.

Cynic, you haven't a clue on Falklands.

????????????????????? what on earth is that about??????????

I shouldn't worry about it. Many of the posters on this thread have't got a clue either.

Cynic,

Just lately all you appear to do is criticise others.
Marlonmonkeys post was an excellent read but although you criticises all I see as a reply is a one liner of no content.
I very much doubt you even read it, as if you had 'You would know what it was about'.
Yes, it is extremely long, but if anyone is serious about Fogl they would have taken time to read it.
I am not saying that you should agree with the posts comments, but at least try to quantify your comments.
To me the post was well worth reading, whereas I find your recent posts not worth the effort.
The squelch button rides again, purely to save my valuable time.

greek - you are quite right that i never read post 2160, but then i made no comment about it either!

Todays presentation :


http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-2D0WMQ/2074476913x0x604773/91d68f22-d086-4f31-92e2-f089ded3f296/2012_10%20Exploration%20Conf%20Call%20[Final].pdf


Looks good, they do like Scotia prospect.

30% Geologic Chance of Success.

I had heard they were looking for a rig even now, this is confirmed it seems as they are looking at appraisal drilling end of 2013 going on until next round of exploratory drilling in late 2014.

Perhaps only 12 months without any drilling in the South Falklands now, after Loligo proved the hydrocarbons are there.

Very active - non stop drilling and appraising program from late 2013 onwards for years.........

Highlights of the broadcast (you can listen yourself on the link from Nobles website) :

Falklands.

They describe it as a "highlight” and "potential game changer".

It will provide a 40% increase in their global net acreage.

30 leads in lower cretaceous alone.

Noble contractually obliged to drill two more wells.

Will become operator in north part of the acrege in March 2013, southern part by March 2014.

They will have TWO seismic boats active in 2013. 1,500-2,500 sq miles of 3D.

Area offers early entry scale of, among others, Angola, GoM, Med and Norweigan North Sea.

AVO will be an important technical tool (one of their expertise).

They are hoping that Scotia will be a discovery, and they can use AVO to derisk further plays.

Timing of investment spending fits well with cashflow

Above ground risk v managemable. Sohistoicted regulation and financial terms positive.

During Jurassic FI attached to southern Africa. Thick wedges of deepwatrer tubidite sand.

Reservoir rocks proven by Darwin. Loligo proved working hydrocarbons system (gas) in northern acreage.

Scotia P75-25 145-960m barrels of oil, CoS at 30%. Primary risk is containment. Same rig as drilled Loligo “discovery”

If Scotia success, will have rigs drilling nearly continuously from late 2013.

Development drilling would begin in 2015. First production 2018/19'

Similar development plan as Noble carried out in equatorial guinea

I think the market likes the firm commitment from Noble to get appraising Scotia from late 2013 and continue appraising and exploration drilling "non stop" for many years...........

Pretty much going to hit the "fast track" appraise and explore button if Scotia hits oil.

First production late 2018 - but loads of exploratory drilling from late 2014 onwards......... after appraisal drilling starting from from late 2013.


I would guess FOGL will fund a lot of that from doing 3D on Loligo and Nimrod and then farming down Loligo/Nimrod/Garrodia from the current 75% - to Noble in return for free carries and reduced contributions on the appraisal of Scotia etc...

Proselenes:

The presentation and the question and answer time was good and encouraging by NOBLE, FOGL BOD’s have chosen well IMO.

I am trying to take a calm view on the Falklands; boy wouldn’t be fantastic IF there is the wonderful black stuff within the Scotia field? But, we need to concentrate on that horrible word.........IF!

Anyway, we will have countless opportunities with FOGL/Borders and Southern/DES/Rockhopper for many years to come…..All IMO.

if my quick scan was correct, you have at least another year in which to consider and contemplate your navel ..... in market terms, 12 months is an awfully long way away with seemingly little or no news in the interim

A COS of 30% is blinking good in my book

mean while rf and co are locked in with an sp drifting down to 50p

If as you state, the share price will drift down to 50p, no problems........Just buy more, hence more profits for the "Piggy Bank", and that’s without an oil find.......Yet!

Quick summary of the Q&A session that someone has done.


1) The first question on the topic was concerning why Scotia is viewed as an oil opportunity, rather than gas.

According to Noble, the gas discovery (Loligo) was in a younger section, whereas Scotia is in a deeper zone. Also, the seismic attributes are indicative. They had expected Loligo to be gas, but very different with Scotia.

2) Another question on seismic.

Will be shooting 3D at end of this year. Noble would prefer to explore after 3D, but was not possible in this case. 2D adds more risk, so really important to get the 3D. If fortunate, and initial well successful, great, but get a better picture with the 3D. Good thing is that Scotia will give some real data, and will set up for a multi-well exploration programme in 2014. Kind of like Noble did it in west Africa.

4) Question on Loligo.

Noble looking for oil, not gas, which was one of the reasons why they did not participate in the first well (which they felt would be gas)

5) Question on NFB, and rig market

Not going into the North Falkland basin. South large enough to keep them busy for a long time. Regarding the Loligo well, they do not have the well results. From own interpretation, they feel there is some encouragement regarding their hopes that Scotia will be an oil well. But they know no more than what is in FOGL's press release.Regarding 2014 programme, they are looking to see what rig might be available--c.20 rigs would fit in that environment, and just canvassing the market at the moment. Still early in the process.

6) Appraisal drilling question

Appraisal would be an appraisal of a Scotia success. If not successful, would start exploration after 3D. Length of drilling programme depends on success.

7) If thin sands came on Scotia, but oil shows, would this be OK?

Anything that indicates oil would be "very interesting". Quite broad possibilities as to what they'll find. 3D will tell them more. But "finding oil would be very encouraging"

Yes we're all waiting with baited breath in anticipation of a successful oil find!!..lol

baited breath rather implies a bad case of halitosis .... try "bated" :-))

Q&A Session

Why does Miss P copy and paste the same old stuff time after time?

Because she doesn't have anything better to do.

Why did Miss P create grannygirl to 'speak' to those she has squelched?

No idea and who cares anyway.

Yesterdays rise was probably a dose of panic by shorters...... they had been increasing their short positions as per below chart and Nobles positive vibes must have kicked them where it hurt and they had to close off quickly some of their positions.

:) LOL


Stock on loan chart below - which will capture a lot of the shorting of FOGL.




.

question #1 - why would the average joe want to hang on to fogl (and others) if there is not going to be any meaningful news for another year?

question #2 - how many shares are there in issue for fogl, for if only 3m on loan, that would look to be a piffling %?

cynic, why are you holding GKP now ? No major news coming for years, only possible bad news with Israel air strike on Iran early next year.

Also, the stock on loan is more relative to the normal daily trading volume in the shorter term - not the total shares in issue.

If a stock has turnover of 500K shares per day, but there is 3m stock on loan, it represents 6 days volume.

If a stock has turnover of 500m shares per day, but there is 500m stock on loan, it represents only 1 day volume.