurdistan ?????

SEY - I know you don't like this one, but it may come very good - They will start drilling in mid December, so we shall soon know. They do have oil seepages on the surface at several locations ????

HOIL - I don't really trust this one at the moment, but I agree with you. If all that is planned and written transpires HOIL will be an Oil Major soon. I can not understand why it's gone down. Does somebody know something we don't. ????

Trouble with shares is that logic does not prevail - Most of the miners are said to be overvalued, and on ridiculous PE's but they still go up

sorree ..... yes i did indeed misread - too much AD sun ..... it's really SEO which is such a load of shit .... SEY just may come good at some point


without getting bogged down, i'll just comment that of course iraq is like a girl band - just cobbled together for effect at the time! ..... it's just an artificial conglomerate of assorted states that was put together, i think i am right in saying, by external powers for purely political reasons ..... the kurds have had a bad time for a centuries, firstly from the turks and now from the other guys - but of course they now have oil

Kurdish Oil Gushing, Gulf Keystone Says
Published on November 24, 2009

by EU News Network

(EUNewsNet.com and OfficialWire)

ERBIL, IRAQ



Estimated reserves of light crude oil from Iraqi Kurdistan are greater than even the most optimistic expectations, said Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd.

Gulf Keystone announced an additional discovery in its Shaikan-1 well in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Initial discoveries at Shaikan-1, in the northern Kurdish province of Dahuk, were announced Aug. 6.

Its most recent discovery yielded a flow rate of 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, bringing the total test rate to 20,000 boe per day in Shaikan-1.

Gulf Keystone said combined reserves in the region could bring the aggregate rate to about 24,000 boe per day.

"Shaikan-1 has exceeded the most optimistic prognosis held at the start of drilling," said Todd Kozel, executive chairman at Gulf Keystone.

The company said it has tested less than 30 percent of the Dahuk development, noting the capacity could reach 31,000 boe per day of aggregate production.

Time to top up then??

Red line = 25 dma
Green line = 50 ema

Impossible to predict but if you take a look at FTSE + FTSE 250 thread then this could return to 20-30p if market conditions dictate. I for one wouldn't touch it with a barge pole atm.

Sorry to be gloomy!

you wish!!

Nope, I'm not short of anything but long in far too much!

Broker note from Evolution:
"While Shaikan-1 has continued to surprise on the upside, the drilling is now complete and we do not see material upside until Shaikan 2 starts in mid 2010. Switch to Sterling Energy where drilling on Sangaw North starts soon.
DETAILS The light oil and higher pressure in the Triassic in Shaikan-1 is a positive sign. The DSTs to date have been encouraging with the company indicating total well potential of >30,000 b/d. There may be even deeper potential, but the well has now reached TD and we do not expect major positive newsflow until mid 2010.
VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION Our valuation of the reserves in Kurdistan is conservative and we still risk the chance of success at 50%. Based on the largest oil in place number revealed to date (5.3bn) and a 33% recovery factor we arrive at a risked value of Shaikan of 86p/share and 93p/share for the whole company. "

So who is right?:

FD Capital said it remained very positive on Gulf Keystone, retaining its buy recommendation for the stock and raising its target price for the company to 200 pence, compared to the stocks current trading price of 110 pence.

92p or so at the moment, but has everybody forgotten about the 2 other blocks plus a possible disposal of the Algerian assets soon...so there should be more news flow before year's end.....at the moment profit taking has been going on....did so myself the other day...but this is one hell of a successful drilling campaign so far and a lot more to follow soon.

MMs have panicked quite a few in to selling. Great drilling results do not warrant such a reaction. Would expect a bounce from here!

Thank you!! have been so temped to sell whilst in profit BUT the thought of a possible bid coming plus RF's points above have made me hold off.... will wait fingers crossed. If DD is right i'll not be happy..BB

Balerboy.

I genuinely hope for both our sakes I'm not.

I wouldn't touch this one either for the foreeable future, as to EVO recommeding a switch to the highly diluted Sterling Energy (where a best case result could push the so to 6 or 7 p), they have to be joking, but then they are the house broker so I suppose they would pump their own companies.

(aimo make your own minds up.)

what do brokers know anyhow!!!! cheers