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SEFTON RESOURCES INC - UNDERRATED OIL PRODUCER (SER)     

ptholden - 04 Aug 2006 19:53


???

Sefton Resources is an independent AIM quoted Oil and Gas company operating in the US. The companys principal current assets are two producing oilfields in California (Tapia Canyon Field and Eureka Canyon Field); it is also in the process of buying up prospective coal bed methane acreage (CBM) in Kansas.

Update from July 2007 AGM

Finance

I revealed in my annual statement that discussions were well advanced with
Banking institutions. The final phase of the agreement with a suitable bank
without complex and restrictive terms is now very near. This is weeks away
rather than months.

Oil

Oil production at Tapia has averaged 4,100 BO during the last five months. Which
is in line with last years levels. Once this finance is in place we will be able
to move ahead with drilling.

Drilling

We have stayed close to drilling contractors and we are ready to move forward
quickly when this finance is available.

Steam generation

The equipment is now in place at Tapia. Preparation time is needed to connect
the equipment and carry out the necessary trials required to get the main work
started. We anticipate this steaming will start in the next couple of months. If
successful a significant amount of oil resources will move into the Proven
Producing Reserves category.

Joint Ventures

Discussions continue with a number of interested parties to develop our Anderson
counties gas assets.

New finance team

A new CFO has been appointed with good knowledge and experience of the oil
industry. A new assistant to undertake all the daily needs has also been
appointed.


SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS:

Sefton has two oil fields, both producing. One is already profitable, and the other is breaking even. This should generate good cashflow for the company over the medium term.
Sefton owns 100% of both its major oil interests and is now demerging its non-controlled oil interests in order to concentrate on those where it has full control (Sefton has recently disposed of its Canadian assets for CDN450k cash).
Sefton is establishing a track record of using modern extraction technologies to improve the efficiency of its fields.

WEAKNESSES:

Sefton has suffered from a number of one-off factors. While these were out of the companys control the problems it has faced since 2002 have held back development and taken up management time. Investor disenchantment may account for the current low rating.

OPPORTUNITIES:

Sefton has acquired acreage for CBM (coal bed methane) in Kansas. CBM gas production is a thriving market and Sefton believes it has acquired the acreage at advantageous prices. While this is a longer term prospect it is an exciting one and could eventually eclipse the oil interests.
There are a number of other fields in the Ventura Basin and more generally in California as a whole that Sefton may look to target now its cash flows are stronger.
Eureka is a semi-exploration play which may contain further upside. This cannot yet be evaluated.
At this valuation the company may prove an attractive target for a larger player.

THREATS

Owing to its geographical location the company continues to be exposed to the threat of bush fires, canyon floods and geological interruption (earthquake risk). Sefton is taking steps to mitigate this risk by investing in Kansas and although Forest Basin area is susceptible to tornados - gas facilities have a minimal surface footprint.

LINKS:

Sefton Resources Web Site

Quarterly Update (Mar 08)

Operations Update Dated 14 January 2008

Hardman Report

Final Results - Year Ended 31 Dec 2006

2007 AGM & Update

In The News - Oil Barrel Dated 31 January 2007

Daily California Crude Oil Prices (MIDWAY SUNSET 13)

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SER&Si

kuzemko - 14 Oct 2008 15:01 - 2081 of 2350

ser- so far has done what it promised,i cant see why we should lose confidence in ser

barclay - 14 Oct 2008 20:43 - 2082 of 2350


Explosive type this into youtube ( The most important video you'll ever see) it is the first video int the results, watch it, trust me you will look at commodities in a different light after watching it.

By the way explosive, i searched for some bargains today,and i found 3 companies trading at 2 times earnings with 20% dividend yields covered 2.3 times, with broker strong buys and 500% price targets, it makes no sense, but one thing i know, they wont stay at that price forever.

barclay - 14 Oct 2008 21:01 - 2083 of 2350


the market is pricing in 50 dollars a barrel oil i think,that why sefton is down, but i dont think it will go down so low as opec wont be happy, i think about 70 dollars a barrel at the lowest, that is affordable and will bring inflation down, gordon brown is adding 5% to pensions next april, plus minimum wages should rise the same, because thats what the uk inflation rate is in september, even though inflation and interest rates are heading south,this will give people a bit of extra pocket money.

martinl2 - 14 Oct 2008 22:26 - 2084 of 2350

I would personally ignore dividend yields at the moment generally. I keep seeing companies cancel dividends to save money, at both ends of the market cap scale.

