http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

GKP, HOIL, ans SEY should all be valued at least 50% - 75% more, if they did not have to tolerate the idiots in Bagdad. Maybe the Bagdad Ministers etc are waiting for and expecting some " baksheesh ", which as we all know is the usual thing for sweetening deals in the middle east ?
I know i have worked there and paid it out on behalf of the company I worked for.

GKP
i have and do, and you're talking bollocks ...... the problem with kurdistan is much more deep-seated and complex than lack of grease on palms ...... that said, there is no doubt that in the fullness of time, the issue will be resolved, as in the long run, iraq needs the oil revenue as does kurdistan, if one accepts that it is a quasi-autonomous entity in the first place - ah, there's the nub!

SEO
surely you meant 50/75% less, not more?

HOIL
Not sure at all why the new deal they have accepted is seen as so detrimental to them, but no doubt someone will tell us

I always talk bollocks..... don't need latin to do that!! rightly or wrongly had a little topup on gkp.. think you've miss read sey for seo wake up cynic.

Hi Cynic

GKP - Kurdistan Regional Government should, with the backing of the Americans go for complete independance, but definitely not based on any ethnic grounds i.e. Arabs versus Kurds. That is the war we should have been in !! Shocking stuff ?
Although they first should try to get full control of the Kirkuk oil field if possible, if not then they should still go for independance. What has Bagdad ever done for Kurdistan ?????

SEY - I know you don't like this one, but it may come very good - They will start drilling in mid December, so we shall soon know. They do have oil seepages on the surface at several locations ????

HOIL - I don't really trust this one at the moment, but I agree with you. If all that is planned and written transpires HOIL will be an Oil Major soon. I can not understand why it's gone down. Does somebody know something we don't. ????

Trouble with shares is that logic does not prevail - Most of the miners are said to be overvalued, and on ridiculous PE's but they still go up

sorree ..... yes i did indeed misread - too much AD sun ..... it's really SEO which is such a load of shit .... SEY just may come good at some point


without getting bogged down, i'll just comment that of course iraq is like a girl band - just cobbled together for effect at the time! ..... it's just an artificial conglomerate of assorted states that was put together, i think i am right in saying, by external powers for purely political reasons ..... the kurds have had a bad time for a centuries, firstly from the turks and now from the other guys - but of course they now have oil

Kurdish Oil Gushing, Gulf Keystone Says
Published on November 24, 2009

by EU News Network

(EUNewsNet.com and OfficialWire)

ERBIL, IRAQ



Estimated reserves of light crude oil from Iraqi Kurdistan are greater than even the most optimistic expectations, said Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd.

Gulf Keystone announced an additional discovery in its Shaikan-1 well in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Initial discoveries at Shaikan-1, in the northern Kurdish province of Dahuk, were announced Aug. 6.

Its most recent discovery yielded a flow rate of 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, bringing the total test rate to 20,000 boe per day in Shaikan-1.

Gulf Keystone said combined reserves in the region could bring the aggregate rate to about 24,000 boe per day.

"Shaikan-1 has exceeded the most optimistic prognosis held at the start of drilling," said Todd Kozel, executive chairman at Gulf Keystone.

The company said it has tested less than 30 percent of the Dahuk development, noting the capacity could reach 31,000 boe per day of aggregate production.

Time to top up then??

Red line = 25 dma
Green line = 50 ema

Impossible to predict but if you take a look at FTSE + FTSE 250 thread then this could return to 20-30p if market conditions dictate. I for one wouldn't touch it with a barge pole atm.

Sorry to be gloomy!

you wish!!

Nope, I'm not short of anything but long in far too much!

Broker note from Evolution:
"While Shaikan-1 has continued to surprise on the upside, the drilling is now complete and we do not see material upside until Shaikan 2 starts in mid 2010. Switch to Sterling Energy where drilling on Sangaw North starts soon.
DETAILS The light oil and higher pressure in the Triassic in Shaikan-1 is a positive sign. The DSTs to date have been encouraging with the company indicating total well potential of >30,000 b/d. There may be even deeper potential, but the well has now reached TD and we do not expect major positive newsflow until mid 2010.
VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION Our valuation of the reserves in Kurdistan is conservative and we still risk the chance of success at 50%. Based on the largest oil in place number revealed to date (5.3bn) and a 33% recovery factor we arrive at a risked value of Shaikan of 86p/share and 93p/share for the whole company. "

So who is right?:

FD Capital said it remained very positive on Gulf Keystone, retaining its buy recommendation for the stock and raising its target price for the company to 200 pence, compared to the stocks current trading price of 110 pence.

92p or so at the moment, but has everybody forgotten about the 2 other blocks plus a possible disposal of the Algerian assets soon...so there should be more news flow before year's end.....at the moment profit taking has been going on....did so myself the other day...but this is one hell of a successful drilling campaign so far and a lot more to follow soon.

MMs have panicked quite a few in to selling. Great drilling results do not warrant such a reaction. Would expect a bounce from here!

Thank you!! have been so temped to sell whilst in profit BUT the thought of a possible bid coming plus RF's points above have made me hold off.... will wait fingers crossed. If DD is right i'll not be happy..BB

Balerboy.

I genuinely hope for both our sakes I'm not.

I wouldn't touch this one either for the foreeable future, as to EVO recommeding a switch to the highly diluted Sterling Energy (where a best case result could push the so to 6 or 7 p), they have to be joking, but then they are the house broker so I suppose they would pump their own companies.

(aimo make your own minds up.)

what do brokers know anyhow!!!! cheers

My aim stocks have taken a knock today, but ftse is up 40 points or so ...weird !.

hope the slip does not persit......and up early today.....KDD could shoot up.....
morning all