http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

hey, go and find your own special transport!
actually, you aren't entirely right .... though it is true to say that real value cannot be realised until everything comes on stream, if the underlying value of the reserves is this arbitrary 600p, then i would hazard that at this juncture +/-400p would be fair value - i.e. a discount of about 30%

LOL. only quoting you my friend......

doh! you thought i wouldn't notice?
perhaps dirigibles will suffice in falklands as they can also be used as barrage balloons should the argies get overexcited
anyway, good to see sp recovering nicely, though it's very early in proceedings

RKH will reach 300p very soon

can't spell that one .....space ships will do for me... had to get the dictionary out AGAIN.....how nice it must be to have an education.....lol

Nice bounce.

Should bounce much higher once those results come in from the lab.

you west country boys were only ever good for making cider and raking for the moon

RKH and DES
are doing well today after yesterday's profit taking

Some news maybe not in the thread from UKmedia.............
2010/05/10
Meanwhile, offshore the Falklands at Rockhopper Exploration Ocean Guardian rig, test samples from recent drillings have shown to be oil, suggested a good quality crude oil reservoir. The Wireline testing of 14/10-2 well on the Sea Lion prospect in the North Falkland Basin also indicated a possibility of two separate oil columns with a suggestion of no oil water contacts or water sands.

Rockhopper managing director Samuel Moody commented We will now wait for confirmation of the quality of the fluid as a result of the laboratory analysis, and continue our review of the data gathered from the well." The company is now to suspend the well pending further testing and intends to make a further announcement which could be within a week to ten days.
http://www.ukcitymedia.co.uk/news/fullstory.php?id=313

from the Times

Rockhopper Exploration, up more than 400 per cent in the past week, lost 11 per cent to 195p on profit taking. However, late in the session, there was talk the Falklands explorer could announce a large increase in reserves at its Sea Lion prospect next week.

Analysts have been valuing Sea Lion on the assumption that it contains 170m barrels of oil. Desire Petroleum, off 13 per cent at 82p, was also hit by profit taking.


No idea on what or where, we will have to wait and see what they come back with from the lab and data crunching.

Could be from the same source as the Shell oil, Shell found their sample much deeper and probably on the migration path of the oil to where it is in Sea Lion...we will know more on the next update perhaps.

Liz is rather like Johnson for RKH, no real value on its own. However the more oil and gas that is found the more "viable and relative" it becomes.

FT blog also perpetuating the rumour of the possibility of an upgrade to the reserves figure (poss 400m) & suggesting a price of 800p for RKH stock if that becomes reality.

Harry, yes.

By my workings 450M barrels is 1550p.

Others will discount more, if you took it down to just a 6$ a barrel valuation for 400M barrels you would come up with 914p a share (nominal valuation).

Slap on some further discounting (although why I do not know) but lets do it and yes, the SP here should surge up to 800p levels with ease.

400M (barrels rec) times 6 (dollars per barrel) divide by 1.5 (US/GBP X rate) divide by 175M (shares in issue) = 914p a share.

Loads of upside....... roll on the upgrades !!!!!! Next week.

I think pre-flow tests (but taking into account the permeability and "easy flow") a value of 6$ a barrel would be fine in my books.

Post flow test perhaps a rise to 8$ a barrel.


Rumours out now the upgrade is to 400M barrels recoverable for now (I had a figure of 450 but ok, lets use 400M).


400M @ 6$ a barrel = Price target of 914p a share.

Flow test done then rise to 8$ a barrel

400M @ 8$ a barrel = Price target of 1371p a share.


Hold on to your hats, initial reaction might be a doubling (or triple) from the present price, then slowly moving up and consolidating as the weeks and days to flow test counts down.

pp that's OK looking at the upside,but what is your calculation of the downside? If you want/can do a CFD with a guaranteed stop you are being asked for a 50% margin.

shouldn't be that much ..... guaranteed stop with IG, i think just means a wider spread ..... also with IG - first 10k shares attracts 25%, next 5k attracts 30%

halifax - downside ?

Porosity is fine between 19% and 29%
Permeability is excellent.
Pressure good.
Oil looks good, mobile, easily filled samples.
Oil/Water contact not found.

I have interpreted the data and to me there is no downside, only upside, unless people are telling lies.........

and this isn't a frank timis special!

CAPITAL GAINS TAX GOING UP TO 40%!!

that will make spread betting more appealing then unless they hit that too .... it's always been a strange loophole that does apply to CFDs

tapered relief may return though, as that was the trade-off for lowering the rate previously

The arguement is that S/B is gambling because 'the house' usually wins, in which case, what's the point of taxing it? I wonder how many people really make a living out of spread betting? As you say, CFD's may get swallowed up in to the equity tax band if they think enough people actually benefit from it.