http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

that did cross my mind, though there'll prob be a significant bounce before that though not sure where - 200?

How can anybody say that there won't be a bid short term , an unexpected bid could come from a host of company's , American , Chinese , Indian et.

that there won't be is always a good bet, for obvious reasons :-)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2012/mar/12/gulf-keystone-drilling-update

A day away from the screen,not a pretty sight. Tempted to add at these prices,as i'm
looking lomg term and a lot higher SP?

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same here cyril.,.

prob no more than a dcb this morning, but better up than down .... bought a few more at 239 and shall now have to see how greedy i am!

Looking a little like i've missed the bargain rate,still as you say, better up.

there's a number of chunky blocks of 25/30,000 on offer between 255 and 260, so it'll be interesting to see what happens if/when that level is reached

Possible we could have some news of BB on the 20th?

Genel Energy plc

13 March 2012

Genel Energy plc

Update on analyst meeting for Preliminary Results

As previously announced Genel Energy plc will be announcing its preliminary results for the period ending 31 December 2011 on Tuesday 20 March 2012.

Please note that a conference call for analysts and investors will be held at 11am on the day, replacing the meeting at the offices of Goldman Sachs announced on 22 December.

Not sure what error they were refering to?

Part of an e-mail reply i have received from head of compliance at Seymour Pierce this morning.
I will leave you to arrive at your own conclusions.

I have now spoken with the colleague who mentioned the CNN appearance to Mr. Youngson and my understanding of the circumstances has moved on from yesterday when we spoke. I have now discovered that my colleague was sent a link to the old CNN interview and had not verified the date when relating the facts to Mr. Youngson. The clip was not played on a CNN broadcast.

As noted yesterday, we appreciate your bringing this error to our attention and are happy to correct our note. An erratum has been published this morning and circulated to our normal distribution list.

Here is what the problem is about and could have been responcable for this am's
SP collapseand now corrected, it's recovered?

Bucks: what the head of compliance says is not logical. He claims that the analyst's view us INDEPENDENT OF THE ERROR.

But that cannot be so.

The error led the analyst to think that Todd was saying that The company WILL NOT BE SOLD until the long term, whatever that means.

Such a view OBVIOUSLY influences the analyst. And to argue the alternative, WHY DID THE ANALYST CHOOSE TO MAKE REFERENCE TO IT?

And also WHY DID THE UNNAMED COLLEAGUE CHOOSE TO SEND IT TO THE ANALYST?

Not easy questions to answer...

imes today:

Published at 12:01AM, March 13 2012

Even by the standards of the average oil explorer, Gulf Keystone’s share price has been erratic. Since I tipped it as part of this column’s portfolio at the start of this year, at a price of 189½p, the shares have edged past 425p on the belief that Exxon, which is also involved in Kurdish Iraq, would bid.

They collapsed back and closed down another 47p at 240½p last night. I had suggested taking some profits at about 380p. The market worried that Exxon might not bid; Tony Hayward’s Genel Energy, which is also in northern Iraq, denied any intention to make an approach on Gulf or other Kurdish explorers, saying that Exxon had pushed the prices to unreasonable levels.

The problem Exxon has is that it is also involved near Basra and there has long been disagreement between Baghdad and the Kurdish regional authorities over how to exploit the country’s oil reserves. The Iraqis had insisted the Americans decide between doing business with them or with the semi-autonomous Kurds to the north. That seemed to put paid to any chances of a bid, but last week senior Exxon figures insisted that they were committed to going ahead in both regions and that contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government would be honoured even as the Basra assets were developed.

Other big players, including Total, of France, are also interested, and the way in is to buy small explorers, such as Gulf and Heritage Oil. The game isn’t over yet. Kurdish Iraq is a much safer place to do business than elsewhere in the country.

Gulf put out an update on its operations there yesterday. It was a mixed bag, according to Dougie Youngson, an oil analyst at Seymour Pierce. At the main prospect, the Shaikan field, six out of seven planned tests are completed and the results are promising. At another, the Akri-Bijeel block, work was disrupted by a lightning strike; the expectation is that this will be sold for perhaps $200 million to fund development at Shaikan.

