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Victoria Oil & GAS THE BIG ONE (VOG)     

niceonecyril - 24 Jul 2005 15:48

"> Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=VOG&Si
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381032
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4381151
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/final-results/201310250700053729R/

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VOG is presently drilling Well 104 in its West Medvezhye field,and expected to reach depth in 4 weeks from spud date of 30th June, that makes 27th July(this week).
Results of testing will be sometime mid/late August, with a positive outcome
it could be HUGH.
With estimates of 134BILLION cubic metres of GAS and 201 Million barrels of Gas
Condensate,it will be a Company Maker. The field is in the area of the largest gas field in the WORLD.
Other assets include Kemerkol in Kazakhstan, with C1 reserves of 8.7MBO
and C2 reserves of7.8MBO. Another acquistion is Tamdykol with potental
reserves of 34MBO, it also has interest in 2 blocks in the North Sea.
You can check it out on www.uk-wire.com, and its own site of www.victoriaoilandgas.com.
It has excellent management team led by Kevin Foo, who hopes to turn it into
a Mid Cap Company(�500m+) in the not to distant future.
As i stated earlier in the post, Drilling is almost complete so it won't be long to Lift Off?
Well, Well worth checking out.
cyril

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111040700164867R

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111290700139263S
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112200700132888U
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201207090700051587H
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/rsm-default/201401130700074445X/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/victoria-oil---38--gas--vog-/rns/interim-results/201402280701321590B/
http://www.investegate.co.uk/CompData.aspx?code=VOG&tab=announcements

lizard - 25 Jul 2006 11:51 - 997 of 2511

cheers st- hope your right?.i think it has to be successful to give the management renewed credibility!.

cynic - 25 Jul 2006 13:29 - 998 of 2511

companies do not intentionally drill dusters

candolim - 26 Jul 2006 23:04 - 999 of 2511

nothing happening today. lets hope tomorrow we get some upwards movement. I must says i am realling disappointed in the company at the moment by maybe it is early days, and a long term project. I dont mind the wait.

soul traders - 27 Jul 2006 10:41 - 1000 of 2511

Candolim, you have to be realistic about the oil and gas industry. Some holes in the ground contain hydrocarbons and some don't, and that's a fact of geology, not a management or company issue.

I don't think that the VOG SP is going to go rocketing skywards in the current market conditions and with an absence of news. It's going to be a case of digging in and being patient over the next six months while the co gets the next phase of the drilling on stream. Well 103 is drilling ahead at the moment and being cored for the assessment of six potential gas-bearing structures, so there is a chance of some newsflow near-term.

I quote the RNS in which the news was released about the disappointing show at Danniella:

"the Board has decided to refocus the allocation of its resources on
the exploration and further development of deeper horizons in the 1,440 square
kilometre (555 square mile) licence area, which are the productive horizons of
the adjacent main Medvezhye field.

The development of these horizons is underway with the drilling of Well 103,
which has reached a depth of 1,653 metres. This well will test a new structure,
for which D&M have estimated a gross prospective resource volume of 639 billion
cubic feet of gas and 32 million barrels of condensate, (138.5 million barrels
of oil equivalent).

The next target will be Well 105 located in the North-West corner of the licence
area, which has been labelled the North-West Closure. D&M have estimated gross
prospective resource volumes of 559 billion cubic feet of gas and 20.2 million
barrels of condensate at this location, (114.0 million barrels of oil
equivalent) and work is expected to commence towards the end of this year.

Commenting on the results, Managing Director William Kelleher said, 'West Med
still has confirmed expected resources of one billion barrels of oil equivalent
as the shallower horizons of Danniella contributed less than 10% to the previous
total expected resources.

'We are now entirely focused on the most prospective areas of the licence block
and we are currently pursuing exploration at the deeper targets in Wells 103 and
105.'

Looks encouraging to me - but WDIK, PDYOR. BTW according to a more recent RNS the drilling is well past the 3,000-metre mark, so coring should be taking place any day.

ejvind - 28 Jul 2006 18:43 - 1001 of 2511

Ive been holding shares in VOG for some months now. I bought the shares on advice. Because of the recent slide in the sp I have done some reading to try to figure out the value of the company.

Does anybody know the cash situation in the company? As I understand Well 103 is almost completed, but do the have funding in place for the drilling program in 2007, well 105,107 and 109?

My main worry is that the company will need to raise cash and new share holders will need a discount to the present share price.

We know the company has some good prospects. We also know that you often need to drill many wells before you will find oil/gas. So the main issue for shareholders must be the ability of the company to get cash for the drilling program.

If well 103 is dry, will the market completely loose trust in the company.

Does anybody know the situation at Kermerkol. VOG says that production should reach 1,800 barrels per day at the end of 2006. This should generate some cash.

cynic - 28 Jul 2006 18:51 - 1002 of 2511

Well 103 - read post 987 ..... clearly not a dud, or at least so it would seem ..... Can't answer the rest of your questions, though I still think VOG has the potential to be a really successful producer

Haystack - 28 Jul 2006 19:24 - 1003 of 2511

VOG spent about 10m in six months up to November, so how long will the 13m raised last November last (8 months ago). Their net assets apart from the cash are made up almost entirely of Intangible Assets.

ejvind - 28 Jul 2006 20:18 - 1004 of 2511


So probably the cash situation is not good enough to last the drilling plans in 2007.

