http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Today the share price failed to rise by even a penny, despite the following upbeat statement. Are we being toyed with or what? I feel sorry for those who have borrowed, or gone without, to buy GKP stock.

"With the Shaikan commercial discovery alone, Gulf Keystone has one of the world's largest onshore conventional oil & gas developments with a Pmean 13.7 billion barrels of gross oil-in-place as set out by Dynamic Global Advisors, independent Houston-based exploration consultants. A recent report by Goldman Sachs highlights the scale of the Shaikan development and the fact that in 2015 the global production increase will in part come from the Shaikan field*. The Company continues to be highly active with the drill bit, in order to further prove the value of its blocks.
Today Gulf Keystone is on the verge of moving into a phase of significant production, with the capacity to produce up to 40,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") from Shaikan in the coming months and up to 400,000 bopd in the coming years. The Company will be a key contributor in meeting the Kurdistan Regional Government's oil production targets of 1 million bopd in 2015 and 2 million bopd by 2019.
Considerable progress is being made on the regional pipeline infrastructure development and the Company's increasing production will be matched by the available export capacity. The size and quality of the Company's fields is now increasingly recognised and a number of the world's largest oil companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron and Total, are now following Gulf Keystone's lead and commencing active work programmes in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
*Goldman Sachs: April 12, 2013 - "380 projects to change the world. From resource constraint to infrastructure constraint"
Commenting on today's announcement, Todd Kozel, Executive Chairman and CEO, said:
"As one of the first companies to see the potential of the region, over the last five years Gulf Keystone has drilled or participated in nearly 20 wells and remains one of the most active operators in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Shaikan is the largest onshore development worldwide today not in the hands of a major operator. However, we believe that we have only scratched the surface of the true value of our blocks and our ongoing exploration and appraisal activity is expected to result in further upside."
"The Company is encouraged by recent reports from a variety of sources, including political spokespersons, regarding the close and burgeoning ties between the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and Turkey, which the Company believes presents further transformational progress for the region. In this context, Gulf Keystone will play a major role as a co-host of the 2nd International Energy Arena Conference in Erbil on 30 May, a meeting place for key political and industry decision makers on the energy cooperation between the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and Turkey."
"I therefore strongly believe that there is considerable momentum in the development of Kurdistan's vast natural resources and Gulf Keystone is in a prime position to benefit as the region moves to this next stage."
"Our remarkable journey continues and I remain indebted to our hosts in the Kurdistan Regional Government and to the outstanding team within our Company. We have never been more excited about the future."

The Times Juliet Samuel

Published at 12:01AM, May 3 2013

• Full-year results for Gulf Keystone were delayed yesterday from this month until the latter half of June — but why? The oil and gas explorer, which blazed a trail for rivals in the Kurdish region of Iraq, is telling analysts that the quiet period before results has been accidentally violated. Last week Todd Kozel, the chief executive, inset, transferred ten million shares to a third party in a “financing arrangement”.

Apparently, he forgot to tell the board the transfer was afoot.

Last year it was revealed that Mr Kozel would have to give 17.4 million shares worth £23 million to his ex-wife as part of a divorce settlement, although it is unclear if that is what last week’s transfer was for.

Gulf Keystone declined to comment when we called. End

http://www.iraqoilreport.com/politics/

Kurdistan's Parliament has passed a law that establishes a legal framework for the region's oil-funded economic independence within Iraq's federal system.The legislation seems destined to spark controversy with leaders in Baghdad, who claim primary authority over Iraq's oil sector and have disputed the legality of the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) autonomy claims. Yet it also represents an important statement of unity within Kurdistan, whose competing parties – often at odds – ra...

Peel Hunt changed their "hold" recommendation to "buy" with a 197 target price , citing "
We upgrade Gulf Keystone from Hold to Buy on the basis that the recent price fall now appears overly severe creating clear value upside to our 197p target price (assuming GKP’s PSC equity interest remains unchanged). Interestingly, the current market level of 134p is now 32% less than our overall asset valuation, indicating the market has now effectively priced in the 30% loss of PSC equity being claimed by Excalibur Ventures."

