.

Who is that?

Rf of course..... going to make a fortune on these.,.

Bon chance.

Proselenes said he bought 50k, but I don't see the trade anywhere! Very sus the way he's leaving now when the stock needs him most for ramping. He's taking a break.. just goes to show that he views ramping as a full time job???

When's the rig coming to FOGL????????

Chances are that P is a 14 year old schoolboy/schoolgirl. Never bought or sold a share in his/her life and style of writing/posting is juvenile

Not much happening yet but wait till we are 1000m down after a couple of weeks drilling : with 5 targets, all sorts of rumours are going to come out......the sp will start to go up....now whether there is a commercial size discovery there is in the lap of the gods...but their presentation shows something pretty big is down there with perhaps oil right down at the bottom.....in several intervals....this will be a lot more interesting than the previous wells....

may be Nessie's mum and dad

rf seems to have taken over from the absent PP!

Have Pi's sold FOGL and buy BOR today?

a couple days of selling and recent buyers are feeling the pinch

not if they have any brain at all .... they may have just sold both

Loligo is a classic Gulf of Mexico Class 3 AVO type anomaly.


To allow people to know what this means, see below :




1. AVO Class 3 Gas Sand:

• Unconsolidated sand, porosity greater than 25%, usually Tertiary in age.

• Gross interval velocity usually less than 8,500 ft/sec (2,650 m/sec). Gas and oil zones are bright spots on the stack section and on all offset (angle) stacks.

• AVO: The reflection amplitude, with respect to background, increases slightly with increasing offset distance or angle.

• Note: A Class 4 Gas Sand has same the characteristics as a Class 3 Gas Sand except the reflection amplitude decreases with increasing offset, caused by a hard shale or carbonate (shear velocity higher than gas sand shear velocity) on top of the sand.

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2. AVO Class 2 Gas Sand:

• Moderately consolidated sand, porosities 15% to 25%.

• Gross interval velocity in range of 8,500 ft/sec to 12,000 ft/sec (2,650 m/sec to 3,650 m/sec).

• Acoustic impedance of gas sand and encasing shale about equal.

• AVO is strongly more negative with increasing offset distance or angle.


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3. AVO Class 1 Gas Sand:

• Very consolidated sand, porosity less than 15%.

• Gross interval velocity usually greater than 12,000 ft/sec (3,650 m/sec).

• On stack seismic data, a large positive amplitude for a wet sand decreases to a smaller positive amplitude for a gas sand ("dim spot").

• AVO is less positive with increasing offset (angle) and may have a phase change at far offset distances.

The boundaries between classes are gradational, and therefore it may be necessary to evaluate amplitude anomalies in two classes.

And to go with the above........


The "idiots" guide to the Loligo prospect.

Loligo will be the first of two drills by FOGL.

Loligo has a P50 Oil In Place (OIP) estimate of nearly 16 billion barrels of oil

In the event Loligo is all oil it is expected the P50 recoverable barrels would be in the region of 4.7 billion barrels.

In the event Loligo is gas it is expected the P50 recoverable gas would be 25 TCF.

There is considerable upside potential to the P50 OIP figure, as of course there is downside as well. Loligo could end up being small or nothing, or indeed it could end up being 25 billion barrels of OIP.

The bare minimum requirement for economic gas development is 5 TCF, however this is not that attractive. The economics of gas development in this location become hot, hard and horny attractive when you get to 10 TCF recoverable or more. Therefore should Loligo be dry gas it is extremely commercial given 25 TCF P50 recoverable gas estimates.

Loligo has 5 targets, these being T1 at the top, T1 deep, Trigg, Trigg Deep and then Three Bears at the bottom.

The work done by BHP suggests the upper couple may be gas and the lower ones more likely oil. This is why FOGL tried their best to put themselves into a position to drill "Loligo Deep Well" which will go through all 5 sections.

The size of each target zone (based on oil) as we go from top to bottom is :


T1 = P50 OIP of 5 billion barrels = 1.5 billion recoverable barrels.

