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INVOX, Cash Generative Stock, Going Derd Cheap. (INX)     

goldfinger - 21 Feb 2005 12:55

Opened a new position in these after finding them to be extremly cheap, and also cheap going forward. P/E now circa of 12, forward P/E to end of june 2005 is 8.7.

Broker Numis is forecasting full year pre tax profit of 8.8 million and Earnings per share of 30.3p, stunning growth

Highlight Of results Interims 31/12/2004.

Profit of 4.45 million before goodwill amortisation and tax
(2003: 3.15 million)
Earnings per share 15.1p before goodwill amortisation (2003: 14.3p)
Interim dividend increased to 7.25p per share (2003: 7.0p)
Brightview acquisition completed
Current trading encouraging

Director Speak

The Company enjoyed a good half-year to 31 December 2004. Cash generation was
strong and as before a high proportion of this cash is being returned to
shareholders as dividend.

In the six months to 31 December 2004 Invox made a profit of 4.45 million
before goodwill amortisation and tax, compared with 3.15 million for the six
months to 31 December 2003. This includes a contribution of 1.26 million from
Brightview, the Internet Service Provider acquired on 9 August 2004.

During the period the postal promotions business continued to demonstrate its
resilience with a broadly maintained operating profit of 3.19 million (2003:
3.15 million). Most of the six months under review showed year-on-year profit
improvement but December, though still profitable, was not as strong as December
2003. Once again, margin improvements arose from a deliberate and increased
focus on our own highly responsive database, and a reduction in less profitable
third party campaigns. Further new promotional and prize innovations, such as
portable CD players, have allowed us to maintain a fresh and attractive
offering. A number of test SMS-based promotions have been conducted during the
half year, but with inconclusive results. Current trading is encouraging and we
continue to seek new ways of leveraging our database.

As an independent Internet Service Provider, Brightview has a relatively large
customer database of over 300,000 users, the great majority of these accessing
the internet via dial-up rather than broadband. It appears inevitable that
dial-up business will dwindle over the years, and management is therefore making
strenuous efforts to establish Brightview as a significant presence in the
broadband marketplace. We are looking to convert a significant proportion of our
Brightview customers to broadband as soon as possible, as well as attracting new
customers. We are now able to offer a range of broadband services, making us
more competitive than before. We are therefore promoting the offering in a
number of ways. Our experience to date has been that converting existing dial-up
customers to broadband is proving much easier, and more profitable, than
recruiting new users from advertising. Brightview's broadband customer numbers
have increased from around 3,600 at the time of the acquisition to almost 10,000
now, and the rate of increase has accelerated in recent months. Shareholders
should be aware, however, that while broadband customers are potentially a very
valuable asset in the longer term, in the short term they contribute relatively
little to profit, owing to the initial costs of connecting a broadband customer
and supplying a modem.

Outlook.

Further progress is now likely with its database of over 400,000 mobile phone users, and Brightview will be a challenge converting customers from dial up to Broadband. The core mailed promotion business which is highly cash generative should see the company realise Broker forecasts.

Highly Speculative but derd cheap. As a high beta and hopefully we should see a re - rating .

DYOR

cheers GF.








goldfinger - 21 Feb 2005 13:04 - 2 of 64

The chart doesnt look a pretty sight at the moment but there are signs of volume picking up.

p.php?pid=legacydaily&epic=INX&type=1&si

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 21 Feb 2005 13:08 - 3 of 64

Tipped by Bill Johnston of whatshot.com and also by ukanalyst in the last few days. Here is what Bill had to say:-

(In the public domain for free so no probs in pasting)

"Buy Invox at 267.5p
Argues Bill Johnston of WatsHot.com

A few weeks ago I wrote about the sub-sector which helps fill the air at premium telephone rates for fun (yours) and profit (theirs). It had not been long since one of the newest and classiest participants, MonsterMob (MOB) had issued a profit warning and announced cost-cutting measures, a bit of a turn-off I felt in what was supposed to be such a fast-expanding activity - all the more so since the share price had been on a fat multiple of the company's 2003 earnings. But assisted by an investment from the Barclay brothers and hoarse cries about stupendous current profitability the MonsterMob share price shot back up again. So what of Invox (INX), a not dissimilar business, which has never delivered to its shareholders anything other than steady growth - generating cash and distributing it too?

