Star Energy is currently testing the Avington well in Southern England.
This will take about 4 weeks an RNS news feed said, it started on 25/06/06.

I hope it proves positive so we get a good share price rise!
We are 5% holders but i'm not sure how much in pence potential this is worth for the company.

Another good reason to hold on to this share.

Max buy yesterday 80,000 shares, max buy today 25,000 shares. Free float running low.

Tip for 2011 from The Times.

Tempus Tips for 2011

* BHP Billiton, BG, Northern Petroleum, Catlin Group, Tullett Prebon, Intermediate Capital Group, Cookson Group, Capita, F&C Asset Management and e2v technologies.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/new-year-papers-estonia-joins-crisis-hit-euro-club-others-wary-business-money-and-tips/a460082/full

Goldman Sachs Note from November 2010 where they initiated coverage with a 189p target, with the initial one prospect(of six if I remember corretcly) offshore Italy offering 500% upside potential on that. Italy drilling decision has to be made by Shell by end of March. Goldman Sachs have put Q3 2011 as the drilling date, therefore NOP could be 189p+500% = 9.45 in 2011.

Source of opportunity
Northern Petroleum offers, in our view, an attractive combination of strong core value in the Netherlands, and the possibility for high-impact exploration in the longer term. We believe that the companys producing and discovered gas assets in the Netherlands and other core value gives 93% upside to the current share price,
before accounting for liquidity adjustments, and that the stock is therefore inexpensive. There are exploration catalysts in the Netherlands too, which we believe could add 10% to our valuation over the next 2-3 years. The real potential in our view, however, lies in the companys assets in Italy where it holds a number of offshore exploration licences with substantial potential. West of Sicily, the company has brought in Shell as a partner which gives a degree of credibility to the play, while in the South Adriatic Sea the company currently is 100% owner. We are cautious on the ability to monetize oil resources in Italy, noting the difficulties that companies have had in sanctioning assets such as Tempa Rossa and give the companys Italian oil assets a 75% political risking on top of the required geological risking. (We note that the company is confident the recent ban on drilling in Italian waters within five nautical miles of the coast should have limited or no effect on its prospects as they are further offshore than the areas the ban impacts.) In the event that exploration is successful, and the resource can be monetized, the potential is vast: success for one of the companys assets in the West of Sicily would add almost 500% to our valuation. The companys 1.25% stake in Tullows exploration block in Guyana is also of potential interest, despite the stake being small, as it offers large volumes and the potential for follow-on drilling in the event of success. We initiate coverage of the company with a Buy rating and a price target of 189p.

Catalyst
Continued growth from the companys assets in the Netherlands is a relatively low risk catalyst. We expect the prospect in Guyana to be drilled in the coming months. We do not expect significant activity in Italy in the near term, but the approach of drilling in the country should also help share price performance.

Valuation
Our 12-month SOTP price target is calculated using a US$85/bl assumed oil price. We include risked value for two prospects in the West of Sicily licence in Italy but apply a 75% political risking on top of geological risk, and also apply a 50% discount to these catalysts as we expect them to be drilled later than 12 months from now.

Key risks
Key downside risks to our view and target price are a weakening of the European gas price, cost overruns and delays in the development of the companys assets in the Netherlands or delays in exploration and sanctioning activities in Europe.

Page 250
http://www.mediafire.com/?i5bdmxxpmo6tm16

This applies to all oil companies, but just from NOP's view it means greater revenues in 2011, which leads to an increased valuation as the market continually prices in the oil price rise. Golman Sachs valuation is 189p based on $85 a barrel, yet 2011 looks to have an average near 25% higher than that, suggesting the NOP valuation for 2011 should be 25% higher at 236p

"The forecasts for oil, like the outlook for the US economy, are almost universally positive. A double digit oil price is a thing of 2010, in 2011 expectations are centering on a price closer to $110, probably higher. Already weve seen comments out of the OPEC that the global economy can cope with an oil price of $100, so dont be surprised if the oil cartel begins to increase its price target."

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Gold-oil-copper-silver-iron-ore-commodities-metals-pd20101231-CMTTN?OpenDocument

Excluding the huge 945p potential of Italy I have done a couple of charts to show how long it should take to get to 2 per share, with and without the Golden Cross effect. The difference is that without the Golden Cross effect the stock should take 6 months longer to reach 2. This is why the Golden Cross is such an important very bullish indicator.

P.S. The MA's I have used are 50EMA and 200EMA. The 50SMA has also now crossed above the rising 200SMA as a confirmation of the Golden Cross.

