http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Going back to this below and taking into account a 93m pounds placing at 2.75 and call it 20% dilution (even though its lower).

New valuation would be :


On the basis of 170m barrels value Rockhopper at 501p

That would consist of 444p for diluted Sealion plus 57p of cash


If Sea Lion ends up after appraisal and 3D work at 242m barrels recoverable it would be 632p for Sea Lion alone.

If Sea Lion ends up after appraisal and 3D work at 500m barrels recoverable it would be 1305p for Sea Lion alone.

And those figures still have nothing in for exploration upside (all those new attractive targets), nothing in for Rachel sidetrack, nothing in for Elaine etc. etc. etc.

Given how it now looks like the 2 RKH license in the north east are very prospective and it seems where this is where lots of oil is, having nothing on for exploration upside might seem unfair, but hey, best be conservative and leave something in the bag for later.

The only question mark is the 3rd firm well for me, 2 of the 3 firm 2011 drills (from the 3 firm and 5 options deal) will be Sea Lion appraisals.

The third, will it be another Sea Lion appraisal (in the southerly section if 3D is good) or will they go exploring and pop one in Jason or one of their new targets we are yet to hear about. Chitter chatter says they now have "5 highly attractive exploration plays in those 2 north east licenses around Sea Lion". So will it be 3 firm Sea Lion appraisals with the 5 options being exploration after Sea Lion is fully appraised ? Or will one of the 3 firm drills be exploration. Thats the question for me.

If the 3D seismic looks good on the southerly extension of Sea Lion, and 700m recoverable barrels is at play, a third appraisal in Sea Lion is far more needed than exploring those other 5 prospects for now, better lower risk than higher risk, best to prove Sea Lion beyond any doubt as being "world class" and then move on from there.


PS. If I get any figures wrong its through lack of caffeine this morning.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


From earlier this week.


Context for the Rockhopper beatdown today:

Disclaimer: This document is general market commentary and does not constitute a research report. This document is prepared by Canaccord Genuitys Institutional Sales for informational purposes only.


I saw Sam Moody CEO of Rockhopper this morning - I think today's move is a great BUYING opportunity.


The Chronological Order of Events

Pre drilling the CPR estimate by RPS was 170m barrels (P50)
The P90 - P10 range is 57m barrels to 670m barrels!
Post drilling all agreed there was more oil than expected so RPS upgrades estimate to 242m barrels
The stock rallies to 500p plus
We upgrade our target price to 641p - our valuation of Sealion (622p) & cash (19p)
Work continues on identifying the first appraisal well using Geo-physical data - designed to be pessimistic to eliminate 9 of the 10 potential sites for this well.
A potential capital raise required a confirmation of the CPR
The only 'new' data was the Geo-physical report - so this was made available to the CP
This is interpreted by the CPR as 'negative' and the estimate reduced to 170m barrels
As the company had that information it has to be released to the market
So today the stock is back 20% to 380p!



What has changed?

Only the CPR estimate!
There is NO new seismic data
There is NO new test data
Nothing has changed with the flow data.
The CPR is estimating the size of a 50km square oil field from the results from one well - this is clearly a near impossible task and has to be approached conservatively.
What happens now?

The results of the Rachel well (7.5% RKH) are due at the end of October.
A seismic testing ship will arrive this December - to be joined by a second ship in early 2011.
Seismic testing will take 3 months with a further 2-3 months of interpretation.
The rig for the appraisal well will arrive at the earliest at the end of January 2011.
Drilling could commence in February 2011
Valuation

On the basis of 170m barrels we value Rockhopper at 545p
This consists of 526p for Sealion Plus 19p of cash
This give 40%+ upside from 380p!
This assumes nothing from Rachel
This assumes no more positive data from the 3+ appraisal wells on Sealion
This assumes nothing from the 5 other prospects RKH has in the region.
Today there has been some disappointing news for Rockhopper - the price is now reflecting ONLY disappointing news - the weight of probabilities is tipping in our favour!

Had a quick look at Encore (EO.) - by the looks of the valuation there (350m market cap for 20m barrels recoverable for their share) RKH should be now about a 3 billion pound market cap.