Invox really burst into life when TPC Telecoms, a company which had made 2 million pounds before tax to April 2001, and which held more than that in the bank, was acquired for 12.6 million pounds, net of its cash. TPC, then just over a year (about the same age as MonsterMob then) had made its money from card-based competitions, cards with high graphics content mainly distributed by means of newspapers and magazines; prize winners - and there are plenty - have to claim their prizes by calling premium-rate lines. Additional sources of premium-rate business were both being pursued, and were in contemplation, in-house and through prospective acquisition.

After a 1-for-100 share consolidation the company announced that profits to June last year would exceed expectations. Even so the shares still leapt in excitement as the adjusted net profit figure cruised up to 5 million pounds pre amortisation and pre tax, against the 2.6 million pounds for the previous year - even if the increased number of shares meant that the increase from 22p to 27p was less pronounced. But a jump in the dividend from 7p to 20p was one way of pinning the shares at their attained altitude. Another might have been the fact that the cash-generating company (7.6 million pounds from sales of 18 million pounds) had so far failed to brand its competitions - but intended to do so in future. Not only that but the increasing tendency of its customers to use SMS messaging was seen as helping to create another invaluable asset.

The year to June, which had also seen the postal disputes help flatten out the growth curve - recorded earnings per share were 30p per share against just 27p. But this was accomplished as sales receded from 18 million pounds to under 15 million pounds, reflecting a rise of over 10 points in the gross margin as the competitions were concentrated on targeted databases - mainly the company's own, culled from a customer base of 3.5 million, including 400,000 mobile phone users. But if Invox was that concentrating on the more intensive cultivation of its own soil (which I for one welcomed) the broadening and extending of the business had not been ignored either, as in July the company raised 15 million pounds at 300p to acquire Internet Service Provider Brightview Group. Brightview, whose 300,000 active customers had enabled it to table a pre goodwill- amortisation operating profit of 4 million pounds in the 54 weeks to April 2004.

Cross-selling and telecommunication purchasing power are expected to give new opportunities to what are two already successful businesses, as the drive for broadband and the prospects of Christmas trading keeps the enlarged group on its toes.

The shares now stand at 267.5p, and the yield, given the 21p dividend total, is a mouth-watering 7.5%. The earnings forecast for June 2005 is 34p per share - a prospective multiple of 8. I say buy.

Share price: 267.5p
Market: AIM

cheers GF.

Big Al - 21 Feb 2005 13:19 - 4 of 64

gf

The volume increase has definitely caught my eye, but you are right about the chart - not pretty! Watching.

Al

goldfinger - 21 Feb 2005 13:24 - 5 of 64

Best time to get them just off the bottom , Big Al.

cheers GF.

mickeyskint - 21 Feb 2005 13:31 - 6 of 64

Not a good chart GF. Will need to see something more positive, but will put on my watch list.

MS

loadsadosh - 21 Feb 2005 13:40 - 7 of 64

Hi GF, Mickey
Given the contra relationship between share price and dividend I have long supported the view that the best time to buy the stock is when the dividend is high and of course vice-versa this one should be no exception, and given their market situation promises to be interesting

goldfinger - 21 Feb 2005 14:05 - 8 of 64

Its derd cheap aswell on that forward P/E.

cheers GF.

mickeyskint - 21 Feb 2005 14:14 - 9 of 64

I know, but that chart. Last year was not good. I need to feel more confident. Yes it could be good but!!

MS

goldfinger - 21 Feb 2005 14:23 - 10 of 64

Quite day today Mickey. Always the same when the yanks are on holiday.

cheers GF.

mickeyskint - 21 Feb 2005 14:27 - 11 of 64

Yes, Your right. Back to normal tomorrow. Is it snowing where you are. All clear here at the moment.

MS

goldfinger - 22 Feb 2005 00:23 - 12 of 64

Vastly undervalued and overlooked. My share for March 2005.

cheers GF.

moneyplus - 22 Feb 2005 00:28 - 13 of 64

I agree--but no spare cash!!