T1 Deep = P50 OIP of 2.15 billion barrels = 644 million recoverable barrels

Trigg and Trigg Deep = P50 OIP of 3.24 billion barrels = 969 million recoverable barrels

Three Bears = P50 OIP of 5.3 billion barrels = 1.59 billion recoverable barrels


(For a comparison Sea Lion of RKH is OIP of 1.3 billion barrels and circa 400 million recoverable barrels from that OIP figure)

As you can see Loligo is potentially around 12 times larger than Sea Lion.

Loligo has had several 2D seismic studies done giving very good infill data, and 2D with infill is far superior to standard 2D. BHP also did extensive studies and the conclusions are there are strong DHI's for the Loligo prospect - sadly for BHP their South American mining interests were used against them, IIS, to make them drop their FOGL interest, something they did not want to do but were pressured into. They wanted to retain back in rights given they know how prospective it is, however the Falklands Government refused to allow back in rights and BHP ended up having to let go of the lot in order to preserve and protect their South American mining interests in the face of Argie/Brazil pressure.

RKH recently accepted what I would call a "low ball" offer from PMO, its appears PMO was the only bid on the table at a price level that could be considered to be accepted. There are reasons for a low ball offer, one being presently Sea Lion is a stranded oil find, Sea Lion is not that big, Sea Lion is going to be difficult to develop based on the thin multiple sands (meaning lots of wells needed and difficult EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery)). But anyway, using the 4.7 US$ a barrel that PMO aid to be conservative you get :

4.7 billion recoverable barrels of which 75% is FOGL interest.

Thats 3.525 billion barrels to FOGL x 4.7 US$ = 10.7 billion pounds sterling.

10.7 billion divided by 320 million shares in issue = 33.5 pounds per FOGL share should Loligo be full of oil and thats based on "low ball" figures.

And that is just the Loligo prospect (FOGL has over a hundred leads in the license areas with potentially 300 billion barrels of OIP and 100 billion recoverable barrels potential).

FOGL is considered the "Jewel in the Crown" of the Falklands, and its no surprise a multi-billion major like EDF farmed into FOGL via Edison, and also no surprise that FKL hold lots of FOGL shares.

FOGL's Loligo is the single biggest well to be drilled in 2012. People are mistaken that Chariots Nimrod is bigger, but its not.

Nimrod is P50 recoverable barrels potential of just 4.361 billion barrels (page 23 of the latest CHAR presentation).

Loligo is P50 recoverable barrels potential of 4.7 billion barrels.


(The 4.9 billion attributed to Nimrod is the "mean" of the P10/P50/P90 figures - when you compare P50 of Loligo to P50 of Nimrod - Loligo is the biggest drill anywhere in the world this year).


And of course its 75% owned by FOGL - the biggest drill and the biggest potential upside in the world this year.

I'm in FOGL and CHAR....but hoping for a good result mainly from FOGL....fingers crossed...because 5 targets is a lot and rumours will be flying all over the place by the time we get down to 1000m or so......fantastic upside if a strike is made.....

Proselenes - 18 Jul 2012 10:47 - 943 of 965

As I have a very large holding now its time for me to disappear for summer holidays now and come back in the autumn - so enjoy the summer I shall pop in from time to time but not very often.

Time to tme means every 48 hrs to keep the ramp going?

EDITED MONEYAM

2 more people for the list above for not agreeing with Pro tut tut you can both join me

Stand in the corner of the room u two

The risk profile..............

http://boards.fool.co.uk/peter-the-trouble-for-some-here-is-unlike-bor-12603657.aspx

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Pro - For once I would like a non-biased view!

don't think that would be possible from anyone
my own uneducated guess is that, as the usual chances of hitting oil are reckoned at little better than 4:1 or perhaps 5:1, then FOGL's odds are 7:2 at best and it could easily and justifiably be argued that they are no better than 11:2