..........Been looking at this.

EO. have 15% of Catcher and 16.6% of Cladhan.

Looking at what other companies are willing to say it appears you could, if you so wished allocate at the moment perhaps 20m recoverable barrels to EO. for their share for Catcher/Cladhan.

With a 350m market cap and only presently, at most, you could say 20m barrels recoverable for their share, is it not rather toppy ?

Yes appraisals might push that recoverable figure up, but for now 350m market cap for 20 million barrels ?...............

So then; let's see if this prediction posted by (not written by) Mr P comes to fruition, in particular the last part!

Merrill doing a placing of $150m at 275p a share! Share to rally so hard next week!

cynic, I did not write that line, its from "cool_runner" whoever that is.

Firstly, if the placing is done at 2.75 then so be it, these things happen and large swings like this is why I always recommend if you buy you buy fully paid for shares. No spreadbets, no margin, no CFD, no T20..... just buy plain good old shares and sleep easy at night and also you ride the troughs and the peaks with indifference, as I have now. 15 months down the line is where the price should be sky high.

A lot of people may wonder in amazement at why suddenly many people have turned into bears overnight, they appear to have lost all confidence or they just disappear and do not post again at the moment.

For newbies you should become aware of the CGT (Capital Gains Tax) rules. These mean that if you sell a stock and re-buy it again within 30 days you must put the original buy value back on the stock.

EG you purchased RKH at 100p and then sold RKH at 320p but 20 days later its 350p and rising and you buy again, your new buy is not classed as at 350p, you must revert back to the 100p price as your buy in price for CGT purpose. You have to wait 30 days and only on the 31st day onwards can you buy back and then claim the new buying price as the starting point.

A lot of people have sold RKH and are looking at taking the profit and using it for CGT purposes - however this means now they are in effect locked out of buying whilst they must wait the 30 day period.

It is only human nature that during this 30 day period they want the price to remain as low as possible so they can on the 31st day buy back in and they hope the buy back is cheaper or at least the same level as what they sold.

This is why you will see lots of strange posts in the coming 30 days (25 for some who sold a little earlier), you will see people missing from posting or you will see a lot of new names deramping like mad.

In the same way PI's complain about institutions shorting shares down ahead of placings (as has been the case here), a lot of PI's are equally guilty of being misleading when it comes to their AIM share buy/sell/CGT issues.

If the rumoured placing at 2.75 is correct and this is done and dusted then the events of last week are put to rest, all the concerns are evaporated and the focus is back on to what RKH have, and that is a lot of oil.

Now, whilst I am totally expecting DES to fail with the sidetrack, by going into the older sandstone they do have a better chance of a charge of oil, so there is every chance DES might come up lucky, but I would not put money on it.

For the CGT sellers the 20 day DES sidetrack is going to be either very nice or very bad.

If DES fail then it may generate some poor sentiment (although it should not as everyone should expect DES to fail) so their 30 day waiting period might coincide with an availability of stock, although I cannot see it as nobody should now be betting on DES to do anything other than fail.

However, the flip side is should DES strike with the sidetrack then all prices are going up, and thats just at the wrong timescale for CGT waits.......

Its going to be fun, the next news RKH holders want now is that a placing is done at 2.75. We might not have wanted a placing but if its done and dusted it draws a line under all the events and all uncertainty is removed in an instant.

So enjoy the ride - (and buy fully paid for stock if you are going to buy).

Pros - read what my post said!

cc'd from XEL thread where I posted incorrectly

Pros - you can't extrapolate (this week's new word for Emu!) like that ...... north sea with infrastructure and south atlantic with none bear no meaningful comparison

cynic, I now, but it shows either just how overvalued EO. is, or just how undervalued RKH is ;)

Anyway, once the placing is done and the news out everything returns to normal.