In the fundraising prospect last november there must have been written something about what the cash is going to be used for.

Has anybody seen this?

VOG states that the fund-raising was oversubscribed - why didn't they raise enough money to last for 5-6 wells (I can't say for sure that they don't have).
Did they gamble on success on there first couple of drillings.

lizard - 28 Jul 2006 20:47 - 1005 of 2511

this sp collapse is starting to take the p*** now!.

if it had moved this far in the other direction we would be getting 'the company sees no reason for share price movements' statement. otherwise the kiss of death to end a good run.

cynic - 28 Jul 2006 21:48 - 1006 of 2511

With sp falling through 80/85p there is certainly a chance that it will fall to the next technical support at 50p if for no other reason than no news of note (from memory) is due until about October ....... However, shares are never that logical and it may equally be that a further announcement is due rather sooner on Well 103 which at first inspection looks quite promising.

ejvind - 28 Jul 2006 22:23 - 1007 of 2511


I would say the future SP has a lot to do with their cash position.

If VOG has enough cash for the 2007 drilling program, I wouldn't hesitate to buy more shares as they very probably will get some success sooner or later. But if VOG'll need to raise more equity soon and well 103 is not successfull, I would sell and wait to buy back when VOG has raises the new cash.

When do we have the possibility to know their cash position?

candolim - 29 Jul 2006 08:41 - 1008 of 2511

I think the time has come for the person who phone kevin foo or george dunn up previously to phone either of them up again and ask some questions. especially regarding their cash position. I did actually top up yesterday 10000 at .81and a half pence per share. I am making an incredibly large loss at the moment, since the majority were bought at 2.50 per share in may. I do now regard my investment as a long one. other that that I would not like to see my present holds shrink down to .50 pence as cynic as stated could happen. I think the person who phone the company up previously, would be the best one to phone as he will be known. Try and find out as much as you can regarding their position and what the future holds. obviously they will be discreet abount opinions, but it may help us to feel a little better at home in the investors room.

cynic - 29 Jul 2006 09:23 - 1009 of 2511

I confess i find it very surprising that main board directors are willing to correspond at all with what are in reality, very small investors. Surely they cannot and will not divulge anything of true note without contravening LSE and FSA rules?

candolim - 29 Jul 2006 13:33 - 1010 of 2511

ejvind I have read your message and would think if the company was to raise more cash, i would think the way they would do it would be one new share for lets say every 4 shares you hold at at lesser price, and this would only be for the shareholders correct me if I am wrong. I personally do not think there is anything wrong with this method. Cynic, all i can say it is worth a try to talk to kevin or george, there is nothing to lose by this.

optomistic - 29 Jul 2006 14:57 - 1011 of 2511

Turning point? That's a big question, the answer would pay bigtime!

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=VOG&Si

soul traders - 29 Jul 2006 15:29 - 1012 of 2511

Candolim, it sounds like you're referring to a rights issue. From experience, it's highly unlikely that this will happen - in any case rights issues in particular tend to be a somewhat coercive form of fundraising which communicate that a co is really in a bad way, whereas a placing is much more of an invitation to become a shareholder and tends to go down well with institutions who believe they see plenty of upside value. Lots of smaller companies have to raise cash regularly and use an institutional placing to do so.

VOG may have to raise cash in the future. At the current SP, another fundraising of 13 mil would represent a 14% dilution, which is about par for the course. Indeed on some assessments VOG still has a very healthy market cap in comparison with other oil & gas minnows with little in the way of proven reserves.

Given the potential of VOG to be a multibagger I do not think that another fundraising undermines the case for investing in the stock - as long as the hydrocarbons are found in commercial quantities!

All IMO, PDYOR.

Re talking to the directors, I tend to agree with Cynic. All they can really tell us is what we already know - that the co is drilling and will have to take the results of the drilling, whatever they may be, on the chin. Nobody knows for certain if there's commercial gas down there; after analysing the seismic it's a case of drilling and hoping. But FYI a success rate of one commercial well for every four or five holes drilled is often thought of as pretty prolific. VOG's range of drill targets at West Med should be capable of producing - the region is supposed to be the world's premier gas producer after all.

soul traders - 29 Jul 2006 15:31 - 1013 of 2511

Opto, I agree it would be nice to pick when this stock is going to turn the corner, but isn't it better to say that from the present SP, if the co is successful at West MEd, there will be a lot of upside over the next year or two and buy in on dips?

optomistic - 29 Jul 2006 15:47 - 1014 of 2511

soul traders, many small oilers must have lots of upside potential over the next two years.
Buying on dips is good if you can hit the bottom of them, I'm not too clever at that so I would prefer buying into a new confirmed uptrend.
Then again I do keep having a go! ........and building a LT portfolio .......LOL

cynic - 29 Jul 2006 18:21 - 1015 of 2511

opto* - many small oilers will go belly-up and only a few will make it to true profitability ..... IMO VOG is likely to be one of the latter (gas of course) and CHP possibly and MRP just possibly ..... not so sure about GOO

soul traders - 29 Jul 2006 19:13 - 1016 of 2511

Cynic, interesting re your feeling about GOO - I too feel that it's a little early to tell with this one.

However you fail to mention NOP - easily one of the best prospects around, IMO.

PS - sent you an e-mail, in case you haven't seen.
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