.

seismic means bugger all ..... do you think DES or BOR or anyone else drills just by sticking a pin the map?

The sp may move very sharply, but this may be downwards.

Gerponville

I think the answer to your query is the size of the sellers and buyers. You could have 1000 buyers at £10 each and 1 seller at £100,000 - Its the value of the transactions which count.

I'm getting so sick of people banging on about the 4.7 billion potential barrels of oil. Yes. Fantastic. Lets hope it hits oil. Now please stop repeating something everyone has already read. This is a speculative investment, nothing is certain. Sit tight and wait for the drill.

Cynic, prospecting is used by all exploration companies prior to the drill. FOGL seismic data is extra special because of the huge potential they have found. It is a bit out of the ordinary. BOR had nothing like it.

PS i'm seeing Pro get battered on other forums for his ramping. Amusing.

i shall be delighted if FOGL find something useful as i remain a modest holder and also of RKH, but it is a cautious postion for very good reason

Hi Gerponville,

It also depends on what prices, bought and sold.
We often see a share that has had more buys by value than sells with the sp going down, and visa versa.
Its purely that buyers see the falling price as value.
To get the longer value view, you need to look at the volume values over more than a few days. At the moment, the share value of most stocks is not so much a reflection of the company, or what value investors feel it is worth, but mainly down to 'fear' of where we are heading, due to the thousand or so problems that the world appears to be stacking up.
No matter how positive I feel at the moment about Fogl, I like Cynic am being cautious.

No doubt if Fogl comes in 'very big' there will be many spouting how 'he who dares etc', and they will be right, but I like to sleep at night, knowing that all my eggs are not riding in a few baskets.

Thank you for the explanation Pessimism Sauce (makes sense now).........I can't help being thick.........It's the engineer in my blood.........Obviously not stocks and shares.

I promise not to mention 4.7 billion potential barrels of oil.......I do hope FOGL find oil though!

Also thank you to Greekman........Take some sleeping tablets..........The stock market will seem so calm........Even the Falklands!

Gerponville,

I started being interested in stocks and the markets about 15 years ago.
It is now one of my main hobbies, and I have around a dozen or so what I think are very interesting books on investing (wife shakes head and goes back to her romantic novels).
When you mention being 'thick' I think we all start off knowing very little, and even after 15 or so years, my knowledge although much greater than when I started, is still very poor compared to some.
One thing I do know though, is that the thickest mistake you can make is to not ask what you feel you should know.

Don't worry; I have never been afraid to ask the odd question or 2.

What do you want to know about engineering..........Especially, Pharmaceutical, and Petro Chemical ...Now were talking!

i know we do lots of biz with those companies, especially the latter

Just had confirmation from FOGL that the LE Rig is still with BOR as BOR are still working on the plug and abandon process.

Edison Reserach update on FOGL.

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/search/Falkland%20Oil%20&%20Gas

.

What a load of tosh, here is a ramp from another thread....so much for not posting..

Back to ramping gas as its worth more than oil...haha,If it worth that much why does he not buy BOR then.

I thought he was shouting £30 now it gone up to £40...the bloke is a clown

right i have had my moan am off back down the mine

Pro_S2009 24 Jul'12 - 12:16 - 19614 of 19622

Based on what was paid for Cove, if Loligo is 25 TCF recoverable its value(FOGL's 75% of it) would be 19.3 pounds per share to FOGL.

Not bad you can buy now for 70p.

19.3 pounds a share for 25 TCF dry gas.

Double that for oil.

I bought in yesterday morning @ £0.72

Proselenes - I thought you wer taking the summer off.. for the 2nd time now!

For a gas outcome to Loligo, here is a post I put on AFN.



Cove sold their gas at 3.07 US$ per BOE (barrels of oil equivalent)

If Loligo is gas thats 25 TCF recoverable, which is 4.16 billion boe.

4.16 billion with a 75% share is 3.12 billion boe net to FOGL.

3.12 billion x 3.07 US$ = 6.2 billion pounds


6.2 billion pounds divided by 320 million shares in issue = 19.37 pounds per FOGL share.


Gas is very welcome....... as is oil



And before anyone spouts crap, 5 TCF recoverable is economically viable to develop in the South Falklands. At 10 TCF recoverable is very very attractive. 25 TCF would be mega mega attractive - and probably why EDF have farmed in, they like to develop gas..............

!!!

i copied and pasted his post from there...guess he has missed a bit off.

guesswhosback 24 Jul'12 - 21:14 - 19623 of 19624

Pro, thats an interesting read. It also highlights the possibility that BOR has not quite finished yet. Seems bullish on their partial discoveries too.

Potential of a 5x from here if the first well is successful according to Edison. Worth the gamble I suspect.

Pro_S2009 24 Jul'12 - 23:14 - 19624 of 19624

guesswhosback.

They say circa 180p pre drill target price and "over 400% upside on success of first well".

So they are saying minimum 180p x 4 - but could be well over that too hence they say "more than 400%".
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOR is a dead duck in the water....even if gas, look at RHK who found oil

The bloke is full of ot....shi..

FOGL there will be a rush,yes buy now the odds are poor of out come,,,i hope they are lucky

I think the discussion on gas is very needed. It is expected the upper targets at Loligo will be gas - anything up to 15 TCF and very commercial due to the massive size, and lower targets oil.

You will note Edison update says "4.7 billion boe" - boe of course being "barrels of oil equivalent".

No mistake should be made with Loligo, a mixture of oil and gas or gas alone is to be expected.

5 TCF recoverable is the minimum for development in the South Falklands, Loligo is targeting 25 TCF which is well above the 10TCF level at which gas development becomes very attractive.

My own "best possible" scenario is 15 TCF recoverable in the upper targets and then 2 billion barrels of oil in the lower. This would make both gas and oil highly commercial in the South Falklands and would fast track gas development with EDF and also oil development with EDF.

The biggest clue of course is in the name of the company - being Falkland Oil and GAS.

FOGL has the massive size targets that would be commercial on an oil find or a gas find.

Folks who post in the middle of the night presumably have an issue of some sort.