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Centamin Egypt : Worth waiting for... (CEY)     

pthwaite - 20 Sep 2004 10:27

CEY is a gold mining company operating in Egypt. It was ordered by the Egyptian Government to stop drilling pending a legal dispute brought against the company by a government minister.

Since then, the whole Government cabinet was replaced a few months ago and the minister now in charge of Mining is believed to be positive on Western investment in the country. CEY are pushing for this minister to allow them to continue drilling ASAP; investers are waiting....patiently.

As soon as the company gets the go-ahead to continue drilling, the share price will move north; CEY has plenty of gold in this mine and it is (apparantly) the case of "raking" it out rather than drilling for it!

Check them out...worthy of a punt.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=CEY&Si

micky468 - 04 Nov 2009 16:06 - 241 of 2354

cynic when this go main list on November 5, can you see price falling back slightly . or do you think the market will open there arms to it.

cynic - 04 Nov 2009 16:45 - 242 of 2354

if i was that bloody clever i'ld be making even more money than marni!

in honesty, i think CEY is an excellent fledgling company that looks to be heading strongly in the right direction.
i cannot imagine that moving to the main market will harm its price per se, but of course all stocks, no matter how good, rise and fall according to sentiment and other factors

skinny - 04 Nov 2009 16:57 - 243 of 2354

I guess they will be some upward movement - however small - as tracker funds take up shares.

chessplayer - 04 Nov 2009 19:05 - 244 of 2354

I see that Evolution have downgraded CEY from a buy to add,with price at 118. Merrill however rate it a buy with a price of 190.
CEy are expected to churn out some 200,000 ounces in the first year,rising to 500K by 2012. A factor which should help to make it a takeover target.
The worlds biggest producer of gold, Randgold Resources produce 650K .They have a market cap of just over 3.5 billion. CEY is at 1.3 billion.These figures suggest there is some milage left,especially with the rising price of the yellow stuff.

niceonecyril - 04 Nov 2009 22:54 - 245 of 2354

CP for me a little disappointed with the SP considering the POG,but as your posts
points out a M/Cap of 1.3billion.What is needed is imo, an update to let the market know how production and costs are coming out? Its a large M/C considering no word on initial output,would be nice if with POG at these levels the market had something to get its teeth into?
cyril

chessplayer - 04 Nov 2009 23:15 - 246 of 2354

Cyril,don,t lose sight of the fact that CEY stood at 83p at the beginning of September.Two nonths later,the sp is up by over 60%.A fantastic rise by anybody's standards.
After all,Rome was not built in a day,or even 2 months. Just ask NERO! (who they say tried to torch the lot!Or,perhaps he fiddled while somebody else did the torching.)

niceonecyril - 05 Nov 2009 10:58 - 247 of 2354

CP yes your right but a lot of that has to do with the POG.Its just to get the full benifit i'd like to see a progress report,it is afterall a 1.3b company.
cyril

chessplayer - 06 Nov 2009 08:30 - 248 of 2354

I was listening a little earlier to Charlie Morris ,head of HSBCs Absolute Return, re where the price of gold goes from here.In his opinion,gold mining companies in general had a long way to go yet.The main of the reason, he felt, was that up till now they had been badly managed.He was a bit sketchy on why this was the case,but a bit of "food for thought."

niceonecyril - 06 Nov 2009 08:42 - 249 of 2354

A banker talking of bad management,hmm? lol
Seriously though nice to know that potential,still think a update of some sort
is needed to assure the market everythings in order?
cyril

niceonecyril - 09 Nov 2009 09:47 - 250 of 2354

Transfering to the main market seems to have done the trick,up now at 147p.
cyril

micky468 - 09 Nov 2009 09:51 - 251 of 2354

sold my AVM to buy CEY.. last week, shame but looking like the right move thanks cynic

Balerboy - 09 Nov 2009 10:02 - 252 of 2354

Also in but wished I'd done it earlier, good luck all.

kernow - 09 Nov 2009 16:38 - 253 of 2354

In my SIPP at 92p in August. Makes a nice change for me :-) No reason to sell yet imho

chessplayer - 10 Nov 2009 08:16 - 254 of 2354

Especially considering the rising gold price.(although down a bit this morn)

chessplayer - 10 Nov 2009 11:01 - 255 of 2354

Price is down 6,but it should be noted that 2/3s of 4 mill trades are buys.

