Up 10% today any interest.

Fox Davies Capital

Monday, Feb 28 2011 by Fox Davies Capital

Oil & Gas Corporate News

Bowleven (LON:BLVN) (BUY, 4.50) (BLVN, 335.5p, ▲ (2.52%))

announced that drilling has commenced on the Sapele-1 sidetrack (Sapele-1ST), Douala Basin, offshore Cameroon with the Noble Tommy Craighead jack-up rig.

The principal objective of Sapele-1ST is to appraise the Deep Omicron oil discovery encountered in the Sapele-1 exploration well.

The well is to be drilled to an estimated vertical depth of circa 3,682m or 4,761m measured depth, approximately 2 km South East from the Deep Omicron oil discovery in the original vertical well. Drilling is expected to take approximately 40 to 50 days (excluding testing).

The Vantage Sapphire jack-up rig has now been contracted and consequently the Sapele-2 well is expected to spud mid-March 2011 as a material step-out down dip from the Sapele-1 location.

Comment: This sidetrack is a very important well as it will appraise the only oil leg found in Sapele-1. We remain positive on the prospectivity of the Douala basin.

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/fox-davies-capital-update-featuring-avocet-mining-norseman-gold-solomon-gold-stratex-tanzanite-one-bowleven-empyrean-energy-ithaca-energy-xcite-energy-54423/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.fox-davies.com/media/346674/blvnflashnotemar022011.pdf

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201103180700091647D

Report from McCall Aitken McKenzie & Co:

Bowleven (BLVN LN / BLVN.L) Buy
Ahead of Bowlevens H1 numbers on Monday 28 we take the
opportunity to reiterate our positive view on the stock and update our
target price to 418p.
Underlying the value in the portfolio are the recent results of the
Sapele-1 well confirming hydrocarbon presence across the
Cretaceous interval and possibly opening up a hydrocarbon column in
the Tertiary. Contracting of the Vantage Sapphire rig will allow
testing of these deeper, high pressure intervals.
The Deep Omicron (76p/sh risked; 109p/sh unrisked) interval has
attracted the most interest as an oil discovery, recently upgraded to
225mmbls STOIIP. We have assumed a 30% recovery rate for oil and
70% for gas in our resource base.
The Lower Omicron has yet to be conclusively appraised in terms of
the presence of oil or gas. We attribute a 50:50 value to each case in
our valuation leaving a further 24.5p/sh risked upside/downside in the
case of oil or gas respectively.
The MLHP-7 Isongo field also provides significant support to our
valuation, the majority of this in the IF oil field and IE gas/condensate
fields. Both are the subject of a joint development plan, pending
approval, along with a Vitol option for a further 10% and potential
government back-in of 20%. We assume that both of these are
exercised in our 136p/sh risked, 194p unrisked valuation of the IE
development.
The company has already announced a cash figure in the region of
$190m at 31st December which leaves it with a large funding pile for
the further wells on the Sapele field and pre-development of the IE/IF
fields.
The main risks to this view come in the form of disappointing results
in the upcoming Sapele appraisal campaign along with problems on
the Isongo field development. It should be noted that Bowleven has
yet to confirm that it will retain the Etinde permit beyond its expiry at
the end of 2011 although we expect this will be cleared up in due
course.
Activity in the area is picking up with Noble expecting first oil in
2012 and 2013 from two developments. Add to this Victorias
development drilling in Logbaba and Perencos drilling onshore
Gabon and the confidence in the Douala basin is clear. MLHP-7 sits
in the Rio del Rey basin where the company has managed to attract
one the worlds largest energy traders in Vitol.
On the financial performance front there is little room for surprise
given the lack of production and with funding in place for the
upcoming drilling programme we

HIGHLIGHTS

Operational

-- Sapele-1 exploration well targeting multiple stacked objectives delivered positive results:
o Significant prospectivity of the Douala Basin confirmed;
o Two potentially significant oil and gas condensate discoveries made in the Tertiary interval at Sapele-1;
o Presence of hydrocarbons in the Cretaceous, offshore Douala Basin confirmed.
-- Drilling on the Sapele-1ST (sidetrack) and Sapele-2 appraisal wells progressing on schedule.
-- P50 contingent resources for the Group increased by 31% to 213 mmboe (net) after incorporating initial Sapele-1 Tertiary results.
-- Multi-well drilling programme targeting both Tertiary and Cretaceous prospectivity is underway; forward programme is expected to evolve as drilling activity progresses.
-- Seismic coverage expanded over the Etinde and Bomono Permits in Cameroon; evaluation of further exploration upside is ongoing.
-- IE-3 appraisal well, offshore Cameroon, tested cumulative maximum rate of around 23,000 boepd; appraisal activities on the IE and IF discoveries are progressing.