The FI campaign is just in its infancy, so far even though I was stuffed on my spread on RKH ...I've done very well......bought back into DES, not for the sidetrack but because there are loads of prospects....in fact they could drill right on Rockhopper's border....that would be interesting....so to me plenty of upside for the DES sp......with the massive potential in mind....as for RKH, will be good to get the placing out of the way...and then get the rig back for February,....I cannot foresee them spudding before then.....their sp is more likely to drift a little before then...even if they have some percentage (minimal) of Desire's next spuds......

I wonder how long it can be before the shade of Mr Ashley James appears on this thread.

Or Sue Helen

re - Banned ..... Proselenes?

well almost everyone knows at "moneyam", I came accross that today

Stegrego - 16 Oct'10 - 13:54 - 12243 of 12324
Contindo..
Pro, or Papalpower as one of his previous monikers that got banned by ADVFN, is talking crap about ..................

PAY BACK TIME, Exposing "copy and paste" and rumper

Tricks by childish "Proselenes" no wonder "he/she" was banned and I am not in the list very strange.......


Pro_S2009 - 16 Oct'10 - 15:09 - 12256 of 12325
keya, its quite simple, if they annoy you, filter them.

Failing that, note their names down and in a week when RKH is calm go an visit every thread where they post and post like mad on those threads - its does not do anything, but at least it pisses them off as much as they piss you off, childish yes, but they are childish people......

I simply filter them.

Out of no interest, but here is my present filtered poster list, and they have all earned the right to be on there by their stupid behavior, be it spamming, ramping, abuse, stalking, general stupidity etc..

.......
.......
.......
......
69 nicknames

pot / kettle springs to mind!

Certifiable.

Two old B@stards have nothing to say above

Comparing last 2 week falls on Falkland's shares


money am does not give names to the colours
blue-RKH
red= DES
yello= ARG
FOGL
BOR
"

Merrill Update from Wed. It ties in perfectly with the CANA poster who claimed it was purely the purposely pessimistic GeoPhys designed to eliminate 9 out of 10 potential appraisal well locations that has been taken as "pessimistic" by the CP.

All ties in very well...........and notice how RPS "appear to interpret" and not "have interpreted".

Never mind, it got the price down and the fund raising is done and dusted so move on.......


From Merrill Lynch/BoA


Auditors lower SeaLion ests on limited technical data...

RKH announced that based on limited new technical data (amplitude/offset and preliminary impedance correlation) reserve auditors RPS indicate potential 30% cuts to SeaLion field contingent resource (2C) estimates to 170mmboe (from 242mmboe).

RPS appear to interpret that as sands thin away from the well the distribution of the reservoir could be different from the original estimates. Importantly, we believe that even at this lower level of contingent resources SeaLion is still economically viable as a stand alone development.


...but management remain confident around further upside

In contrast, management interpret the data differently and remain confident that SeaLion still offers significant upside potentially considerably bigger than the auditors estimates as new sand bodies were identified in the lower fan. Given that the data set is work in progress and was meant to evaluate drilling locations and not offer a definite answer on sand thickness, the final answer to the puzzle will only be known after the company drills new holes next year.

Financing additional seismic and drilling
As widely expected, RKH confirmed that it is looking for additional funding for an extensive 3D seismic programme and to secure a rig to drill 3 firm wells (+ 5 optional) in early 2011. We estimate the total cost of the plan at US$100-150m.

Cut NAV by 115p to 585p; risk/reward still positive - Buy

Reflecting lower contingent resources for SeaLions base case (-136p) partially offset by newly identified exploration upside (+21p), we cut our NAV/PO by 115p (-15%) to 585p. Whilst the news are clearly disappointing near term, we continue to believe that SeaLion could ultimately become larger and more valuable than the market appears to price in. As such we still see the medium term risk/reward skewed to the upside and maintain our Buy rating.

MRSI - you are a vituperative old queen at times and it is totally unnecessary

Cynic

Right o repply

You are an STUPIT BITCH all the time and is necesary to say so then.

You are better of saying whow wrong you were on last week deals, no wonder you started the week with a wrong footed BITCH....Early on the Morning

you are funny - silly that is - for all you do is show yourself for what you are

i have no need need to defend myself, and the same applies to all the others on whom you choose to vent your bile