http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Chevron apparently confirmed (almost - next week?) in Kurdistan - with Total apparently to follow with Western Zagros (as per Noble Trader?)

Sunday times article - on subscription - copy below - interesting times ahead???

81339.ece

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1081339.ece

Oil giant’s Kurdish deal defies Iraq

Danny Fortson Published: 15 July 2012
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CHEVRON is to become the latest oil giant to thumb its nose at Baghdad and buy into Kurdistan, the semi-autonomous region of Iraq locked in a protracted battle with the central government over oil rights.

The American company is in advanced talks to buy the rights to two exploration zones from Reliance Industries, the Indian conglomerate controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani.

The deal, thought to be worth at least $200m, could be announced this week.

It will be a boost for Tony Hayward, the former BP boss whose London-listed group, Genel Energy, is already the largest producer in the region.

Kurdistan has been at loggerheads with Baghdad since 2004, when it began inviting western groups in to look for oil. Baghdad said the exploration deals were illegal and threatened to blacklist any firm that dealt with the Kurds.

Companies found vast fields, however, drawing the attention of the world’s biggest producers. Exxon Mobil shocked Baghdad last year when it signed an agreement for half a dozen Kurdistan exploration blocks.

It is understood that Total, the French giant, is also in talks to buy a stake in fields owned by Western Zagros, a small independent listed in Canada. It is understood that at least part of the share would come from the Kurdish government, which has a large equity holding.

The rush of industry giants into the sector comes amid growing frustration with the bureaucracy and political in-fighting that has hampered development of Iraq’s giant fields in the south.

Genel does not plan to tie its future entirely to the region. The company is scouring Africa for exploration opportunities and plans to unveil a portfolio of new assets within the next couple of months.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-15/chevron-to-bid-200-million-for-kurdish-oil-blocks-sunday-times.html

http://uk.advfn.com/news/DJN/2012/article/53466699


Could the fun and games be about to begin?

From Iraq report: 18.7.12
Baghdad leaders are accusing Turkey of abetting an illegal fuel trade with Kurdistan, with potentially dire implications for future relations and investment.

well they would wouldn't they ...... yet more sabre-rattling, more of which is bound to occur in the coming months or even years; if nothing else, it's good for local public consumption

That's what Mandy Rice Davis said

except on that occasion it was in the singular, aimed at Lord Astor

Didn't he die when the Titanic hit an iceberg ? the man's an imposter.

rather less so than andrew davis, ceo of the failed von essen hotel group ..... he had misplaced ideas of grandeur, fondly imagining that he was as astute as richard caring and his wallet as deep ..... he wrecked all sorts of good hotels while swanning around in his private helicopted

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4410739

http://investor.chevron.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=130102&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1716310&highlight=

23:01
My first AGM
AFC-AL
53
As somebody that has been around for several years who has only rarely posted, I thought I would share my thoughts on today's trip to Paris for my first AGM.

Well, to start with our journey to Paris meant a very early start, arriving in Southampton airport at 06:15. Whilst waiting for our flight I chatted to Harry Rednapp and Kevin Bond who were off to Lytham to watch the golf. Harry was very engaging and even asked us where we were going. So if he didn't know about GKP before, he does now.

Anyway, we arrived at the hotel at about 11 am and quickly realised there were a lot of GkP investors in little groups around the reception area and started a group of our own. The three of us were joined by several other investors, so lots of introductions to some well and some less well known individuals.

At 12:00 the queue started to build to enter the AGM and at 12:20 I joined the queue to register. Whist waiting to sign in the BOD arrived, led by Todd. They all appeared very comfortable and relaxed as they exchanged greetings with the people in the queue.

So it kicked off just after 12:30 and I won't pretend the next few minutes were not slightly uncomfortable. Todd was clearly vexed and articulated some frustrations with recent investor actions. This included comments about investors abusing the staff in the investor relations team as well as how today's meeting would be managed.

After this rather tense introduction Todd went through the individual resolutions and how the proxy voting had panned out, except the resolution to reappoint LordTruscott. Todd explained that Lord Truscott had decided to not re-stand. This seemed to be greeted with a degree of surprise.

The attending investors then voted and had the forms collected and would be counted with results given later.

Todd then went into his presentation and questions and whilst I will leave it to others to capture the detail I found myself engrossed by the demeanour of Todd during what was still an uncomfortable pitch.

I did make some notes though and these were primarily positive and included statements like.....

This is the largest discovery in over 40 years

A remarkable discovery

One of the largest projects In the world

Humungous ( used by JG to describe Shaiken)

The KRG expects GKP to provide 50% of the total KRG exports

GKP have generated more growth than any other company in the history of the AIM market.

When asked whether Exxon could afford to take out GKP Todd responded with " they could take us out without even asking for a discount". He went on to explain that Exxon is the equivalent to the 8th largest economy in the world.

Apart from the issues at the end which I think should only be raised by the individual concerned I thought that Todd worked hard to keep the meeting focused and whilst his answers may not have been as complete as some would have liked, he did stick to his guns and on occasions skilfully introduced some humour.

The final positive for me was the fact that Todd gave plenty of time for questions, and the board all stuck around after if you wanted to talk to them. I took advantage of this and got all the BOD to sign my copy of The Prize. When Todd was asked, he duly obliged and said that at some point in the future Kurdistan and GKP will have its own section. This left me feeling that the day was very worthwhile and even more confident about my investment.

The next couple of hours was spent in the bar discussing and sharing our thoughts on the day. Thank you to the guys that travelled out with me and to everybody who took the time to share their thoughts in this and other investments.

Whilst this post will not aid you in your own investment decisions with regards GKP it might encourage investors to attend this meeting in the future ( if there is another one!)

Alan.

From iraq oil report:
The prime minister said he will take "all necessary measures" to prevent Exxon's work in Kurdistan, after the White House affirmed its opposition to the deal.

.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4412616

http://www.rudaw.net/english/interview/4993.html

http://iraqidinarchat.net/?p=7278

Time will tell ?

GKP Edison Note

http://www.mediafire.com/view/?b5zi2b4uuskqqw1

.

If you do some number crunching you get some wildly different figures based on the Edison report.

Recovery factor range is potentially large.

If you use a figure of 13 billion barrels of the famous GKP "OIP" (Oil In Place).


Run that with license percentage (54%) and Recovery Factor of 22%, but then GKP will only get 8% of the price of a barrel of oil (all PSC terms) - so taking the 8% into account you get :

13,000,000,000 OIP x 54% (WI) x 22% (RF) and times 8% (PSC) = Net "real value" 123 million barrels of oil to GKP as reserves.

-------------

Now run that calculation through with an 15% low end Recovery Factor, which is possible.

13,000,000,000 OIP x 54% (WI) x 8% (RF) and times 15% (PSC) = Net "real value" 84 million barrels of oil to GKP as reserves.



Is it any wonder the PI's love the big OIP figures and the "city" laughs at the lack of a recovery factor being given.

I think, being a cynic, we might not get to see any Recovery Factors forthcoming from GKP for a long time, the OIP figures look far more attractive than the bottom end potential of them actually getting the cash value of just 84 million barrels of oil from their OIP of 13 billion barrels.


IMO, DYOR, NAG etc...

From Iraq report......The third super-major to sign oil deals with Kurdistan, Total has bought stakes in two exploration blocks from Marathon, risking an existing contract with Baghdad.

I should stick to ramping fogl prick...oops pro