Corporate

-- Successfully raised $112 million via equity placing in November 2010.
-- Group cash balance $189 million at 31 December 2010, no debt.
-- Fully funded for current drilling programme on Etinde; significant financing flexibility.

2011 OUTLOOK

-- Ongoing exploration and appraisal activity in Cameroon is likely to include:
o Completion of Sapele-1ST well and testing programme to appraise the Deep Omicron oil discovery;
o Completion of the Sapele-2 appraisal well targeting Lower and Deep Omicron fairways;
o Further exploration/appraisal wells targeting Tertiary and Cretaceous prospectivity in the Douala Basin;
o Identification of potential leads and prospects from newly acquired MLHP-6 3D seismic prior to formulating the 2012 Etinde drilling programme;
o Further appraisal activities on the block MLHP-7 discoveries; and
o Generation of leads and prospects from the new Bomono 2D seismic ahead of planned 2012 drilling programme.
-- Convert resources to reserves; progress IE and IF development projects towards sanction.

Come mondayi t wil be 49days since annoucement of drillupdates,which would suggest
that news next week is likely? Wouldn't be supprised to see SP tick up today,with traders not wishing to be out,that's if past patterns are repeated?

Stopped out this morning as expected. Goldman Sachs downgrading oil hasn't helped.
Full year results 06th June, in meantime could drift down to 140ish.
My strategy now FWIW, placed Limit Buy (SB) @ 162.0, if it drops below 150.0, will place another @ 152.0 catching it on the way back up. Initial Target 200.0
Could be totally wrong and it goes on a flyer this aft or tomorrow. Not holding my breath, happy to have large profits banked for now. OOOps wrong thread (Dick)

Chris wrong thread i beiieve?

Aye sorry cyril, did state that.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201104200700142434F


Although below market expectations the usual over sell imho,also Merrils as per the following report,lets see what happens in 3 weeks?

Merrill's take

Encouraging Sapele sidetrack results
Bowleven has announced that the sidetrack well of its Sapele discovery (Block 5; offsh Cameroon) has hit a combined 23 metres of net hydrocarbon pay in mainly thin bedded sands. The pay includes 11m of oil/condensate in the Lower Omicron horizon and 10m of oil in the Deep Omicron horizon (the main target of this well).
We see the results as encouraging given that they confirmed the presence of
hydrocarbons 2km away from the original find. That said, the Deep Omicron
reservoir appears less developed and thinner at the sidetrack location than at the original borehole.
Flow test is now key to assess volumes Whilst the thinner pay (23m at sidetrack vs 31-43m at the original discovery)comes below expectations, it does not change the resource range at Sapele yet.
The forthcoming flow test will be key to assess deliverability potential and
volumes of the discovery. Ultimately, we believe that the 1bn boe resources
potential prize of block 5 as previously indicated by management is still intact.
Next stop: Sapele-2 appraisal in 20 days
Meanwhile, the Sapele-2 appraisal (20p risked; 70p unrisked) due to test the
Lower & Deep Omicron horizons some 5km away from the original discovery
continues drilling ahead. Management indicate that it will take another 15-20 days to get results from this well.
Re-iterating Buy rating; NAV unchanged
Given that the sidetrack flow test will be critical to fully assess volumes, following todays announcement we maintain our NAV unchanged at 490p. We continue to believe that Bowleven offers one of the most compelling riskrisk/reward profiles amongst European E&Ps and re-iterate our Buy rating.

Shares of this company are nor for widows or orphans but could surge back up is they strike lucky. The share graph suggests a possible heavy fall may come soon if the news dissapoints or if priced-in good news does not come soon enough.

I would suggest to my granny to sell her house and invest the proceeds in the shares of this company but ......
only if her house stands at the edge of cliffs suffering from sea erosion about to tumble into the sea and if granny has a strong desire to take a big gamble .

Looking really strong and on the move in the right direction....360p here we come.,.

News of Sapele-2 due,15/20 days from 10th April.Tends to be a leaky share,so lets hope this rise is on a positive result?

Excellent news from this very leaky company.

