CEY is a gold mining company operating in Egypt. It was ordered by the Egyptian Government to stop drilling pending a legal dispute brought against the company by a government minister.

Since then, the whole Government cabinet was replaced a few months ago and the minister now in charge of Mining is believed to be positive on Western investment in the country. CEY are pushing for this minister to allow them to continue drilling ASAP; investers are waiting....patiently.

As soon as the company gets the go-ahead to continue drilling, the share price will move north; CEY has plenty of gold in this mine and it is (apparantly) the case of "raking" it out rather than drilling for it!

Check them out...worthy of a punt.

The bounce back from 50p seems very strong

Intraday retracement done on reaching 53p and now bouncing back

re - Intraday retracement

my mental workout of 53p was close enough

MJ (menorca) - enjoying the sunshine in the balearics i assume ..... i know you generally trade very short term and on momentum, so it doesn't much matter that gold is now becoming unsexy .... but that apart, would you not concur that short term upside is pretty limited - e.g. assuming sp gets through the 50 dma level (here and now), i would have thought the next hurdle will be at 57.5 or thereabouts

upgrade from bank of america... old tp.50p new one 80p

Thanks - irlee57 -

Merrills note:

Centamin to Buy

We upgrade Centamin to Buy from Neutral today, new PO GBp85, equating to
70% potential upside.

􀂄 In our view, the potential catalyst that matters above all else is the outcome
of the court case challenging Centamin’s Sukari license. Press reports
indicate the case may ultimately go in Centamin’s favour which should lead
to a material re-rating in our view.

􀂄 The final decision on the court case is likely to take several more months.
Both Centamin and the Ministry of Petroleum (who have publicly stated their
support for the Sukari license) lodged their appeals at the end of last year.
We continue to see the potential for news-flow to be volatile in the meantime,
but overall we see a positive risk/reward balance from here. As we move
towards a resolution of the court case in the coming months, we believe the
potential rewards now outweigh the risks and that the shares now represent
a good buying opportunity.

􀂄 On the operational side, the group reported a strong set of Q4 results, and
FY2012 gold production was ahead of our estimates, the Street, and
guidance. We believe it is encouraging that production is now beating
guidance vs. disappointments in 2010 and 2011.

􀂄 We have always been of the view that Sukari is a world class gold deposit,
with strong growth potential to 400-500kozpa (from 263koz in 2012). The
potential for further expansion of the underground zone is particularly
exciting, in our view. Centamin has a good track record of growing reserves.
Our new GBp85 price objective is based on a “risked” NPV. This assumes:

􀂄 A significant likelihood (based on publicly reported comments from the
Egyptian Minister for Petroleum) that the court case goes in Centamin’s
favour confirming Centamin’s license to operate, and shares re-rate to NPV
value of GBp118 under this scenario.

􀂄 A remaining possibility that the court case goes against Centamin, the Sukari
license is declared void, and shares trade at cash value of GBp8 per share.

that's a hell of a caveat at the end ..... fairness and justice are unlikely to have anything to do with the outcome; more probably just a matter of how big a bribe in one format or another the plaintiffs (othert gov't heavies i assume) will demand

re - court case

< "IF" CEY loses the case, CEY can go to international tribunal and ask for compensation. There was one case in Egypt a few years ago in Sinai where the government took an investor's land and gave it to someone else. The international tribunal asked Egypt to pay £70 millions compensation.

In Egypt they know that CEY could go to international tribunal and this time the compensation will be much much more, imagine £70 millions for a piece of land, how about a gold mine!! Egypt could not even afford to pay £70 millions now.

So that amount of compensation would be added to the 8p!! >

no need to write in bold .... our eyesight is still more than adequate ......

being a cynical old fart, i'm still happy to stand by my comment of "large bribe required", though of course that will not be provable one way or another

cynic as the gold price drops CEY production cost of>$700 per oz is eating into profits.

i have watched this share for 2/3/4 years and even dabbled in it a few times ..... currently i just watch, but thanks for your customary intelligent comment - smarm smarm :-)

Analysts at Bank of America (BAML) highlighted the importance of Sukari,“the potential catalyst that matters above all else”. Arguing that the legal dispute was likely to go Centamin’s way

no need to write in bold .... our eyesight is still more than adequate ......

of course, a more rounded view of the situation would have been the addition of a further quote from that article .......

The final decision on the court case is likely to take several more months.

A good move up today and trying to reach 55p again not seeing since last week

Westhouse Securities Buy 52.85 52.75 65.00 65.00 Upgrades

2013 Production Guidance Update

2013 Production Guidance Update

Centamin is pleased to advise forecast production for the year 2013 from the Sukari Gold Mine of 320,000 ounces gold at a cash operating cost of US$700 per ounce with fuel at international prices This represents a 22% increase on the production delivered in 2012 and will mark the third successive year of output growth at Sukari on the path towards our long-term target of 450-500,000 ounces per annum from 2015 onwards.

The Stage 4 expansion project has experienced some delays for key items, materials and services. We now anticipate the bulk of commissioning activities of the expanded plant will commence during the second half of 2013, although there is no change to our expectation that the plant will be fully operational before the end of the year. Partly as a result of these delays, as well as general cost inflation, our estimate for the total capital cost of Stage 4 is now US$325 million, including contingency, as compared with the previous US$287.6 million, excluding contingency.

We look forward to providing our results for the year ended 31 December 2012 on 27 March.

Share price is very strong this morning breaking out from previous intraday highs

L2 is supper strong, on the buy order side is twice the size of sell

A tick up this morning.

Intraday chart

Retracement done, up again and testing 58p once more