PapalPower - 22 Feb 2005 02:21 - 14 of 64

Very interesting - however looking at the charts I do not see that the bottom is close as yet, I maybe wrong, but I shall wait a little longer and see where the charts go. As and when she bottoms and levels, I shall be in for some for sure.



graph.php?size=Large&enableRSI=true&show

PapalPower - 22 Feb 2005 02:34 - 15 of 64

Recent RNS also concerns :

Invox PLC
News Story


Invox PLC - Holding(s) in Company
RNS Number:7292I
Invox PLC
17 February 2005

Invox plc (the 'Company')

The Company was informed on 16 February 2005 that, following the disposal of
211,292 ordinary shares in the Company, the AEGON UK plc Group of Companies no
longer has a notifiable interest in the ordinary share capital of the Company

For the purposes of this announcement the AEGON UK plc Group of Companies means
Scottish Equitable plc, Scottish Equitable (Managed Funds) Limited, AEGON Fund
Management UK Ltd, AEGON Investment Management UK Ltd, AEGON Asset Management UK
plc, Scottish Equitable Trustees Limited, Guardian Assurance plc, Guardian
Linked Life Assurance Limited, Guardian Pensions Management Limited and Guardian
Unit Managers Limited.

Enquiries:

Jerry Reidy, Finance Director, Invox Plc 0121 214 9900


Invox PLC - Holding(s) in Company
RNS Number:7891I
Invox PLC
18 February 2005


Invox plc (the 'Company')

The Company was notified on 17 February 2005 that Carl Tatton ESQ disposed of
100,000 ordinary shares in the Company on 9 February and 100,000 ordinary shares
in the Company on 15 February and as a result currently holds 1,650,828 ordinary
shares of 50p each in the Company. This holding represents 7.6% of the ordinary
share capital of the Company

Enquiries:
Chris Bucknall, Numis Securities Ltd 020 7776 1500



Will keep them in my watchlist though.

goldfinger - 22 Feb 2005 10:15 - 16 of 64

Wonder who snapped the sells up then?.

cheers GF.

mickeyskint - 22 Feb 2005 10:39 - 17 of 64

PapalPower

As good as they are is there any chance of reducing the size of the graphs. I can't grasp the whole picture in one glance. Many thanks.

MS

goldfinger - 22 Feb 2005 15:58 - 18 of 64

Going even cheaper now.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 23 Feb 2005 02:05 - 19 of 64

The year to June, which had also seen the postal disputes help flatten out the growth curve - recorded earnings per share were 30p per share against just 27p. But this was accomplished as sales receded from 18 million pounds to under 15 million pounds, reflecting a rise of over 10 points in the gross margin as the competitions were concentrated on targeted databases - mainly the company's own, culled from a customer base of 3.5 million, including 400,000 mobile phone users. But if Invox was that concentrating on the more intensive cultivation of its own soil (which I for one welcomed) the broadening and extending of the business had not been ignored either, as in July the company raised 15 million pounds at 300p to acquire Internet Service Provider Brightview Group. Brightview, whose 300,000 active customers had enabled it to table a pre goodwill- amortisation operating profit of 4 million pounds in the 54 weeks to April 2004.

Cross-selling and telecommunication purchasing power are expected to give new opportunities to what are two already successful businesses, as the drive for broadband.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 23 Feb 2005 10:43 - 20 of 64

Dont sell off, the markets getting a shock taste of reality. There will be a bounce in the US.

cheers GF.

goldfinger - 01 Mar 2005 12:08 - 21 of 64

Shrewd Snapshot: Barnard buys more Invox
Published: 07:33 Tuesday 01 March 2005 TOTAL PAGES: 1
By: Algernon Craig Hall, Secret Buying Correspondent Back To Latest News Printable Version









Citywire AA-rated fund manager Michael Barnard has increased his holding in postal promotions company Invox.

Shrewd Barnard bought 1.2 million shares to take his funds' combined holding to 2.4 million or 11.3% of the 55.4 million company.

Last month the company (INX) reported strong interim numbers but its house broker Numis commented that attempts to juice the group's database had not been as successful as previously hoped.

The company has attracted a number of shrewd investors thanks to the combined attractions of growth and a hefty dividend.

The shares closed down 1p yesterday at 206.5p.

cheers GF.

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