11 May 2011



Bowleven plc ('Bowleven' or 'the Company')



Sapele-2 well, Block MLHP-5, Etinde Permit, Cameroon



Bowleven, the West Africa focused oil and gas exploration group traded on AIM is pleased to announce that the Sapele-2 well drilling in the Douala Basin, offshore Cameroon has encountered a total of approximately 35 metres of independently log evaluated net hydrocarbon-bearing pay in the Omicron objectives based on the results of drilling and conventional wireline logs. A testing programme is expected to commence, subject to attaining various approvals, on completion of the logging programme.





Highlights

Approximately 35 metres of independently log evaluated net hydrocarbon pay encountered in the Omicron objectives at Sapele-2.

Preparing for testing programme at Sapele-2.

Sapele-1ST testing programme underway.





Sapele-2 drilling update



The principal objective of the Sapele-2 well was to appraise the Omicron discoveries encountered in the Sapele-1 exploration well. The well was drilled to a total depth (TD) of 3,749 metres as planned in water depths of 25 metres, penetrating both the Lower and Deep Omicron reservoir objectives at a location around five kilometres South West of the Sapele-1 location.



Bowleven, as operator, provides updates for the reservoir intervals encountered at Sapele-2 below:



Lower Omicron

Based on conventional wireline logs, provisional net pay is independently estimated to be approximately 19 metres, with an average porosity of 17%.

Deep Omicron

Based on conventional wireline logs, provisional net pay is independently estimated to be approximately 16 metres, based on conventional wireline logs, with an average porosity of 17%.



In both intervals the GC tracer indicates the probable presence of oil however due to borehole conditions it was not feasible to recover reservoir fluid samples at this stage. It is intended that both hydrocarbon type and formation pressure will be confirmed during the future test programme.







Forward plan



Further detailed analysis, including test data, is now required to assess the implications of both the Sapele-2 and Sapele-1ST wells on current resource estimates. A testing programme is currently underway on Sapele-1ST and the results are expected in the next two to three weeks. An update on Sapele-2 testing is expected in the next three to four weeks.



Due to the stratigraphic nature of the Omicron fields further drilling will likely be required to determine with greater confidence the potential size of these existing discoveries.



A map indicating the location of the Sapele-2 well is available on our website www.bowleven.com under the heading Presentations; the presentation is titled "Sapele drilling locations".

Back in the winners enclosure
- BUY
Successful Sapele-2 well results; No ifs, no buts
BLVN's Sapele-2 well in block 5 offshore Cameroon has successfully encountered
35 metres of net hydrocarbon pay (19m at the Lower Omicron level and 16m in
the Deep Omicron horizon). Importantly, initial logging/trace indications point to oil
(to be confirmed by a forthcoming flow-test) and much better reservoir quality than
that found at other well locations in the block. Given that this is the highest net
pay found in the block so far and that it has come ahead of expectations, we view
this result as unequivocally positive.
Proving connectivity between finds offers higher prize
Whilst management has provided no volumetric indications at this stage they
will come once the flow-tests are completed in 3-4 weeks time - we see the
Sapele-2 results potentially pushing resource estimates in the block significantly
higher. Sapele-2 was drilled 5km away from the original Sapele discovery in the
P20 polygon of the field. As such, we believe that if the forthcoming flow-test were
to prove that Sapele-2 is connected to the original find, we could see P90 in-place
resources for the Sapele field reaching 250-300mmboe (from the 105mmboe
originally indicated). Should the wells be connected, we would also expect a
material improvement in recovery factors. We expect more details at the
conference call with management today at 8.30am (BST): dial in: +44 (0)207 138
0819; pass code: 4137621.
Reiterating Buy rating; upping PO by 35p
Reflecting the discovery, we raise our NAV and PO by 35p to 525p. We note that
this increase in the NAV does not assume a fully connected reservoir covering
Sapele/Sapele-2, hence, a successful flow-test could still push our numbers
higher. Considering the c.30% drop in the stock over the past 40 days, we believe
that todays result should restore market confidence in the opportunity set that
Bowleven enjoys and significantly improve sentiment towards the stock. BUY.

Look at this go, glad I bought in yesterday and topped up first thing this morning.,.

We need flow rates and confirmation of oil,if so, this should really fly? I think at this level and with known news this is a bargain? imho

News expected a week ago still not released. Very suspicious.

No news is bad news.

Looks like market thinks so too!