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Tradrers Thread - Tuesday 27th April (BP.)     

Crocodile - 26 Apr 2004 21:40

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S&P Futures

Nikkei -103 Hang Seng +97  Asia News

  DAX    CAC     Euro News

U.S indexes fell back as profit taking & interest rate worries depressed the markets.

BP's first quarter has come in higher than market expectations with the U.K underperforming the U.S & Asia. They are going to sell half of their the petrochemical business and are considering an IPO on the refining part of the company. Extra output from its newly acquired Russian assets helped it to boost its daily production to just over 4 million barrels a day.

Tesco said its Tokyo unit hopes to take over an indebted Japanese supermarket chain after recently giving it some help.

Westbury housebuilder said annual profits rose 24 percent to 115.6 million pounds, in line with market estimates, delivering an 11th straight year of profit and dividend growth

Game Group reported an annual 4.5 percent rise in profit to 34.7 million pounds in line with expectations and said it was doubling its dividend to 2.0 pence. Turnover rose 8.3 percent to 607 million pounds but the firm sales fell 9.0 percent in the 11 weeks to April 17, they said they aim to beat a difficult market in 2004

British American Tobacco reported a three percent dip in first-quarter profits hit by the strength of the pound but said momentum in 2004 will continue. This profit of to 454 million pounds was well below market expectations

ukf.gif Calendar:  United Kingdom usf.gif  United States (GMT) euro.gif  Europe & World (GMT)

Amvescap (I), BP (Q1), SurfControl (I), Ferraris (I), Alexandra (F), Game (F), Robotic Technology Systems (F), Solitaire (F), Westbury (F), C.I. Traders (F), BAT (Q1)

Aviva (AGM), Bradford & Bingley (AGM), HBOS (AGM), Northern Rock (AGM), Benfield (AGM), Personal Holdings (AGM), Rank (AGM), Royalblue (AGM), Singer and Friedlander (AGM), UK Coal (AGM),

10:00 CBI quarterly industrial trends survey

DuPont , McDonald's, Verizon

15:00 Existing Home Sales (6.2M)

15:00 Consumer Confidence (88.3)

Vossloh, Software AG

Essilor International, Renault,

Data Download FTSE Intraday Calendar US Zone HTML Edit Currency Calc Dividends Director Dealings Broker Upgrades / Tips

David@SnappyTrader.com   www.SnappyTrader.com

Pre Market Futures FTSE +5 DAX+5 DOW+3 S&P+0.3 Nasdaq+0.5

ThePlayboy - 27 Apr 2004 07:16 - 2 of 40

TUES FTSE PP

R2 4595
R1 4584
PP 4575
S1 4563
S2 4555


Ftse close below its pp on Monday within a 20pt trading range! pos brk up at 4578, watching 4560/65 down for cont weakness atm, all down to the dow to close above 10460 for signs of strength but is struggling to pass 10500 atm, a period of consolidation it seems!




Updated 4/26 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 4/27
UP Above 10,520
DN Below 10,400

Holding..
Dow pulls back off highs, but holds within clear range.

From prior commentary, "...today's sideways movement between 10,400 and 10,500 could spark even further sideways activity within this range before a clean break occurs...be aware that a break either way from this range could ignite movement..."
The Dow opened the session higher this morning, but the day's gains were quickly wiped away, as the index pulled back off the highs to trade lower within the wide trading range, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The range spans from 10,400 to 10,515, which will be the focus for direction in the medium term.

The fact that the index has formed a consolidation at the highs beneath the upper boundary of a wide, bearish range implies strength. We will continue to watch the 10,500 level, as this level is clearly a fulcrum in the charts. An upside push through this level, and through the tops of the ranges, will likely spark a significant rise in the charts.

Conversely, a downside break from the consolidation at 10,400 will likely lead to another push lower within the wide, sloping range. Watch the consolidation closely, as a break either way should be highly tradeable. As we saw today, we could see further sideways movement within the range boundaries before a break either way is seen. Stand aside until the break occurs.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow ended the day within a tight range from 10,418 to 10,460, seen in the 1 Minute Chart. Watch for a break from this range for direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market, since none of our entry levels were triggered. We will watch 10,400 down, and 10,520 up tomorrow; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each pulled back off the session highs today, leading to a downtrending session. Each index continues to hold beneath the clear upper boundary of the bullish range, which we will continue to watch for direction. *

Summary

The Dow pulled back off the morning highs and pushed lower within the range boundaries. The index continues to trade sideways within the consolidation boundaries. Look for further sideways movement until a clear and solid break occurs.

