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UPDATE: Falkland Oil and Gas shares slump as Scotia well disappoints
12:29 pm by Jamie AshcroftCity broker Oriel Securities says it is still a buyer of FOGL in the wake of today’s result.


Falkland Oil and Gas (LON:FOGL) has almost halved in value today after it revealed the Scotia well would not yield a commercial discovery.

The well was drilled to a depth of 5,555 metres and it hit mid-Cretaceous aged reservoirs as expected. Strong gas shows were encountered during drilling, and 50 metres of hydrocarbon bearing intervals were identified.

However, the reservoir was found to be ‘fairly poor quality’.

The well did not flow hydrocarbons in a subsequent test and this, FOGL says, indicates that the reservoir has low permeability.

Scotia is the final well in FOGL’s highly anticipated two well drill programme. It follows the Loligo well which also disappointed, because it could not be properly assessed.

FOGL will now plug and abandon the Scotia well. The company says it will have around US$220mln in cash after the drill programme is complete.

This afternoon FOGL shares were down 30.5p, or 48.4%, trading at 32.5p each.

City broker Oriel Securities says it is still a buyer of FOGL in the wake of today’s result.

According to analyst Arpit Harbhajanka, as a result of the recent farm-outs, FOGL’s investment case is about a longer term exploration story.

In a note today Harbhajanka highlights the positives, and points to the additional insight FOGL has gleaned from its two well programme.

“The drilling results are encouraging because they prove a working hydrocarbon system in a new play type, the mid Cretaceous Fan play, and also demonstrate that Scotia is a viable trap,” he said.

“The Scotia well provided an opportunity to obtain cuttings and core samples from potential source rocks. Analysis of these rock samples should provide valuable information on the oil and gas distribution in the basin.

“This analysis will, in our view, help the company identify potential oil bearing prospects for the next drilling campaign.”

Other brokers however reflected the disappointment that first of all the system was gas, and secondly that it was not viable in this location.

Like Harbhajanka they also point to some of the positives.

Indeed, Mike van Dulken head of research at CFD specialist broker Accendo said there could still offer potential for the longer term.

“With shares at such depressed levels, we may see some bullish bargain-hunters sniffing around at what they consider an attractive entry level for a story which could still have legs for recovery potential on any good news,” he said.

Meanwhile, in a note Merchant Securities analyst Brendan Long said: “The immediate result is a disappointment as the well did not confirm the presence of oil or high quality reservoir.

“The stratigraphic trapping system was effective and a working petroleum system has been confirmed, albeit a gassy one.”

good stuff dc - points to more of a drop given the city chatter also - may wait for 25p or lower instead cheers

Just for you gibby -

“With shares at such depressed levels, we may see some bullish bargain-hunters sniffing around at what they consider an attractive entry level

cheers & agreed - loads of 'perceived' bargains around right now :-)))

yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!! lol

Have you filled your boots?

for those bargain hunters looks like 31.75 / 32p was the bottom

magicjoe, have you realised when I said gas last week, it meant gas.

Not oil.

Gas, as you found out today and likely you lost a packet on your arrogance of insulting me instead of listening to what I was saying.


Over and out !!!!!!!!! (finally the last post for a long time, promise)

Superamp denies ever promoting FOGL ..... Superamp told everyone a while back that finding gas would be every bit as valuable as finding oil ..... Superamp, having told everyone that this was a surefire winner, changed his tune very recently to the point where he suddenly started saying that the chances of finding anything at all were slim ..... at least the last bit was true if nothing else ..... then suddenly Superamp says he is disappearing from the boards, but miraculously sees something that MJ wrote ..... how and why would all the above be i wonder ....... perhaps his lover GB knows

re - you lost a packet

Too early to say, I bought some this afternoon at 32.95p

last week purchase I only managed 3.10p per/share profit

so what was that crap all about that Superamp threw in your direction?

Pros was right in the end though.

Scotia is a HUGE failure - poor quality gas and low permeability.
15p probably a fair value


Exploration group Falkland Oil & Gas – one of four UK companies drilling for oil and gas around the islands – saw its shares halve in value after a disappointing update on its operations in the South Atlantic.

Its AIM-listed shares fell to an all-time low of 32p after the company said that gas reservoirs it drilled were of poor quality and that the results indicated that there was only low permeability. It said it would plug and abandon its Scotia well.

The market had expected better news after encouraging results from Desire last week and news last month that Rockhopper will start pumping oil from a well north of the islands in 2017. Analysts at Merchant Securities said: "The immediate result is a disappointment as the well did not confirm the presence of oil or high quality reservoir." In June FOGL, which is backed by US company Noble Energy and Italian utility Edison, announced a gas discovery but was not sure if it was commercial or not.

Sam Wahab, at Seymour Pierce, said that the much anticipated well results come as a disappointment for investors in the company, following its finding of gas at the Loligo prospect in September. Some analysts had questioned the chance of commercial success, particularly given the high costs of extraction and the fact that gas prices are currently depressed.

Despite the disappointing report Falklands chief executive, Tim Bushell, said: "During 2012 we have drilled two encouraging wells, both of which found hyrdro carbons and were completed safely and within budget. They reinforce our confidence in the potential of the basin."

Oil exploration by British companies in the area has sparked anger in Argentina, which claims the islands as its own territory. It has called the drilling there 'illicit' and threatened legal action.

hlyeo98

re - 15p probably a fair value

Someone talking from the back side as usual
cash alone $220M = 45.15p


Scotia is a HUGE failure - poor quality gas and low permeability.
from the guardian / Scotia is a HUGE failure

I tend to agree 15p is probably right.

any reason to support you wanting to buy cheap.

anyone can give a number, but is the words with it, that tend to make sence

MJ - i'm afraid $220m doesn't go far if you keep drilling dusters ..... FOGL only has real value if it finds something commercial which to my mind means OIL not verstinkene gas

Merchant Securities jumped on the bandwagon, cutting the stock to ‘sell’ from ‘buy’ and chopping almost 100p off its target price to leave it at 57.7p.

Still a sell imo.

LMAO.. most of you who are now coming on here(bashers/de-rampers) and spouting all this doom and gloom are no different to the posters you slag off for "suposedly" ramping..

YOU COULD'NT MAKE IT UP!!!!..

ah the little viperess ..... i have always admitted i held a small number of these and still do ass it happens, but my comments were valid neverthless