Fallen 25% om profit warning... one to steer clear of..

Down 10% on the report.
Could expect 180p here.

Just gone short on HOMESERVE. HSV Poor Fundys and poor Technicals. Loads of debt. Target 205/200ish.

Brokers turned negative since Interims.

Hemscott premium....

Homeserve PLC

FORECASTS 2012 2013
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Execution Noble
08-02-12 NEUT 127.60 28.10 11.50 111.10 24.10 9.90

Seymour Pierce
08-02-12 RED

N+1 Brewin
07-02-12 HOLD 126.10 26.70 11.30 118.80 25.70 12.20

Peel Hunt
07-02-12 SELL 127.95 27.65 11.33 118.67 25.47 11.33

2012 2013
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 126.28 27.32 11.47 121.88 26.27 12.03
1 Month Change 0.23 0.02 0.06 -1.24 -0.28 0.01
3 Month Change -4.95 -1.14 -0.17 -22.78 -5.02 -1.05


GROWTH
2011 (A) 2012 (E) 2013 (E)

Norm. EPS 20.97% 17.49% -3.84%
DPS 34.25% 17.00% 4.93%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2011 (A) 2012 (E) 2013 (E)

EBITDA £126.64m £135.21m £128.81m
EBIT £106.80m £128.54m £117.09m
Dividend Yield 4.08% 4.78% 5.01%
Dividend Cover 2.37x 2.38x 2.18x
PER 10.32x 8.79x 9.14x
PEG 0.49f 0.50f -2.38f
Net Asset Value PS 8.98p 104.32p 122.61p

Stock was tipped in Investors Inteligence
today as a short and added to their
portfolio.....



Homeserve - is a weak stock and should be shorted. Prices are encountering massive overhead resistance and the path of least resistance is therefor south.

Portfolio Update:

We open a short in Homeserve on its profound price weakness

Interesting to see Evil Knevil is short
down to 200p.

...at least.

Must have a good informant.

Interesting to see IG Index client
numbers short 78%.....................

Client Sentiment

22% of IG clients with open positions in this market expect the price to rise

78% of IG clients with open positions in this market expect the price to fall

Get somemeat on the bone from
Brokers Sells.....................

190p and 220p

Date Broker name New Price Old price target New price target Broker change

08-Feb-12 Panmure Gordon Sell 240.10p 190.00p - Reiteration

08-Feb-12 Peel Hunt Limited Sell 240.10p 220.00p - Reiteration

So present SP 248p so a fair drop for holders.

Got a long signal on this earlier this week signalling a potential new uptrend - fortunately got in before the nice rise today.

..Homeserve rockets up on bid talk

By Ben Martin | Telegraph – 49 minutes ago
investors were piling into Homeserve (Dusseldorf: XHSA.DU - news) after talk of a possible bid attracted buyers to the stock.

The shares surged after The Daily Telegraph reported the company had been approached by private equity firms.

Homeserve denied it had been in talks, saying the group “wishes to clarify that it has not, nor is currently, engaged in any discussions which could lead to a possible offer for the company.”

The market, however, was undeterred, and the shares shot up 20 - or 12pc - to 187p, sending the group to the top of the mid-cap index.

This is still ticking up nicely - happy to hold until the trend reverses and I get an exit signal.

Steve

Homeserve is looking like another recovery candidate, as it put on 52p for a 33% rise to 208p during the month.

The home disaster insurance provider was trashed after the Financial Services Authority launched an investigation into possible mis-selling, and it was forced to stop writing new business for a while. But it's looking increasingly likely that the sell-off was overdone -- the shares have recovered from a low of 137.5p reached in June.

Recent forecasts are suggesting earnings per share for 2013 of around 23p and a dividend of 11.3p, with 2014 estimates around the same. That's a P/E of 9, with a dividend yield of 5.4%, which does not look overvalued.

Still holding this as the trend is still up - dragging my stop along as per my charts. Will hold until exit signal given.

Stopped out today following the sharp fall on profit warning rumours early today.Still, a nice profit taken. On to the next trend...

Among the mid-caps, Homeserve (Dusseldorf: XHSA.DU - news) was strong throughout the day and closed up 8.1 to 220.6p. Dealers said the move was likely a relief rally after the drop the shares suffered last week, when market rumours the company could issue a profits warning knocked the price. However, some traders also pointed out that Homeserve did surge in July on the back of takeover talk.

Homeserve, the FTSE 250 home repair and insurance company, has endured a turbulent few months since admitting it was being investigated by the Financial Services authority over allegations of mis-selling.

Despite the current regulatory probe, Homeserve's financial performance has gone from strength to strength since 2010. In May, it reported a 14pc increase in full-year revenues to £535m and a 32pc jump in profits to £138m, thanks to its international arm. By Telegraph staff
4:32PM BST 23 Sep 2012
Comment
Not only that, but earlier this year, the group knocked back private equity bidders looking to pay up to £1bn to take the company private.

The company is understood to have been approached by buyout groups Cinven, KKR and Apax.

The chief executive, Richard Harpin, who owns about 12pc of the company, will be hoping to convince investors that the next few months will be smoother when the company issues a pre-close trading update on Wednesday.

Despite the current regulatory probe, Homeserve's financial performance has gone from strength to strength since 2010. In May, it reported a 14pc increase in full-year revenues to £535m and a 32pc jump in profits to £138m, thanks to its international arm.

The company carries out an estimated 1.6m repairs each year.

Sold ahead of update

Ex-divi wed 4th Dec (3.63p)

RNS Homeserve anticipate £34.5m FCA fine.

StockMarketWire.com
HomeServe, the international home emergency business, says that, in line with its expectations, HomeServe USA has now reached 2 million customers and 3 million policies.

HomeServe expects to announce its preliminary results on 19 May.