Note from Macquarie today:
Following a share price drop of ~30% since October 2012 (vs FTSE Allshare +13%), we upgrade to Neutral, keeping our target price largely unchanged at 162p.
 Todd triggers a sell-off: Since GKP’s CEO, Todd Kozel, announced he had transferred 98% of his shareholding to a 3rd party to repay a “financing agreement” on 22nd April, the shares have sold off ~20%. We believe Todd’s actions have unnerved the market because i) it takes the CEO’s disclosable shareholding to its lowest point since the Shaikan field discovery and ii) perhaps more influentially, it is being read as a sign of which way he believes the ongoing Excalibur litigation case is likely to go.
 We believe “fully funded” position depends on Shaikan sales: We are perhaps more sanguine on the second of these concerns but our fears about the speed of Shaikan development do remain. This is highlighted by the delay to commissioning of Shaikan PF-1 facilities to the end of 2Q13 (from end 1Q13) and also the belief that even with processing capacity of ~40kb/d by the end of 3Q13, this will not translate into production volumes near those levels (we cite Afren as a case in point). We take some confidence from GKP saying it is fully funded for its 2013 capex programme but believe that capex plans may have been scaled back towards the bottom end of the $200-$300m run rate and with our cautious view on Shaikan production, we still see potential for a $15m capital shortfall by year end (previously $77m).
 Market implying 75% chance of judgement against GKP: Judgement on whether Excalibur is entitled to 30% of GKP’s Kurdistan assets should come any time from early June onwards. We believe that if it loses, GKP’s fair value would fall from our current 162p estimate, down to 123p. Based upon the current share price then of 133p, we believe the market is implying a 75% chance that the judge rules against GKP.
Earnings and target price revision
 Our FY13 EPS falls from -$0.06/sh to -$0.07/sh on lower production however our FY14 EPS increases from -$0.06/sh to +$0.03/sh on lower interest costs.

Price catalyst
 12-month price target: £1.62 based on a Sum of Parts methodology.
 Catalyst: FY12 results (20th June), Excalibur court case ruling (June onwards)

Action and recommendation
 While we see potential for a short-term rally in the shares given the strong sell-off, we would certainly look to lock in profits above the 150p level, and frankly still see too many risks to the investment case for anything more than a Neutral recommendation at this stage.

Ref to the times post,


Investor Relations
17:12 (5 minutes ago)

to me
Dear

We don't normally comment on press articles but to clarify a couple of points on The Times' diary story; the results date was confirmed yesterday and any suggestion of violating close period is nonsense. Furthermore, the Board were of course aware of the CEO’s plans.

Best regards,
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd.

Press conference in Arbil, Nechirvan Barzani, Nouri al-Maliki http://oilgasstocks.wordpress.com/2013/05/03/video-talk-press-conference-in-arbil-nechirvan-barzani-nouri-al-maliki-in-baghdad/

Just came acros this on another board from a regular poster.


GKP IR's follow up response

pathai
9UP
Good morning.

A further email from IR in my inbox.

Working over bank holiday weekend..........sent Saturday 19.18 hrs UK time
----------------------

Investor Relations
01:18 (7 hours ago)

to me
Dear Mr

Further to our response of 3rd May, please be aware that we sent a robust response to The Times and the article was immediately removed from the newspaper's website and its database

Best regards,

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd.

This email and the information it contains together with any attachments to it are intended only for the individual or organization to which it is directed and for no other person or organization and may contain information that is confidential, legally privileged or otherwise protected by law. Unauthorized use, copying, disclosure, dissemination or distribution of this email, its contents and any attachments to it may be unlawful. If you have received this email in error, please contact us immediately by email.

Kurdistan Regional Government

An ocean of reserves waiting to be tapped

By Guy Chazan, the Financial Times

Richard Lowe faces a dilemma most oilmen can only dream about: what on earth is he to do with 14 billion barrels of crude?

Mr Lowe’s company, a small London-listed explorer called Gulf Keystone, found the oil in question in Shaikan, in Iraqi Kurdistan, in 2009. It was one of the world’s largest onshore discoveries in more than 20 years.

Stretching for miles under a ridge of brown, rugged hills near the Turkish border, Shaikan is huge. Yet its sheer size is problematic. “The big question is – where do you start?” says Mr Lowe, Gulf Keystone’s drilling manager. “The field is almost too big.”

Oil finds such as Shaikan have made Kurdistan, an autonomous region in the north of Iraq, one of the biggest draws in the global oil industry. It has attracted $10bn in investment from foreign oil companies – a vast amount for a country of only 4.9m people.

“It is almost the only place in the Middle East where the private sector can explore virgin territory,” says Tony Hayward, the former chief executive of BP who runs the Kurdistan-focused oil explorer Genel Energy.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The full post

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&it=le&action=detail&id=10583963

sp starting to rock along and on heavy volume too ...... no announcements and prob nothing to get excited about, but worth watching

Is now on the move UP WITH SPIKE after the profit taking of yesterday 150p +5

From yesterday.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/update-on-move-to-official-list-of-the-lse/201305290700077372F/

And todays,

0 May 2013



Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)

("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")



Commercial Discovery in Ber Bahr-1 Exploration Well



Gulf Keystone notes today's announcement by Genel Energy plc ("Genel Energy"), regarding a commercial oil discovery at the Ber Bahr-1 exploration well on the Ber Bahr block in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Genel Energy, as operator, made the following statement:



"The Ber Bahr 1 well original TD was 3933m in the upper Permian Chia Zairi formation. It encountered good oil shows over a c.300m interval in the Jurassic. Two drill stem tests over this interval failed to flow. The original well has now been successfully side tracked and in several tests, conducted over a period of days, achieved a sustainable flow rate of 2100 STB/day of 15 API oil from the Middle Jurassic age Sargelu Formation."



