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I don't get it, if there's 4.7 billion barrels guaranteed recoverable oil, then why is there odds of only 4/1 ????????????????????

For those who want more technical detail on the well, see link below :

http://boards.fool.co.uk/for-those-who-require-more-technical-details-on-12604084.aspx
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there most assuredly is NOT " 4.7 billion barrels guaranteed recoverable oil" ...... it seems to have escaped your notice that but FOGL hasn't found $4.7-worth yet

And if they do find anything, it will take 3-5 years before any production gets underway.

Somebody tell RF that.,.

BD - the production bit is relatively unimportant ..... it's FINDING commercial quantities that will trigger ..... IF commercial quantities are found by FOGL, then the whole dynamic of the FI region changes, together with that of all companies involved.

Fair enough, but the value of the finds is related to the amount of oil and the cost/barrel of extraction.

yeeeees, but a good find will change general sentiment for the region dramatically, and specifically the perceived value of any company that actually has the stuff - e.g. FOGL and RKH, always supposing ......

Hi Blackdown,

Fully agree with Cynic on this (unusual for me).
If you are going to invest in any oil explorer, the time from find to production is just about the only thing you can have a decent idea of time scale.
If the intention is to hold long, till production, that waiting period should always be part of the investment calculations.
I do though, agree with your last comment,"But the value of the finds is related to the amount of oil and the cost/barrel of extraction".

I am sure that another significant find off the FIs will change things. However, wild estimates of sp (mainly from Pro) of £30+/share post drill are absurd.

of course they are - totally preposterous; divide by 10

prospective resource of 4.7 billion

which means "finger x-ed chaps; let's hope we manage to find even a can-full"

Could I be so bold and ask a question?

Not related to any share in particular........Why is it, when there are more "Buyers than Sellers" a share price goes down in value....strange to me....That's not hard!

Back to the Falklands......I agree with aldwick........Prospective resource of 4.7 billion.

Prospective Resources are the P50 recoverable barrels from the OIP.

OIP is circa 14 to 16 billion barrels potentially, up to 25 billion, down to 0 billion.

4.7 Billion barrels recoverable is one hell of a target to be drilling, far bigger than Shaiken which whilst it might be 15 billion in size the recovery rate for oil will be much lower (and so the prospective resources figure for Shaiken is lower that what might be at Loligo, with some good luck and a fair wind).

Hi Pro I agree that the prospects are fantastic. But like the North Sea we might need a few drills to hit the spot. What we all do need in these markets is a bit of luck.

When they drilled Brent for the first time : the riggers thought that the oil a tfirst was a leak from the rig itself until it dawned on them that they had hit it big......there is something big that shows in FOGL's seismic.....I reckon the sp will move very sharply as we get deeper and deeper ....

seismic means bugger all ..... do you think DES or BOR or anyone else drills just by sticking a pin the map?

The sp may move very sharply, but this may be downwards.

Gerponville

I think the answer to your query is the size of the sellers and buyers. You could have 1000 buyers at £10 each and 1 seller at £100,000 - Its the value of the transactions which count.

I'm getting so sick of people banging on about the 4.7 billion potential barrels of oil. Yes. Fantastic. Lets hope it hits oil. Now please stop repeating something everyone has already read. This is a speculative investment, nothing is certain. Sit tight and wait for the drill.

Cynic, prospecting is used by all exploration companies prior to the drill. FOGL seismic data is extra special because of the huge potential they have found. It is a bit out of the ordinary. BOR had nothing like it.

PS i'm seeing Pro get battered on other forums for his ramping. Amusing.