Interview with Gazprom Chief Alexei Miller

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,737443,00.html

Northern Petroleum - Times tip of the year
January 03, 2011

Amid a dull selection of blue chips published today Martin "Taliban" Waller has picked Northern Petroleum as one of his ten tips of the year for The Times Tempus column. Normally such an endorsement would be a good sell signal but on this occassion I am at one with Waller - Northern was one of my 7 resource tips of the year for 2011. At 109p the t1ps Growth Fund ( which owns shed loads already) is likely to be buying more next week. Target price 350p.

Tom Winnifrith

http://www.jpjshare.com/content/News/11-01-03/Northern_Petroleum_-_Times_tip_of_the_year.aspx

Martin Waller is Deputy City Editor at The Times

"when the forecast net production of over 2,250 barrels of oil a day once Wijk en Aalburg is on-stream is achieved, we will have reached a good base for advancing overall growth of the group."
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/21431/northern-petroleum-starts-production-at-third-netherlands-field-21431.html

Well that would be right now then wouldn't it!

"Northern announces that production has started from the at Wijk en Aalburg gas field in The Netherlands. The forecasted contracted gross gas sales volume from the Wijk en Aalburg field is 150,000 normal cubic meters per day (5.6 million standard cubic feet per day or 963 barrels of oil equivalence per day (boepd), 433 boepd net to Northern), which brings Northerns daily production capacity to the higher end of our forecasted 2200 - 2300 boepd."
http://www.northpet.com/news/detail/2010/12/fourth-new-netherlands-gas-field-put-into-production


So NOP is now at "a good base for advancing overall growth of the group"

Going well today, up 10p, more to come methinks ;)

Current shareprice seems way under priced compared to analyst forcasts. 2 by Christmas ?

robnickson, your target is a bit low?

Here is how I think it will pan out. I am referring to recent posts on here so go back and look if you want more info on any of the points:

Current SP should be 196p according to Goldman Sachs, this is at $85 a barrel. The consensus expected 2011 average for oil is around 25% higher, which would lead to an increased valuation on NOP to 235p
t1ps.com have a 'buy up to 145p with a 350p target' recommendation
NOP is a 'Tip for 2011' from The Times
3 brokers are listed on Digital Look, all have 'strong buy' for NOP
Matrix analysts have a 170p target
http://gecr.co.uk/ have a 314p target

Results from MW1 should be in within a week or two, if they hit 35m to 60m barrels and a producer it will be seen as big news for NOP.

Tullow are drilling Guyana in Q1. The oilfield is expected to be similar to the nearby Jubilee field which is running at 58,000 bpd rising soon to 120,000 bpd. If Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5% to 65% increase on its production today. See post 90.

Based upon the above the NOP SP should easily pass 2 by the end of Q1.

Also by the end of Q1 Shell Italia MUST make a decision on drilling the Thrust and Fold belt offshore Italy, targeting 1Bn+ barrels of oil. Goldman Sachs have pencilled in Q3 2011 for the drilling.

Based on Shell Italia going ahead with drilling in Q3 2011, the SP should rise rapidly on the announcement and continue rising as the date nears for the spudding in Q3.

Goldman Sachs have valued a successful oil strike on a producer of 1Bn barrels as being worth 500% on their valuation of 196p, taking it to 945p. Allowing for the 25% higher oil price the valuation would increase to 1181p

So by the time Shell Italia are drilling the Thrust and Fold belt in Q3, the NOP SP should be speculatively bought up to at least 4 per share, leaving room for a double or treble for those already in, if they hit 1Bn+ barrels of producible oil as expected.

Digital Look Analysts, 3 strong buy and very bullish figures for 2011/2012. None of them will have included anything for Italy yet.

This thread is turning into a one man ramping campaign!

Wow, someone else is reading!

I keep telling myself to buy more NOP, but I need to keep putting it all down in writing to convince myself ;)

NOP Gloden Cross just completed. Its on the way up now.

ptholden are you on about tom or TA because tom has rampted this for years

markymar, he/she was on about me!

Tom has been bullish on NOP and still is(350p target). Until now NOP has remained undervalued, but NOW is the time for NOP to become a star. You only have to look at the last four RNS, then add the speculative buying that will come with Shell Italia drilling the 1Bn+ barrel field and you will see it. About 5 or 6 broker/analysts now have NOP as a strong buy or they have a much higher price target, its too late to go picking on tom at this stage.

Going well today. Looking for a close above 130p for a 10-month breakout. If not today then I am confident it will get there tomorrow.

Nice progress today, moving like a rocket, playing catch up !