niceonecyril - 11 Nov 2009 08:52 - 256 of 2354

One peice from the following,

Company remains debt and hedge free
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200911110700063057C

cyril

chessplayer - 11 Nov 2009 09:28 - 257 of 2354

The market ,however is not too impressed,judging by the fact the sp is down while many mining stocks are up strongly.

niceonecyril - 11 Nov 2009 09:43 - 258 of 2354

Some profit taking and settling down now in the main market, would think? So now an idea of whats what? Production by year end, which if the POG holds up,makes for an exciting and profitable 2010? aimo
cyril

required field - 11 Nov 2009 09:45 - 259 of 2354

The way gold is going (up $13 dollars today....gold will start to rise in big lumps now not one or two dollars at a time)....I can see the sp climbing right up to 170p or even higher perhaps 180p...unhedged and coming into big production by the year end...the sharp rise in gold could not have been better for this miner.

chessplayer - 16 Nov 2009 13:42 - 260 of 2354

An article from The Daily Telegraph on 11 November.I would say that this represents a good reason to be optimistic on the continuing rise in gold prices.




Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out
Global gold production is in terminal decline despite record prices and Herculean efforts by mining companies to discover fresh sources of ore in remote spots, according to the world's top producer Barrick Gold.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 7:20PM GMT 11 Nov 2009

Comments 235 | Comment on this article

Liquid gold: Gold is poured from the induction kiln Photo: JULIAN SIMMONDS
Aaron Regent, president of the Canadian gold giant, said that global output has been falling by roughly 1m ounces a year since the start of the decade. Total mine supply has dropped by 10pc as ore quality erodes, implying that the roaring bull market of the last eight years may have further to run.

"There is a strong case to be made that we are already at 'peak gold'," he told The Daily Telegraph at the RBC's annual gold conference in London.


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Gold: how high can the price go? "Production peaked around 2000 and it has been in decline ever since, and we forecast that decline to continue. It is increasingly difficult to find ore," he said.

Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia. South Africa's output has halved since peaking in 1970.

The supply crunch has helped push gold to an all-time high, reaching $1,118 an ounce at one stage yesterday. The key driver over recent days has been the move by India's central bank to soak up half of the gold being sold by the International Monetary Fund. It is the latest sign that the rising powers of Asia and the commodity bloc are growing wary of Western paper money and debt.

China has quietly doubled holdings to 1,054 tonnes and is thought to be adding gradually on price dips, creating a market floor. Gold remains a tiny fraction of its $2.3 trillion in foreign reserves.

Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dubbed the "People's Central Bank" have accumulated 1,778 tonnes, making them the fifth biggest holder after the US, Germany, France, and Italy.

Ross Norman, director of theBullionDesk.com, said exploration budgets had tripled since the start of the decade with stubbornly disappointing results so far.

Output fell a further 14pc in South Africa last year as companies were forced to dig ever deeper - at greater cost - to replace depleted reserves, not helped by "social uplift" rules and power cuts. Harmony Gold said yesterday that it may close two more mines over coming months due to poor ore grades.

Mr Norman said the "false mine of central banks" had been the only new source of gold supply this decade as they auction off reserves, but they are switching sides to become net buyers.

Barrick is moving fast to wind down the remaining 3m ounces of its infamous hedge book over the next twelve months, an implicit bet on rising gold prices over time.

Mr Regent said the company had waited too long to ditch the policy, which has made the company enemy number one among 'gold bug' enthusiasts. The hedges oblige Barrick to deliver part of its gold into futures contracts set long ago at levels far below today's spot prices.

The strategy worked well in the falling market of the 1990s, but has cost the company dear in lost profits this decade. "Hindsight is always 20/20," said Mr Regent, who was appointed from the outside earlier this year.

Barrick bit the bullet in the third quarter, taking a $5.7bn charge against earnings on hedge contracts. Liberation is at last in sight. In 2001 the hedge book topped 20m ounces.

Mr Regent said the hedge policy has weighed badly on the share price and irked investors, becoming a bone of contention at every meeting. The financial crisis brought matters to a head as markets fretted about counterparty risk. "It was clear to me that there were a significant number of institutions who wouldn't invest in Barrick because of the hedge book," he said.

Barrick produced 1.9m ounces of gold last quarter, down from 1.95m a year earlier. Costs have been "trending down" to $456 an ounce, though rising energy prices pose a fresh threat. Total reserves are 139m ounces, far ahead of rival Newmont Mining at 86m.

The hedge book venture has not been a happy one, but those who predicted that Barrick would eventually "blow up" on its contracts may owe the company an apology
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