Crocodile - 27 Apr 2004 07:40 - 3 of 40

Morning all, thanks TP

little woman - 27 Apr 2004 07:46 - 4 of 40

Morning all,

Tying in a hurry Croc! too many "r" in the title

zarif - 27 Apr 2004 07:46 - 5 of 40

morning all

roma - 27 Apr 2004 07:50 - 6 of 40

Morning all

Crocodile - 27 Apr 2004 07:55 - 7 of 40

rrrrrrrrr Thansk LW :-)

Crocodile - 27 Apr 2004 07:56 - 8 of 40

OPEC considering increasing oil prices rising $10 a barrel, that will help oil shares

Druid2 - 27 Apr 2004 07:57 - 9 of 40

Morning all.

jj50 - 27 Apr 2004 08:01 - 10 of 40

morning all.

Melnibone - 27 Apr 2004 09:19 - 11 of 40

Morning all,

Wonder how long this desultory trading from barely Bullish
to barely Bearish will continue. Maybe we'll range until the
initial jobless claims and GDP figures at the end of the week.

If GDP growth is too big it will spark fears of higher, sooner
interest rate rises. If it's too small then it will spark fears
of a slowdown in growth and corporate profits with too much
already priced in. A fine line for the FED to tread.

Don't forget, as I mentioned earlier this week, we're coming up
to the old 'Sell in May and come back on St. Legers Day'.

What I'd like to see is a nice blow off high on the US and UK
Indices, and then a nice short for a decline through the summer.
Didn't happen last year though, in fact we got the reverse.

Decisions, decisions. Lol!

Melnibone.

ThePlayboy - 27 Apr 2004 09:24 - 12 of 40

mel- old wives tale the sell in May scenrio for my money!

little woman - 27 Apr 2004 09:31 - 13 of 40

Mel - you been very cautions for the last 12 months - life is all about taking risks and having fun.

I've gone long SCTN

ThePlayboy - 27 Apr 2004 09:36 - 14 of 40

"sometimes it better to have tried than done nothing at all" my motto LW!

Melnibone - 27 Apr 2004 09:39 - 15 of 40

Cautious, yes, little woman.
But cautiously making money, a little and often. :-)
Never yet been caught out by the big drops. (Touch wood).

I still go long on Blue Chips every week, take the money
and drop out again. So I've not missed any of the Bullish action.

Maybe an old wives tale, TP. But if enough people believe it then
it becomes self-fulfilling, same as I believe some of TA works.
We're still a natural herding species. :-)

Melnibone.

ThePlayboy - 27 Apr 2004 09:42 - 16 of 40

Mel agree re the self fulfilling angle, just feel its another phrase the mkts use to get people on the wrong side, sticking to my signals! Hope ur doing ok!

Melnibone - 27 Apr 2004 09:51 - 17 of 40

Agree TP, I always follow the signals and the market direction.
If I ever fix the Delorean then I'll follow my own ideas on
direction, until then the Market direction will suffice.:-)

By the way, in August 03, the FTSE nearly hit 4300.
Here we are, 8 months down the line and only about
250 points higher. In fact we recently dropped back
down below 4300.
Where's the fire? ;-)

Melnibone.

ThePlayboy - 27 Apr 2004 09:54 - 18 of 40

lol mel looking for an alternative fuel source for mine, plutonium not so readlily available these days for some reason:) Right of out now til arvo, scalped my 10pts this morning off ftse in 3 lots! just love them coms:(

Crocodile - 27 Apr 2004 10:19 - 19 of 40

The 10 day intraday chart is now a choice on the header.

Melnibone - 27 Apr 2004 10:25 - 20 of 40

draw?size=Big&movingAverageString=%2C%2C

This is one of the reasons why I'm still cautious.
I've multiplied the 200Day MA by 5 to give a 1000 Day MA which should
work as a 200Week MA on a weekly chart. It comes out the same on a proper
weekly chart on BigCharts.com with a 200 MA, but I can't seem to post one
of them, I always seem to screw it up.

I like to keep an eye on the really big picture. Note the overall
direction of the market and the MA.
Of course, trends don't go on forever, so maybe we will enter a new
period of Nirvana, where everyone is paper rich with prices that new
buyers MAY pay the holders for their wares if they decide to sell.

Until then, I think I'll just stick to short term trading and putting
cash in the bank each week. Not paper profits in a portfolio. :-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 27 Apr 2004 10:51 - 21 of 40

draw?epic=HBOS

Here's a one year chart of HBOS.
Note the price 12 months ago and the price now.
Where's the difference?

How much have LTBH buy and forget holders made this Year?
How much have short term traders made this Year?

Melnibone.
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