The company has invested $400 million so far. It is seeking to build a pipeline that will allow the oil, at present sold into the local market, to be exported. The eventual cost of Shaikan could approach $7 billion; at its peak it could produce half a million barrels a day.

Further updates could drive rises in the price, as could bid speculation.

Dr Youngson has a target price of 374p for the shares. Not a time to go short, for investors who relish a gamble.

It's RenCap
PM
i think!
PM
Anyway, will jsut get this up and then check
PM
Iraq: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd - The race is on: M& or capital raise?


* Operational update - negative market reaction. Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP)
provided an operational update on its operations in Kurdistan yesterday (12
March). A positive update from the Shiakan-4 flow test was not enough to
compensate for what we see as an unclear upgrade of resources at Akri Bijeel,
lower-than-expected production volumes at the Shaikan test facilities and no
news on the Ber-Bahr exploration well.
PM
* Was Exxon adding to negative sentiment yesterday? A Reuters article (seemingly
unrelated to GKP) suggested that Exxon negotiated with the Iraqi government to
get its cost recovery from the West Qurna-1 field paid in oil in lieu of cash.
Although we would not try to read too much into this news, it seems to us some
investors have taken this article as a clear sign that Exxon is not going to
give up the West Qurna-1 field that easily (i.e. it may still be willing to hold
off on Kurdistan). While still early days, this appears to be in line with our
expectation that Exxon will try to please both sides as long as it can; hence
additional M& activity from Exxon in Kurdistan may not happen as soon as some
might have expected.
PM
* A rather unusual update on the Akri Bijeel discovery. GKP is currently trying
to sell its interest from this block. The company provided an independent
evaluator's mean estimate of 3.9bn bl of oil-in-place for its Bekhame-1
discovery. However the update seemed unusual to us for two reasons: 1) the 3.9bn
bl estimate is significantly higher than the operator's estimate of 2.4bn bl,
and we have not yet been able to confirm with management whether this is due to
additional information or just a different evaluator; and 2) the wording of the
resource update included the following text: "no hydrocarbons had been produced
to surface", "considerable portion of the oil resource is likely to comprise
heavy oil", and "evaluation would be required as to whether the oil is
commercially recoverable". Given that the company is in the process of selling
this block, it appears to us as if GKP may be trying to manage investor
expectations on the sale. This block currently accounts for $162mn in our GKP
valuation
PM
* M& or capital raise? With Shaikan-5 being sidetracked, Ber-Bahr seemingly
going deeper than originally planned, low Shaikan production and the pipeline
going ahead, capex this year may be higher than we had expected. If the company
is not able to sell its Akri Bijeel interest, we are almost certain that GKP
will need to raise money by year-end. We also note that should a partial or full
M& not happen by year-end, it would likely encourage institutional investors
that want exposure to the name to wait for the inevitable capital raise rather
than buying on the open market. Given the current share price, we think it will
be interesting to see what kind of M& premium (if any) institutional investors
will be willing to pay in a potential capital raise.
If you have any questions or comments regarding this report, please contact

Cyril, you are starting to become a victim of your own hype!

Harry,just trying to create some interest by sharing info, little coming from others?

there isn't much factual to report ..... however, it's of modest interest that sp is stalling at +/-266 which is a "magical" rise of 16.67% from the true trading low of this morning, just as yesterday's fall was a similar % down

And all credit to you cyril, but much of it is regurgitated number crunching, which is open to interpretation. There must be millions of pages written by 'experts', but the fact is the sp is stuck below where most private investors want it to be. The one negative piece recently published was the HSBC broker note, which seems to have been pretty accurate in it's prediction, much to the dismay of all. There seems to be little connection between reality and sentiment with this stock, imo.

tell us who is investing in the middle east at the moment?

many of the major oilfield service companies are already working their socks off in southern IRAQ ...... IRAN is currently a no-go area, but won't be indefinitely ..... SAUDI is a terrific market both for chemicals and oilfield development ..... SYRIA is not of much interest ..... EGYPT is an interesting market and we have worked there in a modest but successful way for many years ..... am currently working on a project for LIBYA .... ISRAEL has a successful chemical industry which we cater for in a modest way

where have i missed?