The operator has also stated their intention to begin a phased development of the field in the second half of this year.



Gulf Keystone and Genel Energy both hold a 40 per cent working interest in the Ber Bahr block. The Kurdistan Regional Government has a 20 per cent carried interest in the Ber Bahr Production Sharing Contract.



John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer, commented:



"This is another significant discovery and the fifth across the four blocks the Company has an interest in. It comes during an exciting year for the Company as we move towards becoming a significant producer in

http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/commercial-discovery---ber-bahr-1-exploration-well/201305300705028504F/

From WHI:-

Gulf Keystone~ (GKP) – Buy
Market Cap £1.2bn Price 152p Target 315p

- Genel Energy (N/R) who operate the Ber Bahr-1 exploration well (40% stake) have announced a successful side track well achieving a commercial flow rate of 2,100bpd (of good quality 15 API in the Middle Jurassic age Sargelu formation.

- Gulf Keystone own 40% of this exploration well, where we have a value of 6p/26p (risked/unrisked) value to our total NAV of 315p. We view this announcement combined with yesterday’s announcement of the company’s intention to seek a main market listing which will require a splitting of Chairman and CEO roles (under listing rules) as positive for the stock which has underperformed significantly.

- We believe a resolution of the outstanding legal case in the commercial court in London in June will mark the end of a significant impasse for the company and lead to a significant re-rating. The company’s confidence that it is seeking a listing on the main market underlines our belief that this impasse will be overcome successfully. Operationally and financially the company is well positioned, and we therefore maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of 315p

Nevertheless, the broker above said: "Market implying 75% chance of judgement against GKP" so it's a bit of a lottery which way this goes.

Hi harry,so the SP has a egative result built in? If it goes against GKP,i believe an initial dip might happen,if however the judgement is positive then the reverse would be the case.
But the true value of a company which has the largest structure in the world(outside of the Super majors,ref; oilbarrel), is the key to where this company will go?imho

Yes, that was written in early may when the sp was about 130p, so assuming a 25% hit if the judgement goes against, sp would just nudge under 100p. At the moment I prefer to trade GKP rather than hold long term, so these kinds of details matter, but of course you are correct, imo, that the long term prospects are potentially very good.

Just came across this,interesting.


From iii - greedandfear

Firstly, I wonder how many people will shoot me down this time, with more of my "generic insight"?
Anyway, I will post this to provide more information to the sensible masses out there.

At the recent IRaq Energy conference in Abu Dhabi, there were some interesting attendees, including Dr Mohammad Al-Gailani - a Director from GeoDesign Ltd. One of his previous clients just happened to be GKP and he did make reference to the find at Shaikan being 10 billion plus. he admitted that he was erring on the conservative with that value.

Also in attendance were employees of Iraq State Oil Company and interestingly, it appears that the Iraq government has signed some oil contracts with companies based in Kurdistan. They would not confirm who they were with...but nonetheless I thought that it was interesting that they were doing business with companies based in the region. So, maybe there is a route for the oil through Iraq.

Reference was also made to the amount of oil reserves in Iraq / Kurdistan). The scientists in attendance were referencing 300 - 400 billion (not proven) and one guy [a geologist] even implied that the true number is probably somewhere significantly north of this point. I will not quote the value as I will look like a ramper.

With all the political noise from south, it would appear that Kirkuk (1 million barrels per day potential) would like to join the Kurdistan bandwagon. No doubt it would not be allowed by Baghdad but it appears that the success of the Kurds is attracting attention from elsewhere.

I could post lots more but some of it is commercially sensitive.

From Fox Davis

BUY--350p

Management’s disclosure that Ber Bahr is commercial (30th May 2013) is a significant step
forwards, but what isn’t clear from this announcement is the size of the reserves, what the
development will look like, i.e. how many wells will it need, what infrastructure will be required
(in addition to what is already planned for Shaikan and Sheik Adi) and more importantly,
whether the payback period will be; not all profitable barrels are equal.
While there is infrastructure planned in this part of the world, and Ber Bahr’s development
could be dovetailed in with that of Shaikan and Sheik Adi, there could also be a scenario where
the Company elects to dispose of its interest in Ber Bahr, completely or partially, in order to
fund its share of costs for Shaikan’s and Sheik Adi’s development.
Nevertheless, this is a positive update, and one that supports our existing 350p Target Price,
which we are maintaining until we get further details on Ber Bahr.
We are also reiterating our BUY Recommendation.

Its now all about the credibility of GKP's management.