Opec meeting In a few weeks time and given what they said previously about their comfortable price range if the price is still at this level or lower we could start to see some dramatic cuts. For one thing their members will have gotten used to the high prices and the revenues they bring, so will more likely to comply with any cuts, and furthermore costs have risen due to investment in new fields and improved technologies. The era of low oil prices has gone. Think about it - without high oil prices there is no incentive to invest in all the new technologies and alternative hydrocarbon and other sources that are vital for the future and that have started to be looked at due to the recent high price levels.

Another factor is that the dollar is expected to start to weaken in the medium term which should increase commodity prices.

CWMAM - 15 Oct 2008 07:14 - 2085 of 2350

CHIEF EXEC BUYS SHARES @ 4P.

martinl2 - 15 Oct 2008 09:49 - 2086 of 2350

Nice one Jim lad. A decent purchase too.

kuzemko - 15 Oct 2008 13:29 - 2087 of 2350

goldman sachs reckons oil will rebounce back to 150 in near future.gazprom are still betting on 200up. i personally think that around 100 in near future is optimistic. for opec.opec and russian may not control the demand but they do control supply.

martinl2 - 15 Oct 2008 14:09 - 2088 of 2350

Goldmans have closed their short and gone long then?

capetown - 15 Oct 2008 14:36 - 2089 of 2350

Back in,cant resist at this price.

barclay - 16 Oct 2008 12:19 - 2090 of 2350

guys look on the bright side i oil goes down to 35 a barrel, and sefton freefalls to 1.5p i can almost double my holding and instead of having to wait for 10p to double my money it would then reduce it to about 4p to double, its all in the maths.
sefton will recover eventually, but to top up i will only doit at 1.5-2p level not at this one.

martinl2 - 16 Oct 2008 12:30 - 2091 of 2350

This will not go to 1.5p-2p level barclay. This is the bottom or thereabouts. This is an all-time low!

Director buying reported yesterday marks the bottom.

Think about this - the company has a $15m credit facility secured against its assets. So how can the whole company be worth only $3m?

kuzemko - 16 Oct 2008 13:28 - 2092 of 2350

barclay, nice one. i'm holding my cash for the same reason.if we get there. so far i think that it the panic that drives the markets down not the fundamentals

martinl2 - 16 Oct 2008 13:36 - 2093 of 2350

"Be greedy when others are fearful"

Don't let fear stop you purchasing Sefton at this ALL-TIME LOW!

What rational reason is there for it to go any lower, especially 1.5-2p - less than half the all-time low?

Follow the CEO, imo.

kuzemko - 17 Oct 2008 12:41 - 2094 of 2350

bernstein predicts oil at mid$70 next year.executives,analysts and bankers agree that the commodities boom is not dead yet.in addition the current period of low prices and credit crunch will delay project in china and the rest.meaning that the supply in future will be lower than forecast!!!

barclay - 17 Oct 2008 13:25 - 2095 of 2350


I dont think it will go to 1-2p either, i didnt know about the share consolidation, so i was thinking the all time low was sub 1p, but people sell off when scared, every day the media mentions the word credit crunch more times than john Mcain mentions joe the plumber, so if it does go to that we win(buymore) if it doesnt(we win) sefton share price is stable and we are on to the bear rally(eventually).

kuzemko - 19 Oct 2008 15:37 - 2096 of 2350

just read in IC-us gov predicts oil prices for 2008-2009 at $112.also they are 23mln bo under its reserves, and opec productions cuts, how much? we'll find out next week!!!

kuzemko - 29 Oct 2008 13:32 - 2097 of 2350

World will struggle to meet oil demand
By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London

Published: October 28 2008 23:32 | Last updated: October 28 2008 23:32

Output from the worlds oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.

Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.

The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term demand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.

future gas prices look to be moving up.latest deals around the world in CBM and gas pipe can only suggest growing demand

halifax - 30 Oct 2008 16:35 - 2098 of 2350

Bought a few today as usual shown as a sale by mm.

driver - 30 Oct 2008 16:41 - 2099 of 2350

halifax
Good price this must be the bottom I had a few last week..

halifax - 30 Oct 2008 16:47 - 2100 of 2350

driver we get the feeling mm's are not holding much in the way of small cap aim shares and have seen some big jumps in a few bombed out shares like CDN today, so just maybe now is the time to be putting a toe back in the water.
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