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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/9098633/Cristina-Kirchner-told-to-leave-Falkland-Islanders-alone-by-Argentinas-intellectuals.html

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I note that RAB (Does that stand for robbers and bandits??) have a 22% holding. Mind you they have a 23% holding in OXUS Which is a mind numbing failure at the moment.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/1038/edison-investment-research-talks-about-the-increase-in-interest-surrounding-the-falkland-oil-story-1038.html

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/9105796/Soaring-oil-prices-will-dwarf-the-Greek-drama.html


Monday 27 February 2012


........................While the escalation of any kind of tension in the Middle East is obviously a serious matter, I don't accept that is why crude prices are high. The real reason –perhaps less interesting, but no less important for that – is simple demand and supply. Global crude use is soaring, while the most important oil wells on earth are rapidly depleting.

In 2001, the world consumed 76.6m barrels of oil a day. Last year, just a decade on, global oil use was a hefty 89.1m barrels daily, 16pc higher. In 2011, the world economy was sluggish, with global GDP growth of 3.8pc, down from 5.2pc the year before. Yet world oil use still rose almost 1pc in 2011, with crude averaging $111 a barrel, more than 40pc up on 2010.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), the energy think-tank funded by oil-importing Western governments, tells us that crude demand is "declining remorselessly throughout the OECD [countries]". Given that the Western economies remain weak and the eurozone is heading for recession, the "advanced economies" are consuming less crude.

The fine print shows, though, that even IEA demand projections, which tend to be under-estimates, show OECD oil use falling just 0.9pc in 2012. Demand among the non-OECD countries, meanwhile, including the emerging giants of the East, is forecast to rise 2.8pc. Total global crude consumption, then, is still set to increase by another 1pc this year, mimicking the trend of 2011.

The "demand destruction" thesis is useful for Western governments desperate for cheaper oil – and it used to be true.

Not so long ago, OECD oil use was so important that a Western demand slow-down was enough to lower global crude prices, so helping us recover. But rampant non-OECD demand now accounts for half the world total – and rising. Chinese oil consumption has recently surged at an astonishing 7pc-8pc per annum and the People's Republic is now second only to the US in terms of overall oil use. Misguided Western attempts to print our way out of trouble using QE are also boosting crude demand and pushing up prices, as savvy investors seek an "anti-debasement" hedge.

On the supply side, while attention focuses on geopolitical flare-ups, the important trends relate to geology and finance. Since the 1960s, the discovery rate and size of new oil and gas fields has fallen markedly. More than four-fifths of the world's major fields are beyond peak production. The output of the world's largest 580 oil fields is declining at a 5.1pc annual average. Strategic oil traders now worry aloud about falling pressure at Saudi's Ghawar, Cantarell in Mexico and other giants fields. The credit-crunch, meanwhile, severely cut investment in exploration and well development, which is likely to have long term supply implications.

While there's lots of hype about tar sands and shale fuels, these new technologies often expend more energy than they create, while causing horrendous environmental and water-supply problems. Conventionally-produced crude will remain absolutely critical, and demand for it will spiral, until mankind bans the internal combustion engine, outlaws ammonium-based fertilisers, dismantles the global pharmaceutical industry and learns to live without plastic. I can't see that happening anytime soon.

Geo-political issues are important, of course. A major Gulf conflict would obviously see oil prices spike. But crude is now expensive not due to political argy-bargy but because of the fundamental truths of demand and supply. Meanwhile, Western share prices keep rising...................

Hi Proselenes,

This was an excellent article, showing that on average the only price for oil is UP.

Well, its day 30 now of the drill, out of a 45 day program which includes testing and P&A.

If rumours are to be believed they lost a week whilst a component was replaced on the BOP, which puts it at day 23 actual.

You would expect perhaps 9 days of the 45 to be for testing, sampling and P&A, so day 36 would be your TD date.

So, if they did lose a week we are 13 days from potential news.

If they did not lose a week we are 6 days from potential news.

Got to watch BOR volume from next week, from 5th of March, any leaks of good or bad news should see rampant buying or rampant selling either next week or the week after.

3 million volume or over on a single day will be worth looking into.............

Going to be fun now.

Needs a good solid break through 70p - then its blue sky.

Buying is strong on BOR and FOGL, not looking like PI's, they seem to be the sells.

Possibly now, as its getting in target range of BOR result, a few II's opening up long CFD positions - which should lead to gradual teasing up of BOR and FOGL now, fingers crossed.

With the sudden increase in buying yesterday I am intrigued.

Normally the rig stays within a 5M zone of the drill site, but yesterday she went off for a circuit around the site, perfect square, twice, now she is back on the drill site and within the 5M zone.

Looks like the rig did re-entry yesterday and is now drilling ahead again, if you zoom in on the link.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=308243000¢erx=-57.75184¢ery=-51.57723&zoom=10&type_color=9

So the buying of yesterday could be an indication as the map shows, drilling ahead again after the BOP pipe issue.

That would mean 2 weeks lost due to one of the pipes being broken on the BOP.

16th Feb to 29th Feb downtime.

13 days of no drilling.

Taking the 45 day schedule and saying day 36 should be TD ahead of testing and then P&A and we are now at day 31.

If 13 days lost we are looking at being on day 18 real time. That would mean 18 more days to go or a target for TD of circa 19th March.

Therefore volume increases should be watched out for from Monday 12th March onwards IMO.

Anything over 3M volume on BOR will be a leak IMV.

With the sudden increase in buying yesterday I am intrigued.

Normally the rig stays within a 5M zone of the drill site, but yesterday she went off for a circuit around the site, perfect square, twice, now she is back on the drill site and within the 5M zone.

Looks like the rig did re-entry yesterday and is now drilling ahead again, if you zoom in on the link.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=308243000¢erx=-57.75184¢ery=-51.57723&zoom=10&type_color=9

So the buying of yesterday could be an indication as the map shows, drilling ahead again after the BOP pipe issue.

That would mean 2 weeks lost due to one of the pipes being broken on the BOP.

16th Feb to 29th Feb downtime.

13 days of no drilling.

Taking the 45 day schedule and saying day 36 should be TD ahead of testing and then P&A and we are now at day 31.

If 13 days lost we are looking at being on day 18 real time. That would mean 18 more days to go or a target for TD of circa 19th March.

Therefore volume increases should be watched out for from Monday 12th March onwards IMO.

Anything over 3M volume on BOR will be a leak IMV.

Given the estimated 10-25% chance of success and the worries about the possibilities of spills + the inherrent problems of operating down there I have hopped out, but rewards favour the brave!!

I have come out, no doubt too early, but at a profit and while I am miffed I have missed out a bit, I feel more relaxed without the worries!

and fools rush in etc etc

I think that FOGL has something but BOR I'm not so sure ...if BOR has something then FOGL with similar geology will rocket as well.....just as risky as before Rockhopper hit the black stuff but much less risk for FOGL due to the huge area that they have in which to drill....best to have more FOGL than BOR if you take in the risks involved.....I'm in both but by golly it's a risk.....but I'm prepared for disappointment.....

I think both are as risky as each other, lets face it both companies have limited finance to drill with before being required to raise funds!

Shortie, with both of them owning 100% of potentially BILLIONS of recoverable barrels, they can easily farm out.

This is the advantage of having BILLIONS of barrels potential and low share prices - farming out adds value as the value is not in the price.

Unlike other companies who have high share prices and smaller finds, when they farm out they can lose value as they are giving away something thats in the price.

It's just rf getting pre-RNS nerves as usual! We can usually tell when TD is getting close as his posts get dizzier & dizzier!!! ;o) [can you still say 'golly' these days?]

By golly miss molly !....(great song...a classic)....if you start banning that...nuts....getting very nervous....could be fantastic or not....

It is understood that the Argentinians have managed to get hold of a second hand drilling rig ready for when they get possession of the FI fields,

Note. I would have just posted the picture, but don't know how

http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/05/dayintech_0526

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